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SpoiledRottenBrat

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  • AbbVie's 2-DAA regimen achieves 95% cure rate in Japanese HCV-1b patients [View news story]
    Revenue from Japan for Sovaldi scripts will appear in Q2 2015 earnings reported for the first time in July 22 2015 if I'm not mistaken.

    USA Sovaldi+Harvoni TRx have been running a steady 11,800 scripts for 13 weeks in a row, and although this looks like a peaking point, there is no competition in HCV space coming until First Q 2016.


    This means Q2 2015 EPS of $3.00 is more likely than not, and FY 2015 EPS of $12.?? is also probable.
    May 27, 2015. 10:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AbbVie's 2-DAA regimen achieves 95% cure rate in Japanese HCV-1b patients [View news story]
    I think the Japan Society of Hepatology in Kumamoto, Japan know Harvoni w/o ribavirin is superior, don't you?
    May 27, 2015. 09:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anthem faces lawsuits as it moves to minimize coverage of expensive hep C meds [View news story]
    The girl is right. She should get the medication to cure her HCV. Hope she gets it now for free in a settlement.
    May 26, 2015. 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Still A Buy [View article]
    Looks like TRN has abandoned the production and sale of the ET Plus, in favor of these... http://bit.ly/1FuXnfa

    A good move IMO.

    Wonder how this affects the ill begotten legal suit overseen by Judge Rodney Gilstrap? Don't you think the STATE DOT are ordering the new energy absorbing products at this time?

    The FHWA, the State DOTs still support Trinity. The case against Trinity's guardrails is a "hoax" that runs right through the Federal courtrooms in Marshall Texas. I think the DOJ will come to the same conclusion - if given enough time.
    May 24, 2015. 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Bought The Dips In Both Gilead And Achillion Today [View article]
    Great write DoctoRx as per usual and the comments by the entire peanut gallery were just as valuable IMO.

    JNJ says it plans 10 new drug filings through 2019, each with a potential to reach $1B in annual sales. BUT, Harvoni+Sovaldi will do better than that in 2015 alone http://bit.ly/1KCgkwZ

    Standard & Poors say they are encouraged by JNJ's positive 4-1/2 YEAR looking forward outlook but view its goal of 10 filings as optimistic.

    TRx Scripts for Harvoni+Sovaldi are due out Friday. Q2 2015 TRx script numbers are still running 1,500 pw higher than Q1 / 2015. That's a 14.28% increase for Q2 over Q1 2015. TRx numbers have now been over 11,000 weekly scripts for 12 weeks in a row. EPS of $12+ for GILD in 2015 inthehouse IMO. EPS for JNJ about $6.20+ for FY 2015 on more than twice the annual revenues of GILD.

    The ACHN and JNJ deal looks very interesting and "perhaps" bound for big success someday, but the better "mouse trap" is already out there .. .. HARVONI - the practically perfect mouse trap! Numbers don't lie.

    JNJ has twice as many shares outstanding (2.8B) as GILD (1.48B). Maybe JNJ should buy a B shares back.

    GLTU
    May 20, 2015. 08:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New guardrail test rules close criticized loophole [View news story]
    The guardrail issue is a big overhang, even though the FHWA is supporting the ET Plus guardrail still.. http://1.usa.gov/1BbEatR

    The basic concept of all the guardrails manufacturers (as well as the FHWA TTI, etc.) has always held "public safety" as the number one priority. However with all the horrible publicity surrounding the ET Plus in and outside the court room, I don't believe you will see new ET Plus' on American highways again - even though the FHWA still provides the STATE DOTs with Federal reimbursement funds if they choose to install them.

    Trinity has a new line of guardrails for America's highways and you can bet the FHWA has given approval for federal reimbursement $$$dollars to the STATE DOTs for these products? http://bit.ly/1FuXnfa

    For investors though, TRN has beaten analysts Consensus EPS estimates for 14 consecutive quarters going back to February 2012 (4th quarter 2011). The current consensus for Quarter #2 2015 due July 29th is $1.09, and that EPS number will likely be beaten as well IMO.
    May 20, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trinity Industries: Still A Buy [View article]
    TRN has beaten analysts Consensus EPS estimates for 14 consecutive quarters going back to February 2012 (4th quarter 2011). The current consensus for Quarter #2 2015 due July 29th is $1.09, and that EPS number will likely be beaten as well IMO.

