Shad Bell

6 Comments

    • ON: Wed Jun 6th 09:36 AM
      Commented on:
      Aurizon Mines: Riding the Gold Breakout
      Aurizon is covered by a mining gaming company. 49th West Investors Group's target price for Aurizon is US $6.27. The POG they used is US $618. It's looking good.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Oct 25th 21:36 PM
      Commented on:
      Gold vs. Stocks: Merely a Short-Term Advantage To The Metal
      Eddy, have you heard the saying, "what have you done for me lately"

      finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...;t=5y&l=on&...

      The HUI is the AMEX gold bug list and it is outperforming the DOW by more than 300% in the last five years. I think a changing of the guard is in the works, wouldn't you say.
      View article »
    • ON: Wed Oct 25th 21:30 PM
      Commented on:
      Gold vs. Stocks: Merely a Short-Term Advantage To The Metal
      Eddy, have you heard the saying, "what have you done for me lately".

      Copy and paste the following chart:
      finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...;t=5y&l=on&...

      The HUI is the AMEX gold bug list and it is outperforming the DOW by more than 300% in the last five years. I think a changing of the guard is in the works, wouldn't you say.
      View article »
    • ON: Sun Aug 27th 13:05 PM
      Commented on:
      Gold: Heading for a Trainwreck Due to Oversupply?
      J P, actually I am part of an investment club of around 50 members. Just as Phil is advising through his articles we are shorting gold stocks at this time, so I’m certainly not alone in this camp. We are presently entering our positions.

      Phil, I understand you fall into the “short” category as well, but I’m questioning your logic on the central banks being able to depress the gold price. Our group reasoning for a drop in the gold price is geopolitically oriented. We expect tensions will be forced to calm down rather than escalate and this will affect the gold price downwards. We see a $50 war premium in the price.

      You mention value then we must take history into consideration and indisputably gold is recognized as the currency of last resort. Today the dollar is the world’s reserve currency however; our huge trade deficit and extremely high debt levels (8.5 trillion) may be affecting its status. If we were to sell all the worlds’ known gold at today’s prices we would still only generate 1.7 trillion dollars.

      Any doubts about US creditworthiness could cause foreigners who have been supporting us to stop or slow down their purchase of US debt, actually it could have the inverse effect in which they start to dump their dollars in lieu of diversification. I believe there are rumblings coming from top brass in Russia and China on this very topic. The only two other paper currencies that are large enough to function as the world’s reserve currency are the euro and the yen, but neither are attractive alternatives to the dollar. With its inefficient, tax heavy, socialistic economies the euro is a doubtful successor and with a decade and a half of deflation on its balance sheet the yen is hardly the answer. So what does that leave us?

      Is it possible that we are being set up and brainwashed into trusting that it’s the central banks that are going to be the cause of supply when in reality maybe they will be or are the foundation of demand of gold. I mean let’s not forget for a “barbarous relic” only a few years back gold was at $250, so who the heck has been accumulating over the years?

      Think of it this way, let’s say you are in the market to buy a house you found in a favorite location and ten of your co workers are looking for the same kind of house in the same location, are you going to disclose your discovery before your offer is accepted?

      I did a little research and found that in the 50’s the percentage of reserves held in gold by the largest central banks was over 86% and yet today it’s only around 14%. Without a rock-solid paper currency for these banks to rely on, is it possible that the central banks are gold’s future buyers? I am thinking about this now and after applying some basic math to the possibility of this scenario unfolding, I discovered that just a small increase in the banks holdings could have a weighty impact on the price of gold.
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    • ON: Tue Aug 22nd 23:12 PM
      Commented on:
      Gold: Heading for a Trainwreck Due to Oversupply?
      Phil,

      Can you tell me at what time of year jewelry demand is at its highest? Also is it possible the dollar is losing its grip as the world's reserve currency?

      Like you I'm short gold stocks, but admittedly questions like this are starting to keep me awake at night.
      View article »
    • ON: Tue Aug 22nd 18:25 PM
      Commented on:
      Gold Bugs, Don't Dig In Too Deep
      Hello Phil,

      What happens this fall when people realize that employment is falling and their companies are now placing pauses on open positions? I'd suspect the dollar will drop and the FED will freeze in the face of unemployment. Ask yourself if it hasn’t already begun..

      Do you realize what gold’s seasonality chart looks like over the last thirty years? If you don’t, check here www.seasonal-charts.co.../

      I look forward to your bearish call on gold as I am short gold stocks, but must admit I am somewhat nervous.

      Great blog, keep up the great work.
      View article »
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