jmmx

Europe's Biggest Newspaper Forcing Purchase of Its iPhone App

Someone will create a little app that will change the "What-am-I" object in iPhone browser to be something else when accessing those pages. It might be that simple.

(This assumes that that parameter is available to change and that Apple allows the App.)

Alternatively, someone could set up a website that loads the hidden pages indirectly.

Quest for the Droid Crowds: Not So Epic

LOL

A fun read.

Apple Gaining Ground in Smartphone Race

@ hardymaine:
"And for you gross margin folks RIMM's gross margin is about 10 points better than AAPL."

One reason for that is that while Apple is mainly a hardware company, RIMM gets a significant portion of income from its subscriptions which have much higher gross margins. So the comparison may not be fair.

Three Myths About Business in China

China will undoubtedly take over from the USA as the world leader economically. This is due not only to the fact that they are the most populous country, but also that they are more disciplined both nationally and individually, and - very important - they understand rwo things about education:
1- It is important, &
2- it requires dedicated work all throughout school - beginning to end.

Most Americans do not understand this. They are way too lazy. I work in software/hardware industry. Why do we NEED to import so many engineers? (who are very well paid) Are indians and chinese, etc really so much smarter than Americans? Not really. It is just that they are willing to work at their education, while Americans just cruise and whine and the parents let them do it.The society has what I call a "culture of mediocrity" when it comes to education. This in spite of the fact that most teachers work very very hard at trying to provide a stimulating lesson.

Unfortunately, the Bush administration sold America out to the Chinese and OPEC countries with his enormous deficits and pro-oil politics.

Three Myths About Business in China

@ jasper M
You say: "And how long will 'upity' labor prevail once economic growth drops below population growth?"

you are talking through your hat dude - the population growth rate of China is 0.66 % less than USA at 0.98% and almost 1/3 of India @ 1.5%. So I imagine that they will not have to worry too much about what you are saying for quite a while.

- as for "drafty house" I do agree with you there, but somehow I think they will avoid the extreme into which we have sunk.

The Problem with iPhone Killers

@CGP
You say: "Apple has basically just locked in their loyal following..."

What planet are you living on? Most iPhone and iPod owners are on Windows computers not Macs. If you want to argue that anyone who buys an iPod/phone automatically falls into the category "their loyal following" then your argument is tautological and thereby tells us nothing.

In fact, iPhone arguably owns the largest share of the smartphone market if you define smartphone as a cell phone device designed to provide a realistic access to the internet. (I.E. a window large enough to do more than trivial tasks). This fact is verified by the enormous share of mobile web browsing owned by iPhone/Touch.

In light of this, your comments are ridiculous.

Calculating Apple's 2010 EPS

Stefan

As for typos - you really should be very careful. It looks so unprofessional - you lose credibility.

Calculating Apple's 2010 EPS

WOW - a lot of work!

Just one caveat - be careful of gross margin when they go to non-deferred accounting. I seem to remember that several items that typically come out before g.m. are pushed to operating expenses on iPhone - e.g. Advertising, etc. (That came from some early conference call.)

Why Apple Is Worth $80

Fly in ointment #2-

All your messing around with EPS. "... the hiighest EPS estimate was 8.68"

If you use the non-GAAP figures from Apple, and make a reasonable guess at next quarters (I used last Q + 20% which is very low for the last 2 years) then you will arrive at $11 for THIS calendar year.

The current price is then a P/E of less than 20. This is not extraordinary for a fast growing company.

You can see my figures at:
seekingalpha.com/user/...

Why Apple Is Worth $80

Seems to be a well thought out article but I personally se a couple of flies in the ointment.

First-

It seems most of your models rely on "terminal growth rate." This is a tricky thing here. We all know that Apple will not increase at this rate forever. No one expects Apple to own the whole universe in 25 year, which is what it would at its current rate of growth. (Well, maybe 50 years - you can do the math.)

