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Gary Logsdon
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I currently have resided in the Pacific Northwest (Oregon) for over 10 years. I began trading stocks in 1986 and have studied stock split predicting since 1998.
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  • Does Hansen's Natural Have Juice Left in it's Stock Price?
    Hansen's Natural is a leading marketer of all natural sodas, fruit juices, juice drinks and energy drinks such as Monster Energy. The Brand has been recognized nationally for over 70 years and has enjoyed a loyal consumer following for its high quality, delicious all-natural beverages.

    Goldman Sachs reported that Hansen's Natural (HANS) is among the top candidates for takeover because of the increased pace of M&A activity in the consumer staples sector. The rumor about a possible takeover of Hansen's Natural with bidders such as Coke (KO), PepsiCo (PEP) and Anheuser-Busch (BUD) as likely bidders are making their rounds again.

    From the start of December into January, Hansen's has established a clearly defined trading trend for the past 10 years. With an average gain of 19.5% during this period for the last decade, Hansen's stock price appears to have some juice left.

    December 09 into January 10 up 18.56%
    December 08 into January 09 up 22.89%
    December 07 into January 08 up 5.75%
    December 06 into January 07 up 38.99%
    December 05 into January 06 up 33.03%
    December 04 into January 05 up 24.26%
    December 03 into January 04 up 12.23%
    December 02 into January 03 up 4.71%
    December 01 into January 02 up 14.25%
    December 00 into January 01 up 20.39%

    Disclosure: I have no position in Hansen's Natural stock.


    Oct 28 12:19 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Trading Almost Family Shares (AFAM) in December 2010

    Almost Family, Inc.provides home health services in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Visiting Nurse and Personal Care. The Visiting Nurse segment provides a range of Medicare-certified home health nursing services to patients in need of recuperative care, typically following a period of hospitalization or care in another type of inpatient facility. The Personal Care segment provides services in patients' homes on an as-needed, hourly, or live-in basis.

    For the first six months of 2010, Almost Family reported net income of $15.8 million, or $1.69 per share, diluted, compared with $11.6 million, or $1.40 per share, during the same period in 2009. Revenue for the six-month period rose nearly 17 percent, to $167.4 million from $143.5 million during the year-earlier period.

    Almost family also disclosed inquiries by the U.S. Senate Finance Commission and the SEC related to its home health care services and Medicare home health reimbursements. Medicare reimbursements are determined partly by the number of at-home therapy visits a patient receives, and an extra fee kicks in beyond a certain number of visits. Questions are whether some home health care companies are taking advantage of Medicare reimbursements.

    The company has clearly established a trend of always closing higher than it opened every December for the past 10 years and this year should be no different. With the stock sitting towards its 52 week low and now consolidating, Almost Family shares may be a trade to look at this December.

    DateOpenHighLowCloseClosing Gain

    High
    Gain

    Dec-09
    Dec-08
    Dec-07
    Dec-06
    Dec-05
    Dec-04
    Dec-03
    Dec-02
    Dec-01
    Dec-00
    36.48
    43.96
    19.33
    30.48
    15.34
    11.60
    8.80
    5.28
    14.30
    3.12
    42.31
    51.00
    19.50
    43.90
    16.09
    14.85
    9.46
    7.33
    16.34
    4.34
    36.27
    39.33
    17.12
    29.15
    15.04
    10.25
    7.91
    5.28
    14.15
    3.00
    39.53
    44.98
    19.43
    43.82
    16.00
    14.73
    8.95
    6.94
    15.95
    3.56
    8.36%
    2.32%
    0.52%
    43.77%
    4.30%
    26.98%
    1.70%
    31.44%
    11.54%
    14.10%
    15.98%
    16.01%
    0.88%
    44.03%
    4.89%
    28.02%
    7.50%
    38.83%
    14.27%
    39.10%


    Disclosure: I have no position in Almost Family Shares (AFAM)
    Tags: AFAM
    Sep 03 1:06 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average Market Crashes

    When one thinks of Dow Jones Industrial Average market crashes, October 1929 and October 1987 come to mind. Although the DJIA ended the month (-20.36 Percent) in 1929 and (-23.22 Percent) in 1987, September 1931 ended the month down (-30.70 Percent).

    Looking through market data from October 1928 to present, there have been 33 market crashes over 10 Percent and a total of 415 down months on the DJIA. While October had 6 of these 10 Percent or higher crashes, September had 5 and has closed the month down 14 more times than October.

    Clearly, both September and October have had terrible monthly closes on the DJIA but September is the worst month to own the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

     

    Dow Jones Industrial Average Data

    10%+ Market Crashes

    Total Negative Months

    Sep-31
    Apr-32
    Mar-38
    Oct-87
    May-40
    Oct-29
    May-32
    Jun-30
    Dec-31
    Feb-33
    May-31
    Aug-98
    Sep-30
    Oct-32
    Nov-73
    Oct-08
    Sep-02
    Apr-31
    Sep-37
    Feb-09
    Nov-29
    Sep-01
    Nov-31
    Oct-30
    Jul-33
    Mar-39
    Sep-74
    Aug-74
    Oct-37
    Dec-30
    Jun-08
    Mar-32
    Aug-90
    -30.70%
    -23.68%
    -23.67%
    -23.22%
    -21.55%
    -20.36%
    -20.26%
    -17.72%
    -16.58%
    -15.60%
    -15.03%
    -14.99%
    -14.77%
    -14.14%
    -14.04%
    -14.03%
    -12.33%
    -12.28%
    -12.23%
    -11.72%
    -11.42%
    -11.05%
    -10.96%
    -10.96%
    -10.69%
    -10.50%
    -10.42%
    -10.41%
    -10.41%
    -10.26%
    -10.19%
    -10.02%
    -10.01%
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    28
    37
    33
    35
    39
    41
    31
    32
    49
    35
    33
    22

     

    Sep 03 10:56 AM | Link | Comment!
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