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Mark0f0

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  • Silver Is Shaping Up To Be The Best Precious Metal Play Of The Decade [View article]
    Metals rose throughout the 1970s, partially as a refuge against losses in long-term bonds and rising rates.
    May 27, 2015. 03:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM passes on merger offer from Fiat Chrysler [View news story]
    Just cuz you say it three times, doesn't make it true.
    May 25, 2015. 04:43 AM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends At A Reasonable Price: Toronto-Dominion Bank And Royal Bank Of Canada [View article]
    Oh really? Banks loaning more money than many people could possibly ever pay back, often a multiple of the original purchase price of a house, had nothing to do with it?
    May 25, 2015. 03:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends At A Reasonable Price: Toronto-Dominion Bank And Royal Bank Of Canada [View article]
    You can sorta use Teranet data, but the methodology means that it has quite a significant lag between actually showing price changes, and those price changes actually occurring. After all, Teranet is effectively an integrating (low-pass) filter if you look at how they derive it.

    I agree with you, the CREA "data" is very selective on what they actually release, and they basically have a vested interest in casting themselves in the best light possible. Recently they "claimed" that house prices went up some crazy figure in Canada, but the real economy tells quite a different story.
    May 24, 2015. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Share Price Means That Everyone Else Is The Winner [View article]
    I stand corrected..
    May 23, 2015. 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Share Price Means That Everyone Else Is The Winner [View article]
    Battery designs? Good lord, most of Tesla's packs are just 18650 cells cobbled together. Literally hundreds of them.
    May 23, 2015. 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends At A Reasonable Price: Toronto-Dominion Bank And Royal Bank Of Canada [View article]
    Doubtful. Their behaviour isn't showing it either, as consumer austerity is accelerating. Most houses in Canada have lost value in the past 2 years.
    May 23, 2015. 03:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends At A Reasonable Price: Toronto-Dominion Bank And Royal Bank Of Canada [View article]
    Well Flaherty lowered CMHC subprime standards to facilitate 0% down/40 year amortization mortgages coming under CMHC subprime insurance circa 2006 or so. And there were a number of tightening moves in the 2010-2013 timespan. There's a few chronologies of CMHC's activities in the subprime market available out there -- basically put, under Flaherty there was severe expansion in government's involvement in the subprime credit marketplace through the CMHC, and Flaherty moved to crack down on that in Budget 2013 by making it clear that there would be no expansion of the $600B authority of the CMHC to insure subprime mortgages (in addition to the ~$300B of 90% reinsurance of 3rd party subprime mortgage insurers such as Genworth Canada, an authority which was minorly expanded).

    This CIBC paper, particularly Figures 6 and 7, clearly show the dramatic shift in the sales mix thus induced:

    http://bit.ly/1F2ISe8

    Most of the price growth has only been at the very high end. The 'average' Canadian, who owns a house far less than $1M, has barely seen an increase over the past few years, and is now seeing decreases. Hence the increasingly weak economy.
    May 23, 2015. 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends At A Reasonable Price: Toronto-Dominion Bank And Royal Bank Of Canada [View article]
    BTW, the peak of the housing bubble in Canada was the severe crack-down on subprime mortgage insurance at the CMHC by the late Jim Flaherty, Minister of Finance, in Budget 2013. Just as the peak of the US housing bubble, in 2006, was the subprime mortgage lenders in the USA saying "enough".
    May 23, 2015. 03:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends At A Reasonable Price: Toronto-Dominion Bank And Royal Bank Of Canada [View article]
    Realtors put out a lot of propaganda, but just as US house prices peaked in 2006, Canadian house prices peaked in 2013. There was a lot of denial 2006-2008 in the US. There's a lot of denial 2013-present in Canada. The sales mix of US housing shifted dramatically circa 2006-2008 causing the sales averages to remain relatively robust even though subprime was in melt-down. Similar is occurring in Canada, affecting consumer demand quite significantly. Despite the CAD$ dropping almost 20% over the past year, there has been almost no price growth on Canada's import basket because demand is down that much.
    May 23, 2015. 03:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends At A Reasonable Price: Toronto-Dominion Bank And Royal Bank Of Canada [View article]
    Rents would have to be rising in Toronto for the prices to make any sense. And they're not. Toronto/Vancouver RE is priced like a dot-com stock, but only grows roughly at inflation.

    Also remember that all those immigrants arriving, make up a significant chunk of the labour force for the construction industry. Given there are no land constraints anywhere in Canada (greenbelts can be revoked with the stroke of a pen if demand exists in excess of supply), immigrants arriving also has an effect on the supply side of the equation. Canada is in a RE bubble because of loose lending practices largely facilitated through CMHC subprime mortgage insurance being granted quite liberally. Prices have been falling for the past 2 years, ironically on account of government tightening of CMHC subprime mortgage insurance rules.
    May 22, 2015. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends At A Reasonable Price: Toronto-Dominion Bank And Royal Bank Of Canada [View article]
    There will be an opportunity at some point. In the 1990s, the big crash in the banks was when bank mergers were rejected. This time around, its CMHC subprime political issues that will likely cause something. But otherwise, they are fundamentally solid long-term money printers.
    May 22, 2015. 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends At A Reasonable Price: Toronto-Dominion Bank And Royal Bank Of Canada [View article]
    Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Regina. Etc. Pretty much all across the country prices have been falling. The averages have only been propped up by a shift in the sales mix (ie: median rising much faster than the mean).
    May 22, 2015. 03:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends At A Reasonable Price: Toronto-Dominion Bank And Royal Bank Of Canada [View article]
    5-6% annual is pretty insane for a return over the past 20 years. The long-term historical return on RE is approximately the rate of inflation.
    May 21, 2015. 05:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends At A Reasonable Price: Toronto-Dominion Bank And Royal Bank Of Canada [View article]
    Don't even need that. The reason prices are falling in Canada for RE, and have been for the past 2 years is because supply has caught up with demand.
    May 21, 2015. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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