Let me make an analogy here - tho granted it is a bit forced. We all know that each of us humans is going to die. So we each have a terminal growth rate of 0. Now let us suppose that in 1987 you applied your formulae to both me and to Brad Pitt, in that year he played a party goer in "Less than zero" So there we were, I in grad school and Pitt in "Less than zero" your analysis would have put our stock at the same price, since we both had negligible income and both would reach 0 TGR. I wish my income were just a slightly larger fraction of his than it is now.

My point is simply this: what happens in between NOW and reaching your TGR happens to be important. For you seem to imply that two companies with the same TGR should have the same value even if Co A is already at their TGR and Co B will double before reaching it.

Some of us feel that Apple will continue to grow at a high rate for several years to come. Hey - just go back in time to 2003, AAPL = aprox $20. Now apply your models what you get? Probably that Apple will be worth only $20 in 2009.

---- Myth BUSTED! ----

Can Apple Be a $300 Stock?

Implications of #1 above:

Let us use non-GAAP numbers:
We have FQ2-4:
1.84
2.14
3.12
------
7.10 $ = nonGAAP EPS so far this calendar year

over passed 2 years Dec Q has exceeded Sept Q by:
74% and 41% (this is for GAAP) So let us take a conservative 25% increase (over $3.12) as estimate for next quarter non-GAAP = $3.90.

This gives us an even $11 for Calendar year 2009 EPS. (again, non-GAAP)

(Today Yahoo has PE = 35.87 GAAP)
At todays price of roughly $205, the non-GAAP PE would be 18.6.
At a price of 300, the PE would be: 27.3.

Just a few numbers.

Can Apple Be a $300 Stock?

Some interesting things to note:

2:

At least for the last two years, never has Apple's Fiscal Q4 (Sept) EPS exceeded the FQ1 until now ($1.82 vs $1.78) and did so handily. In the past, FQ4 always lagged FQ1 significantly (e.g. 2008 $1.26 vs $1.76)

In terms of revenue -
FQ4 revenue lagged that for same year FQ1 by 17 - 20%. This year by a mere 3%.

Conclusion:
Growth is accelerating. (Although one might argue that this is due to the bad economic environment last December. The environment now is still not all that great!)

Can Apple Be a $300 Stock?

Some interesting things to note:

1:
From Apple's statement:
>> Adjusting GAAP sales and product costs to eliminate the impact of subscription accounting, the corresponding non-GAAP measures* for the quarter are $12.25 billion of “Adjusted Sales” and $2.85 billion of “Adjusted Net Income.”
---

That is $3.12 EPS.

Sometime soon Apple will switch to new accounting rules that will allow the most of iPhone sales to be booked when sold.

When the Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get an Apple

@ WWiz

Of course you are correct that a lot of successful people are using PCs an BBs. I don't think this article should be taken in the extreme - only to show that there is good reason behind Apple's success now. This success is a trend - not an absolute.

You are also right - to a degree - in asking for statistics. True, there are no stats I have ever heard of that directly address the issues discussed here. There are a couple of things however that should not be overlooked.
1- Apple just sold more Macs than in any other quarter. (Here is an undeniable stat.)
2- It is an almost universal feeling among people who have switched to Macs, that they find themselves being more productive because they are not fighting the computer all the time. (You see this repeatedly in comments to posts such as this.) This goes directly to the point of the article.

Best of luck to you in all your endeavors, whatever platform you prefer.


On Oct 22 01:06 PM Wireless Wiz wrote:

> Unless there is empirical evidence to back this up, this is just
> a fluff piece. While I agree with the notion I don't think it is
> quite so cut and dry. Many highly successful people use a PC or
> a Blackberry. I'm sure this will be picked up by all the zealot
> Apple fan sites like Macdailynews, etc. as gospel. (next: Apple
> fans will tell me how/why I'm wrong with choice language!)

When the Going Gets Tough, The Tough Get an Apple

You write: "It's not about brand religion or pretty graphics."

YES!! This is what Mac aficionados (NOT fanboys!) have been saying for years. It is gratifying to see that the message is sinking in!