in4thelonghaul

Does Immunomedics' Success Mean Human Genome Sciences' Failure?

HGSI's drop was primarily a market reaction to news that the GSK buyout rumor was false...apparently per GSK statement indicating they were not in active negotiations with HGSI.

IMMU is roughly 2 years behind HGSI, and is yet to achieve positive P-3 results...a very very big difference from success in a P-2 trial.

BTW, HGSI also has a healthy pipeline, including a treatment for Hep-C and a treatment for post-inhalation anthrax exposure...a very tough nut to crack, which the U.S. government has placed 2 orders for; the operative word here is "post" as in after exposure. Trial results indicate this anthrax treatment, called ABthrax, likely allows roughly a 50% chance of survival for an indication which is usually fatal.

At this point...IMMU presents no threat to HGSI.

Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom

That was supposed to read BIIB & ELN....NOT "BIIG"....Biogen and Elan.

Expiring Patents Ignite Biotech Boom

Another factor involved in the motivation of BP to acquire smaller developmental biotechs, besides existing drugs and the pipeline, is the repatriation of huge amounts of cash currently being held overseas as well as the debt which these biotechs have accrued over the years...these can be directly applied as tax deductions to BP.

A few examples of likely acquisitions are BIIG & ELN for the Tysabri franchise and the attractive pipeline.

Dendreon (DNDN) is another independent biotech which BP has been closely watching; their lead candidate 'Provenge', for the treatment of end-stage prostate cancer, has multi-billion dollar potential not to mention the incredible value of their cassette technology which may hold promise for multiple types of cancer. Results of the interim evaluation for Provenge are expected in October...if sufficiently positive, Provenge could receive an FDA decision by 1Q09. Considering DNDN's SPA with FDA, seems highly likely that numerous BP players will be tripping over one another to either cinch a ROW partnership with Dendreon or make an outright acquisition upon very positive interim results. Upon positive interim, DNDN's sh/pr could easily reach $25.00 as it did once before following the FDA's Advisory Committee results in 2007. In the event of interim results only sufficient to guarantee trial continuation to its likely 2009 conclusion, the high short interest, stable financial base (for a bio-tech), healthy inst. support, plus incredible prior efficacy indications are likely to insure a sh/pr floor of approx. $3.00...where it will be the opportunity of a lifetime.

GNVC is another small biotech whose upcoming results with TNFerade could create an overnight 5-bagger or trigger a buyout offer...at $1.35sh the risk/reward seems highly favorable considering the pipeline and past preliminary indications of efficacy.