argosy

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 2

Techtrader10,

A couple of things. The mp3 player market was awash in players shortly after the iPod entered that market. So being "awash" in smart phones historically doesn't seem to be much of a barrier. In the case of the iPhone it is probable a help, given the competition.
Currently, most people (in the US) with "smart phones" either have an iPhone or a Blackberry. That comparison for most consumers is a win for the iPhone. Sure there are others who have other smart phones, but the chances are slim that we run into more than one or two people using the same "other" phone.

People need to remember that AAPL started the calender year 2009 at $78.20/share!!! Um...so not sure why there is any reason to be upset it can't stay above $200/share in the short term. It just broke $200 late October and it is only November 6th...

Not saying Jason went into any depth as to how he got the $500/share number, but there is no arguing that there is TONS of market share to be had by both the iPhone in the mobile space and Macintosh computers in the PC space...

Cheers,
Argosy
Way long AAPL

Google's Android vs. Apple: History Repeats Itself

It's important to think why Google has Android. Was it to get into the mobile device market? No! It was to make certain mobile device makers had an alternative to Windows Mobile.

Google makes nothing on Android it is merely a conduit for mobile search and services. If anything Apple is an ally. Google makes as much off every iPhone in use as it does Android devices in use.

Google obviously has Android to ensure MS never gets out the huge hole they have dug for Windows Mobile. matter of fact what can MS do to sell their mobile OS? Free versus any $ is going to be a really hard sell. If Android gets much more traction (and it obviously will with DrOID), WinMo is probably dead.

Android has the same disadvantages as WinMo has as far as having to rely on multiple device makers to release compelling hardware and the fragmentation multiple manufactures make for third party software developers.

Android in all it's various renditions may surpass the number of iPhones in a few years, but I wouldn't be willing to bet much on it. The iPhone/iPod Touch ecosystem is huge. Apps, Music, movies, tv shows...etc. Not that alot of this isn't or won't be available elsewhere, but it is now for the iPhone and pretty painless to use.

The iPhone is competitively priced and if the growth curve continues (of both the iPhone and iPodTouch), what single mobile device manufacturer will be able to get the kind of component prices Apple is already undoubtedly receiving? Is Motorola going to be able to pump out 30 million DrOIDS/year anytime soon?

I welcome competition. This will only make all mobile devices better.

Just remember why Android exists....

Cheers,
Argosy

Apple's Solid Triple Play Will Be Hard to Beat

Jack Dee,

I agree with your point of Apple (not really) having 90% of the >$1000 market. Just remember though, most/many of Apple's computers are also sold online at their own web site not through their BM stores. Would you accept they have a very significant amount of the >$1000 computer market? Even 30-40% would be astounding.

That said, there is no arguing Apple is definitely closing in on Microsoft's annual revenues. Still has a ways to go, but they have made significant headway there and in market cap too....So Market share is not all that when it comes to financials....

There's no arguing Apple will be lucky to top 10% market share with their business model (focusing their efforts almost solely on the consumer end of the market with no real effort spent selling on the corporate end). The good news is (if you are an APPL investor), there is a lot of market share out there.

As an investor I only care Apple has enough market share to remain relevant (and they have proven that 4-5% is enough) and most importantly they are able to make money with that market share, and there is no arguing they can do that even in a shitastic economy.

Argosy

With Vonage App, Apple Isn't Even Bothering to Lie Anymore

Michael,

I think you're still missing something. If Apple is, ' scared out of their mind of Android and Google Voice...", by denying Google Voice (GV) aren't they strengthening the Android brand (and every other phone which incorporates GV)?

The only outcome of denying GV is to prolong adoption (if it turns out to be as useful as promised) at the great risk of strengthening all iPhone competitors in the mean time. A very short-sided strategy indeed (and also not very Apple-like, the short sidedness, that is)

What risk is there to Apple if GV becoming ubiquitous? The phone carriers are definitely threatened by GV, but I don't see how it threatens Apple and the iPhone? It seems to help strengthen whoever implements it best.

