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C44

C44
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  • Around The World In 184 Days [View instapost]
    Chris I sent you a personal message on this I just got back from PR for 10 days with the wife on an "exploration" mission. Thank you again for the information!
    Jun 13 03:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After reviewing Herbalife's (HLF +3%) short interest data, DA Davidson analyst Tim Ramey ponders whether Bill Ackman has thrown in the towel and "boxed" his short position on the stock. One option Ramey postulates is that Ackman may have sold deep in-the-money European-style put options to a counterparty, thereby significantly reducing his short exposure but allowing him to continue saying he hasn't covered. The pain has got to be great for Ackman right now on this one, the stock's total return is already pushing well over +40% YTD. [View news story]
    18+ points and climbing.

    Lieberman and Nielsen > Ackman

    Easy to pick on the weakest kids on the block (MLM), not like anyone with a brain in their head things he did anything with HLF than save his 2012 performance returns. So if you believed from the very beginning that it was exactly what Ichan called him out for, it has been a fantastic 2013.

    Strange that all of the "shorts" are gone. No articles, guess Ackman doesn't have enough profit from this position to continue spreading "disinformation" about the company by paying people to write articles.

    Fusion Research was right on course months ago. Thanks Bill, my 25,000 shares appreciate it. Not selling until at least another 15 points, should be an interesting summer.
    Jun 13 02:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shame On You, Apple [View article]
    Don't let common sense get in the way of the argument. The author actually did the math on a $5,000 per year contribution (as if that was ever a possiblity to anyone other than the author).
    May 1 08:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Around The World In 184 Days [View instapost]
    Chris once again, I cannot say thank you enough.

    I read this article late 4/15/2013 and of course was dealing with the accountant most of the day, only to file an extension. The usual due to the complexity of my father's death, land in 3 states, etc.

    After reading this yesterday I did some research and found a couple in Colorado that is also making this move (for much different reasons, honeymoon emotional). But describes the home buying process, numerous visits, areas, where they settled, etc. There are others, I found this to be the most "current."

    Since I am a fellow Coloradoan I have reached out to them and am hoping to setup an appointment with them to discuss their experience in full.

    http://bit.ly/10cuimB

    Found this link that may be beneficial. In the position I am in this is a no-brainer. Now I just need to convince my wife to leave the mountains of Colorado for the beach.

    http://bit.ly/11eYV6x

    I cannot say thank you enough for bring this to my attention. I saw an article about Paulson previously and didn't pay enough attention, I see he is thinking of doing the same thing.

    I am going to discuss this with my accountant and attorney in detail.

    Thank you again for sharing this, how this isn't an article is beyond me. This could save me millions of dollars until 2035 (2045 w/ extension).
    Apr 16 06:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Bribes From Billionaires [View instapost]
    Thank you for the response. Yeah not bad for them at all if someone walks away from the three bucks and 201 becomes 200. Thanks again.
    Mar 21 01:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Bribes From Billionaires [View instapost]
    That is exactly where my mind went. Maybe Chris can shed some light.

    The $3M liquid wasn't the concern for me, it was the accreditation on the $65M I was concerned about. :) I am sure GD is more concerned as the time gets closer and the building begins they want their $65M. Chris do you have more understanding on the actual process, any experience or real life examples?

    But as Chris said above, this is never a cause for concern due to the demand. I have done the same with concert and sports tickets, and like you said this is a whole new level. But one deal a year, puts the rule of 72 to shame.

    This is seriously something I am going to look into more, the time factor intrigues me. I think the potential things stumbling across is infinite and I thank Chris to opening my eyes to something I never considered.
    Mar 20 07:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Bribes From Billionaires [View instapost]
    Very good piece and outside of the box thinking that opens the mind to more places to invest...
    Mar 19 11:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife's Tragic Flaw: Understanding Inventory Loading [View article]
    Since most of my posts to Matt get deleted. Any differing view here at SA. I think this quote sums it up from Jeff Dunn.

    "You certainly have short sellers and other people out there banging their drum, but they don’t have what I’d call pure objectivity,” Dunn said. “They are trying to support their own assertions. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of data that supports it. It’s more about throwing rocks.”

    http://bloom.bg/169z83y
    Mar 6 06:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman V. Icahn - Don't Forget Whitman [View article]
    Apparently that is exactly why a 3rd party commented on your comments. Like I said grow up. You made this personal, not me. You were just the lawyer, nothing else. You gave me your resume and a bunch of publication awards to justify yourself. Like giving people participation ribbons or gold stars. Lawyers of the week of November are not impressive. Maybe your mom has it on the mantle, but the rest of the world could care less.

