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  • Abraxas Petroleum - A Great Value Stock [View article]
    Alex, great post indeed!! Professor Hughes' dissertation is must reading
    for any energy analyst; whether one agrees or not.

    You makes numerous good points, including the unlikelihood of a price
    recovery...Your points of R.I.V. production increases is a refreshing and
    new thought, not expressed on SA.

    I also concur, that certain marginal producers will be saying goodbye; as
    the market place culls out the inefficient businesses.

    One point of contention, however, is the pricing of junior producers...
    IMHO, they shall always carry a premium because of their growing assets
    and the chances that some of them may join the top tier...I have a great
    deal of confidence that Mr Hamm and Continental will join that rank.

    However, that premium shall decline or rise with the price of goo.

    Alex, since you are much more knowledgeable than me, I look forward
    to your publication(s)...I am now one of your followers! Please, bill my
    credit card.

    Be well and a most Jolly Christmas to you and your beloved family.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra Petroleum: Buying This Cheap Natural Gas Play [View article]
    Gem, neither! Natty is collapsing with the oilers..We will have to
    experience record cold weather in both Jan and Feb to see a recovery
    in natty stocks.

    A warm period of seven to ten days in either months, will destroy any
    chance of a price recovery.

    The odds grow longer each and every day. UPL, could go to single digits.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead: What's Ahead In 2015 For This Biotech Juggernaut [View article]
    On several of Mr Jensen threads, we called for GILD to reach $85.oo per share
    and CBI now called Chicago Bridge & PigIron, to fall to the $35.oo level...It was
    at $56 bucks when we closed our positions.

    Call it luck or counter intuitive.
    Dec 22, 2014. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Roulette: Taxpayers Could Be On The Hook For Trillions In Oil Derivatives [View article]
    Jason, the fact dat the author has not responded is very telling.
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abraxas Petroleum - A Great Value Stock [View article]
    AOS, last night I scanned Part A (about 150 pages) on the shale oilers.

    The Professor makes a very convincing case! Excellent presentation as well. And you are correct, as this report makes for a fine reference and data base..It should be archive!

    Many of the facts are indisputable...Depletion; replacement spuds to maintain production levels; well costs; and marginal lease-holdings and
    the mistrust of EIA's projections.

    His arguments are compelling BUT.

    He suggests Peak Bankken by no later than 2020..I am no petro expert and never shall be so my thoughts are conjecture...There are others whom could make a better case than me.

    I believe, Professor Hughes, Peak Bankken will be incorrect...It will come much later...

    There are several issue that I will raise...Number one, it was suggested that shale oil production can cost as much as $95 p/b..I would find it completely irresponsible for an oiler or investor to fund any enterprise under those cost structure..

    Another omission, is the fact that all oil plays leave a vast majority of goo in the ground..Yes, most plays decline in production but that does not mean that every last barrel of oil was extracted...If it were there would be cause for alarm.

    Further, the projections into the future (as long as 2040) uses only today's technology, thus making it extremely likely dat the Professor Hughes' own projections will be faulty.

    Moreover, the shale industry was driven by high energy prices, which can not be modeled...If these prices were to reach new levels, so too would
    shale oil production.

    It is possible to project five or perhaps a decade, but to model to 2040 is strictly an invitation to disaster in forecasting...If the data points change (and they will) the projections will fail and badly so.

    The only way Professor Hughes will be correct, if there are no or little advancement in the oil sector, a rather depleting outcome.
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Roulette: Taxpayers Could Be On The Hook For Trillions In Oil Derivatives [View article]
    Jason, this is just another of hundreds of articles warning
    "folks" of another derivative disaster.

    Why do they never happen? I think it is due to a high level of CO2
    in our atmosphere.

    As for the Ruble, it has turned to Rubble because Putin has overplayed
    his hand...The House of Saud has no nukes, but does have many more fold in reverses than the USSR.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abraxas Petroleum - A Great Value Stock [View article]
    Alex, it is 300 hundred pages long!? This will take some time..

    However, this first topic how wong and ineffective the EIA is, is
    something I can agree with.

    Thanks for the links.
    Dec 21, 2014. 09:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Markets: Sentiment And Lame Thinking Are Currently In The Driver's Seat [View article]
    Mr Teodor, thank you for your frank post.

    Those expecting a quick return to the 100 buck level are going to be
    disappointed..It will only happen with a market disruption event.

    For patient investors and E&Ps whom can maintain a reasonable IRR,
    the future will be kind and rewarding.

    You are indeed correct, that the oil market is cycling as it has before
    and the strong shall survive and prosper.
    Dec 20, 2014. 12:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abraxas Petroleum - A Great Value Stock [View article]
    AOS, my views are very simple..Allow the free markets to dictate
    the course of events and not Scientists like Mr Fridlley.

    He is not the least relevant because he is a social re-engineering scientest.

    From his website:

    " The Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Department analyzes U.S. and global energy consumption and the associated social, economic, and environmental impacts, including human health, greenhouse gas emissions, and global climate change."

    He is hardly independent as you claim.

    As for the URRs, most of the data has been culled from the Esteem SA writer, M. Filloon.

    PCI, by it's name, is not Carbon friendly.

    BTW, AOS, could you give any URRs from your source?
    Dec 20, 2014. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Markets: Sentiment And Lame Thinking Are Currently In The Driver's Seat [View article]
    Very well put, Lake!

    It will be very interesting what goo will be selling for on the 4th of July.
    Dec 19, 2014. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Immense Opportunity' Is Not In Exxon, It's In Small-Cap Oil Stocks [View article]
    OAS, up nearly 60% from it's lows...WRES, up almost 100% from it's low.

    Holey Cow, the author was indeed right!
    Dec 19, 2014. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abraxas Petroleum - A Great Value Stock [View article]
    AOS, I am sorry, however, I do not read anything from the PCI; as I view most of their material as propaganda.

    It is possible and has it happened that E&Ps have over estimated
    their URR - sure thing..But the market will quickly take these firms
    to task and destroy their common stocks.

    The fact remains, that in the shale plays, as technology improves so
    does production and the URRs...Moreover, most shale plays payback their
    drilling costs in 24 months or less..In some cases it is 12 months or less.

    PCI, tends to examine negative issues, rather than what will drive efficiency and improve production and lower costs; which has been the
    historical norms.

    These fools had to use Post in their title thus stating their biases and narrow vision.

    There will be a few bankruptcies, but this is not usual in a boom and bust cycle.

    The professions and the agenda of PCI are also bankrupt as well.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Low Can The Price Of Oil Plunge? [View article]
    Mr Wolf, is the only author whom has the nerve to ask
    how low oil will go and stay..

    It is a refreshing narrative verses reading about a "v" shape
    recovery.
    Dec 19, 2014. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Does A 'Typical' Oil Downcycle Last? [View article]
    Rip, great retort for the unconvinced!
    Dec 17, 2014. 12:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Long Does A 'Typical' Oil Downcycle Last? [View article]
    Red China, a command economy, has done this before with
    other comods, only to drive price down.

    Cotton, last year, was their latest victim.
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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