I am as confused about Apple not accepting the GV app. as every one else.

I would love to hear what you think.

Cheers,
Argosy

Microsoft: Whistling in the Dark

JackDee,

I'm not so sure market share is what you should be looking at, especially as an investor. Apple is closing in on Microsoft financially. Let's take a look at operating income.

Per Google Finance:
in 2006 MSFT's operating Income was 6.5 times greater than AAPL's.
In 2007 MSFT's Operating Income was 4.6 times greater than AAPL's
In 2008 it was only 3.5 times greater

Their fiscal year seems to be about 3 months different, so Apple hasn't reported 2009 numbers yet. MSFT has and it fell about 9% YOY.

As you say, if Apple has only 1-2% market share, imagine what kind of dough it will be pulling in with 8-10% share....

Argosy

iPhone Apps' Launch of Siri XM: A Powerful Combination

I'm long Apple, but the author did not seem to hit on what could really be a big thing for Sirius XM and the iPhone/iPod Touch.

Apple announced that the next version (3.0) of the OS for the iPhone/Touch will allow developers access to either wireless and/or wired third party hardware. Even though the Sirius/XM iphone application available is solely for internet based Sirius/XM content, it will be possible for Sirius/XM to release an antenna (not sure if any other special hardware would be required?) which you "connect" to an existing iPhone. All the user interface would be via an iPhone application.

Sirius can have their iPhone cake and eat it too. Sirius XM could give away the "hardware" piece and iPhone application to access it only to those who sign up for satellite service! Okay not quite as slick as being built in, but the next best thing.

Cheers - Argosy

iPhone Apps' Launch of Siri XM: A Powerful Combination

I'm long Apple, but the author did not seem to hit on what could really be a big thing for Sirius XM and the iPhone/iPod Touch.

Apple announced that the next version (3.0) of the OS for the iPhone/Touch will allow developers access to either wireless and/or wired third party hardware. Even though the Sirius/XM iphone application available is solely for internet based Sirius/XM content, it will be possible for Sirius/XM to release an antenna (not sure if any other special hardware would be required?) which you "connect" to an existing iPhone. All the user interface would be via an iPhone application.

Sirius can have their iPhone cake and eat it too. Sirius XM could give away the "hardware" piece and iPhone application to access it only to those who sign up for satellite service! Okay not quite as slick as being built in, but the next best thing.

Cheers - Argosy

Is the Love Affair with the iPhone Over?

I believe RIMM has sold something like 50 million Blackberries. Apple has sold something like 17 million iPhones. What has been unknown until recently is that Apple has sold about 13 million of the iPod Touch. This brings the grand total of basically the same hardware/OS combination to 30 million!!

How long has RIMM had to sell those 50 million BB's? About 7 years? Apple has sold 17 million +13 million Touch in just 2 years

I don't think the love affair is over, as Camden posted, it is just getting started.

Argosy

Is the Love Affair with the iPhone Over?

Does traffic to the support or online help section of the phone specific portion of the manufacturer's web site get counted as well?

That might explain why RIMM was able to sustain the "online momentum".

Is the iPhone SDK 3.0 Really All That?

Zach,

I'm really surprised you don't see the dock connector access as "groundbreaking".

Would you care to expand on why you think this isn't a big deal while most other tech bloggers see this as one of the biggest deals?

I mean, if a company makes anything with sensors, or actuators or both, the iPhone becomes the controller and or data logger. You just provide a cable/bluetooth/wifi, and code a bit of software for the App store, and there you have it. You could monitor your cars engine controller, your home thermostat controls, home automation system, any type of medical device/sensor, make it a really big view finder for your camera/DV camera, data logging, all sorts of diagnostic tools, portable chemical analysis tools....Sure these things could be done with a laptop, but a laptop doesn't usually fit in your pocket.

