Seeking Alpha

blueice

blueice
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View blueice's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • A Bullish Case For Petrobakken Energy [View article]
    Thank you, John, as PetroBakken is just a questionable divy payer with very poor leadership...

    Time has come to spud management...
    Apr 5, 2013. 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Uptrend [View article]
    ts2, for about two months with an entry costs of $68.oo...
    Apr 5, 2013. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Only 88K New Jobs, But Unemployment Rate Falls To 7.6% [View article]
    I do applaud CONgress and the BO administration for reducing the workless numbers...

    If you can not do it physically then do it statistically...

    They should also mandate one employment per household as addressing the worklessness issue..
    Apr 5, 2013. 12:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks Uptrend [View article]
    We are taking it in the shorts with our TBT position...
    Apr 5, 2013. 11:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surge Energy: The Baby Has Obviously Been Thrown Out With The Bathwater [View article]
    VD, I did and I am not allowed to purchase from a Canadian exchange...

    For trading purposes, our minimum is at least 100k volume per day, which it does not do...We need a Surge in trading volume in order to take a position in this stock...
    Apr 5, 2013. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Is Not Pushing Stock Prices Higher [View article]
    Mr Fuller, check the chart, it appears to me that commods have staged a very strong rally...

    http://bit.ly/XhO4ZT;template=
    Apr 5, 2013. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Iamgold Edition [View article]
    Amillionto1, plenty of us thought this was a good miner...IAMGLAD, that I never got my entry price...
    Apr 5, 2013. 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Be A 'Doomsday Prepper' [View article]
    The author bashes his own name...
    Apr 5, 2013. 01:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Your Gold And Silver Now [View article]
    K, I am not sure of either questions...
    Apr 5, 2013. 12:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surge Energy: The Baby Has Obviously Been Thrown Out With The Bathwater [View article]
    uwdawg, thank you for the helf, unfortunately I can only only trade the American exchanges...
    Apr 5, 2013. 12:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter's $401 Million Eagle Ford Sales To Penn Virginia Helps Both Companies' Growth Plans [View article]
    I second that notion, Mr Rulli!
    Apr 4, 2013. 10:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Bullish Case For Petrobakken Energy [View article]
    blueiceJanuary 29 at 9:21am Dear Mr (redacted):

    After reading this article, Mr (redacted), it left me with a rather clear view of PetroBakken.

    What is there to like about this company? Well, a number of different things especially if one does not dig below the surface.

    An excellent yielding dividend, a low stock price for the level of production, a massive land holdings and over (2009) 2350 drilling locations!

    Now let's look at this piece, the author, the COE and the company itself.

    The author made several factual error and conducted a Q&A session, which mainly featured softballs questions and too much misinformation.

    We took a position in the company solely base on it's Bakken play ($10.47). Our position was stopped out in short order ($10.15).

    The author states that production grew from 39k to 52k from August of 2012 to January 2013; however, production in the third quarter of 2009 was 45k, so the the addition of 7k of goo over three years is less than impressive. The reader is being mislead.

    COE Wright, referring to the $900 million in senior unsecured notes says, "The after tax cost of this debt is very attractive and much better than issuing expensive and dilutive equity." So how does, Mr Wright, explain that in 2009, the outstanding equity was 110 million and today the shares level is 190 million? A 75% dilution of equity in three years!

    One has to ask why the company drilled more wells in the last quarter of 2012 than they will for the entire upcoming year?

    The author then states, that the cost to drill in the Bakken (North Dakota) is $3 million per well, when in fact it is about $10 million on average.

    The COE, Mr Wright, said he spoke with US Bakken O&G, who do not think they can make money with oil at $80. I would like to know which company or companies he spoke with, as it is well known fact that production costs are in the $50 to $55 range. Any oiler would have to be insane to work a play that requires a minimum of $80 oil. I wonder how Petrobakken would make a profit, in light of the fact it is only getting $67 for each barrel..

    Either the author or Mr Wight says, "Where PBN is paying a 5% royalty on its production the American producers are paying 25%."

    If this is true, then they are drilling only on Crown land. That royalty rate, is limited to 4 years or 100k in production, whichever comes first. In fact, according to PBN financial statement of 2011, their royalty rate was 16%. Furthermore, the customary royalty rate in America is 12.5% or 1/8.

    Talk about insulting shareholders with this outlandish statement, Mr Wright says, "Personally he doesn't mind the drop [share prices] as it allows him to increase his personal ownership of PBN through the share purchase plan." Not only is this comment contemptible but raise the question of his leadership and competence. Since 2009, when the stock was trading at $33, it has lost as much as 70% of its value in past three years. A no vote of confidence for Mr Wright, as well as for the writer's lack of follow-up as to why.

    The COE, is also please with 10% production growth. Again, another vote of no confidence.

    The number of wells drilled has utterly collapsed, from 2010 140 wells, to 75 wells in 2011 and 2012, to a projected 32 net wells in 2012. This will lead to no surprises on either the top or bottom line.

    Another reason for pause would be some very lack luster metrics; profit margin of 4%; return on assets of 1.5%; a return on equity of 1.2%. A large debt of $1.5 billion, almost equal to it's marcap.

    Petrobakken, needs to drive revenue much higher and or reduce costs to increase share prices. Should oil prices fall to lower levels ($40 to $50), it will be forced to reduce it's dividend and begin to show bottom line losses.

    I have no confidence in management nor in their further plans. I believe this company will continue to under preform the industry and should not be purchased. Moreover, the management needs to be removed as soon as possible. It's production numbers do not inspire any confidence from me.

    There are simply too many publicly traded O&G companies, to accept bottom tier producers.


    Be well,
    (redacted)
    Apr 4, 2013. 09:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Your Gold And Silver Now [View article]
    Kvatchik, when I read industrial users are having a difficult time for filling their orders, then I will believe it...

    For the main, it is just Internet prop...
    Apr 4, 2013. 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Surge Energy: The Baby Has Obviously Been Thrown Out With The Bathwater [View article]
    VD, one year ago it was a 10 buck stock...

    Even if I wanted to buy this company, its daily volume is much too low !

    Being on the Pink Sheet is another negative, as well...
    Apr 4, 2013. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken Update: Buy The Pullback [View article]
    Delighted to read your material again, Mr Filloon..

    We exited our TPLM position because over 60% of their lease holding is in Montana...If this area does not produce good wells, this company will gravely disappoint..Its Bankken land holdings, in North Dakota, is to small for our liking...

    KOG, we back off the entry price of 9, then 8.5 and we are now preferring your previous stated entry of $8...In the past three years, it has spent little time under the 200ma and when it did, it was a short two weeks...Lower stock levels, would require a management impairment or lower crude prices. On the other hand, the market appears not to like 100+ pricing, so at this point only earnings will drive industry stocks higher....For those that prefer a virgin play, this company would be your preferred choice....

    NOG, fat profits (ssshhhh) and another Bakken virgin play...

    CLR, (no not the rust cleaner) is the BIG granddaddy of the Bakken...
    Chuckster, this is one of the best O&G in the good old USA! Mr Hamm, is also one the best COE in the industry, as well...I missed my entry point in 2009, by 4 dollars...Their land holdings are MASSIVE!

    Frankly, I am rather surprised how resilient goo prices have remained...It has greatly benefited the Bakken play and the good people of North Dakota..

    Go Fighting Sioux!
    Apr 4, 2013. 09:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
3,894 Comments
3,150 Likes