    I agree with you that TRN is a solid and profitable company, but the guardrail issue is a big overhang, even though the FHWA is supporting the ET Plug guardrail still.. http://1.usa.gov/1BbEatR

    I noted recently that TRN's website is carrying a different line of safety devices for highways. http://bit.ly/1FuXnfa

    The basic concept of all the guardrails manufacturers (as well as the FHWA TTI, etc.) has always held "public safety" as the number one priority. However with all the horrible publicity surrounding the ET Plus in and outside the court room, I don't believe you will see new ET Plus' on American highways again - even though the FHWA still provides the STATE DOTs with Federal reimbursement funds if they choose to install them.
    May 20, 2015. 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New guardrail test rules close criticized loophole [View news story]
    New Trinity Guardrails.

    http://bit.ly/1FuXnfa
    May 20, 2015. 06:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Can't Gilead Run? [View article]
    Blue Cross is being sued for not providing Harvoni news-release... http://prn.to/1S1KAWS
    May 18, 2015. 12:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Senator's HCV Rant Won't Slow Gilead [View article]
    Blue Cross is being sued for not providing Harvoni prnewswire.com/news-re... http://prn.to/1S1KAWS
    May 18, 2015. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Can't Gilead Run? [View article]
    Pharma Doc, Somedata1 and Dothemathman:

    Here are the “corrected” TRx numbers I found this morning for May 8 2015 (usually published on a Friday). I don't like the term "breakout", but these are break away and steady numbers.

    I think DTMM’s EPS guesstimate could be right on the money for Q2 2015 – well above Consensus $2.66. Q2 script numbers are still running 1,500 pw higher than Q1 / 2015. That's a 14.28% increase for Q2 over Q1 2015.

    http://bit.ly/1L17I2l

    Harvoni: Prescr. figures for wk ending 5/8 (Symphony/BBG) : TRx@ 9,772 NRx@ 4,299
    Sovaldi: Prescr. figures for wk ending 5/8 (Symphony/BBG) : TRx@ 2,125 NRx@ 848.

    Total TRx for Sovaldi+Harvoni = 11,897

    THIS REPRESENTS TRx numbers over 11,000 weekly scripts for 12 weeks in a row. Holy CATS!

    Viekira: Prescr. figures for wk ending 5/8 (Symphony/BBG) : TRx@ 849 NRx@ 419

    ..
    ...
    ...

    JAN
    01/02 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 1525 + sovaldi 594 = 2119 TRX 1 day NEWYEAR's
    01/09 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 7119 + sovaldi 2078 = 9197 TRX - total NRX 4454
    01/16 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 7035 + sovaldi 1917 = 8952 TRX - total NRX 4305
    01/23 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 7049 + sovaldi 1913 = 8962 TRX - total NRX 4450 MLK/wk
    01/30 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 7811 + sovaldi 2009 = 9820 TRX - total NRX 5220
    JAN average 8977 TRX x 4.5 =39050 TRX
    ======================...
    FEB
    02/06 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 8455 + sovaldi 2326 = 10781 TRX -total NRX 5296
    02/13 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 8306 + sovaldi 2095 = 10401 TRX- total NRX 5339
    02/20 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 8759 + sovaldi 2221 = 10980 TRX- total NRX 5432
    02/27 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 9580 + sovaldi 2101 = 11681 TRX- total NRX 5561
    FEB average 10960 TRX x 4.0 =43843 TRX
    ======================...
    MAR
    03/06 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 9450 + sovaldi 2162 = 11612 TRX- total NRX 5352
    03/13 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 10007 + sovaldi 2112 = 12119 TRX- total NRX 5445
    03/20 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 9932 + sovaldi 2063 = 11995 TRX- total NRX 5264
    03/27 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 10106 + sovaldi 1984 = 12090 TRX- total NRX 4686
    04/03 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 10080 + sovaldi 2060 = 12140 TRX- total NRX 5403
    MAR average 11990 TRX x 4.5 =53956 TRX

    APRIL
    04/03 GILD Harvoni's scripts were(10080 + sovaldi 2060 = 12140 TRX- total NRX 5403)/2 = 6000
    04/10 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 9730 + sovaldi 1997 = 11727 TRX- total NRX 4833
    04/17 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 9726 + sovaldi 2094 = 11820 TRX- total NRX 4945
    04/24 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 9801 + sovaldi 2146 = 11947 TRX- total NRX 4863
    05/01 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 9784 + sovaldi 2105 = 11889 TRX- total NRX 5138
    APRIL average 11,862 TRX x 4.5 =53383 TRX
    ======================...