By the way, I'm sure Apple felt it a good idea to release 3.0 software ahead of any new hardware, just to give developers a chance to wow every one when the hardware is released....

The Battle Lines Are Drawn in the War for Mobile Developers

Miamicanes,

I agree. Short term Microsoft needs to worry most about Android. It is a competing OS to Winmobile and it is free. MS will have to come up with something really compelling to entice handset/carriers to pay for an OS when Android is free for the taking.

In the long run Apple needs to worry about Android. Apple will combat this with:
-close control over hardware (ie. making sure that most if not all incarnations of the iPhone operate similarly and can run most if not all the current applications).

-Legacy tie in. Current iPhone users are becoming addicted to the App. store and will think twice about abandoning their current apps when upgrading to a new phone (one of MS's saving graces over the last couple of years on the PC side, how ironic ;v)

-Remember, Apple's purchase of PA Semi? Apple now has "control" of it's own mobile processor destiny. Even if everyone catches up on the Mobile OS, iTunes syncing, and App store fronts, Apple could have unique hardware/processor capabilities

Lastly
-Remember Apple's lead in the music/movie/podcast and movie rental download side. The tremendous success of the App. Store has kind of overshadowed their success in that arena. The iPhone is still a kick ass iPod!

Regardless of what Apple does with it's "lead" in all these areas, the ensuing battle is going to be great for all of us!

Cheers,
Argosy

Another Salvo in the Apple vs. Microsoft Ad War

George T.

Some things you can do on a Mac you can't do on a PC:

Seems obvious, but a Mac can run OSX as well as Vista or XP. All on the same machine.

Write applications for the iPhone. SDK does not work on a PC.

Nokia Gets No Respect Against Apple, RIM

I'm not a technical wizard, but there are several already big (and getting bigger) moats which Apple is building.

Can't really expand an what I read about OSX, but seems no other mobile OS can match OSX on iPhone. True or not, I don't have the technical background to argue either way.

The big ones are the Apps store (and the developers that come with it), and iTunes store (iTMS). If the Apps store plays out like it seems to be doing it will be to the iPhone what the iTMS is to the iPod. Sure one can load music on an iPod several ways, but it is just so easy to find and buy new music on the iTMS, that is what I do 90% of the time. Now how much better would an iPod 'killer' have to be to get me to move off of iTunes and learn a different system/ecosystem??? Pretty F*%#ing good.

Now in two years how many Applications am I going to have on my iPhone??? Free or ones I've paid for? How good is a 'smartphone' going to have to be to move me off the iPhone??? I'm not even mentioning the fact that now my iPhone is my MAIN iPod!!!

This is Apple's game to lose as far as I can see. I have an iPhone and I love using it but, I don't pretend it's perfect. Certainly don't see anything that will rival it in the next 6-12 months.

Even if you don't have an iPhone, as a potential Apple investor, go visit the Application store within iTunes on your computer. Just browse through all the different categories. Tell me there is nothing there that looks compelling! A lot of the apps there are games and silly do-nothing-real-useful type of Apps, but keep digging... Many of the early applications have already been updated, refined and have new features added and the Apps store has only been open for a couple of months. Wait till the more mature/complex applications really hit the apps store...

Sure other phones have Apps, maybe even a lot of Applications, but hardly any one I know looks for them or even know where to look for them.

Cheers...

High-Def DVD Standards War Intensifies

jswede,

Blu Ray (BR) plays standard DVDs as well. Why would you suggest they do not?

Since Steve Jobs is on Disney's board and it's largest shareholder, I think he will do his best to prevent the HD-DVD format from being one which Disney offers.

Besides, with the all those Sony PS3s out there, I think it is only a matter of time before we see BR purchases and rentals follow.

Personally, I think this is a format war which will be won by some sort of digital download rental service (even at the lower resolution 720p) with BR and/or HD-DVD becoming less important. As much as the studios would hate this, people just don't buy that many DVD's priced over $10-$15.