    MAY
    05/08 GILD Harvoni's scripts were 9605 + sovaldi 1758 = 11363 TRX- total NRX 4244 IMS data
    05/15 GILD Harvoni's scripts were
    05/22 GILD Harvoni's scripts were
    05/29 GILD Harvoni's scripts were
    ?MAY average 12000 TRX x 4.0 =48000 TRX

    Compliments: Data for entire year from http://bit.ly/1L17icw
    Note: Gileadscienceshareholder blog will likely revise their May 8 figure which was published late last Friday and LOOK WRONG!
    May 18, 2015. 07:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Is Poised To Break Out [View article]
    "The US capacity limits will be challenged and we think that capacity limit is around 300,000 patients per year. That nevertheless implies, still many, many years of patients to be treated in the US" - Paul Carter, Gilead Sciences, Inc. - EVP, Commercial Operations

    "There is no doubt there is a flattening of weekly scripts in the US." - Paul Carter, Gilead Sciences, Inc.

    To the SRB this means that GILD in the coming quarters of 2015 (2nd, 3rd and 4th Q 2015) EPS should easily exceed $3.00 per quarter, and EPS for 2015 will come in above $12 (an excellent 50% improvement over 2014 EPS of $8.00). So, TPs of Analysts like Jeffrey Loo of Standard and Poors (Standard and Poors gets more coverage from any investment service in the World), of $143 seem very doable IMO.

    Don't count out S+P as a leader and driving force of the price for Gilead Science.

    Note too. GILD has beaten analyst Consensus 11 out of the last 12 quarters. This coming Quarter 2/2015 Consensus is $2.66 (which WILL be beaten again by 50 cents IMO).

    EPS is the most important number driving any stock's price upwards.

    GILD is still a very long term hold even if it looks like a one trick pony. http://bit.ly/1KCgkwZ
    May 17, 2015. 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Is Poised To Break Out [View article]
    13302632 Yes. I agree China won't be like Japan ($43,000 a script???), and I put a (?) after the script cost in my comments.

    "The cumulative HCV-2 market in Japan is valued at $9.3B." So, China still could be a big revenue producer when it's all said and done. Singapore is another "tiger" that wants the Harvoni/Sovaldi CURE.

    And while I don't understand the pricing methodology at all, it seems to me governments all over are/will stepping up to the plate for this one to help out in what is otherwise a great humanitarian discovery/effort.
    May 14, 2015. 02:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Can't Gilead Run? [View article]
    Like Secretariat dressed up like Silky Sullivan - a 100 to 1 shot in the KD? Don't ya just love ponies like Silky? http://bit.ly/1JKvteN
    May 14, 2015. 09:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Can't Gilead Run? [View article]
    Pharma Doc... Looks like it's going to RUN RUN UP today to all time 2015 HIGH.

    GILD doesn't need the pipeline you and many analysts speak off right now IMO. Wishful thinkers don't add up to much, says I.

    Credit Suisse analysts just got terminated for downgrading GILD (on pipeline well wishers and slowing Sovaldi+Harvoni sales predictions).

    Harvoni+Sovaldi is the real and only key ingredient... outselling everything GILD sells ten fold! http://bit.ly/1KCgkwZ

    Watch the weekly TRX Scripts tomorrow. Harvoni+Sovaldi TRx around 12,000 spells out $3.10 EPS inthehouse IMO for next quarter.

    A pre 2nd Quarter move NOW to $115/$120 would not be unusual IMO. With Harvoni' growing cured patients (90,000 patients in Q1/2015 WW) - doctors and patients EVERYWHERE have to be excited and grateful.

    Finally, China will pay for Harvoni+Sovaldi just like Japanese just have ($43,000 a script?) , and when that is announced sooner than later, watch the stock run to $130.

    Short sellers are going to get massacred very soon for their troubled lives and their wrong "guess" on GILD stock performance. It's one thing for GILD to payout a nice dividend NOW, quite another for a bunch of BIG SS to have to pay the GILD dividend for being on the wrong side here.
    May 14, 2015. 08:37 AM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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