    Then you "lie" and take my opinion out of context. Yep, it is official I believe you are a lawyer for real. Lie for a living, that is what your profession does.
    Feb 15 10:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman V. Icahn - Don't Forget Whitman [View article]
    One more thing I forgot to mention. I am in Kapalua, Hawaii this week. At the Ritz Carlton Amway is having a convention for their "diamonds" whatever that means. Had a lengthy discussion with three of the most successful Amway distributors in the lobby, the conversation of Herbalife came up. Guess what they said, "we have been through this and HLF will make it through this just like we did."

    These are millionaire distributors, with their "poor" underlings at the bottom of the pyramid for training and expos. Fireworks last night, full functions. All the people at the bottom of the pyramid here with Amway sure seem to be pretty happy about how much they are taken advantage of by the top.
    Feb 15 06:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Herbalife's Nutrition Clubs Operating In Violation Of The Law? [View article]
    Thanks for the information on Matt Stewart. RBC Wealth Management lost almost million dollar account, due to my disagreement and manipulation of "facts."

    I am more than willing to "prove" that based on my Dec 2012/Jan 2013 statement, to any editor of Seeking Alpha now that the transfer is completed.

    Sounds to me like the only one "losing" anything this week is Matt's employer, RBC. My representative was not very thrilled when I told him the reason why (incompetent VP), I told him to have more competent Vice Presidents in their organization if they wanted my business. 20 year relationship with RBC ended.

    I don't have any dog in this fight, but I agree the shorts are grasping for straws in the first place. The government doesn't care about the little people or the stock investors. Get that through your head, the FTC is not coming to save anyone. In the last month the only decline in HLF has been outside of it's control. Hi-Fortune, respond to Ackman's claims. Now we are "why is x% in Argentina?" Who cares? It isn't like some moral thing, where you are all trying to help the "poor" HLF distributor. This is about money, and therefore I will take my money from any company that Matt Stewart represents. As I said before, the only "losing" this week was RBC.
    Feb 10 12:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Concrete Reasons To Be Short Herbalife Right Now [View article]
    Thanks for the reply Meta.

    Just seems to me a lot of things going against the shorts here:

    1. Relying on the FTC - never happen. Government is going to save the day here and Ackman knows it.
    2. 13 block trades so far today (10,000 shares or more). 12 are buys, so either the large shorts are covering, or the institutions are betting against you with the drop in the "no news" in Kentucky yesterday and taking a long position further removing more shares from the float.
    3. Fundamentals are good.
    4. Extra "cost" as you illustrated above, with a dividend coming up in February.
    5. Ichan's comments, I took them an entirely different way than the writer of this article. He said he didn't want to reveal his position, as for confidence in the position I felt his primary motivation was to tear up Ackman on a personal level.
    6. Growth is continuing.
    7. Legal fight if found to be illegal for years.

    Against HLF
    1. Perception of MLMs, will effect participation minimally in US.
    2. Media driven decline (as witnessed yesterday during the FTC press conference on the Kentucky MLM).

    I just personally don't see the advantage to paying a premium to go short on a company that has been growing, in business for 32 years, paying a dividend next month and has 950 million funded in a stock purchase program. Lot of landmines to catch the shorts, not as many on the long side but more dramatic (going to $0).

    As was mentioned above there is a lot of risk on either side of this trade. Just seems like the less risk is on the long side to me personally. Only thing that can go wrong is the FTC steps in really. Eventually the media will move from Herbalife and Apple.

    Good luck everyone.
    Jan 29 05:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Concrete Reasons To Be Short Herbalife Right Now [View article]
    I love all these short articles. Great analysis, but the fundamental problem is: Where did you get your shares to short? Seems pretty strange the three brokerage firms I deal with haven't had any shares since the end of 2012. So unless you have been short for months, I highly doubt a brokerage firm is going to let you short your 100 or 200 shares in your 10,000 day trade account.

    So again, for these articles to have any form of validity whatsoever, actually prove you are short. Institutions hold 98% of the shares, all they have to do is call their broker and say "we don't want our shares used in a short against us." Guess what you are done, keep paying a premium. Oh wait, you are shorting shares in your "make believe" account that has nothing to do with market dynamics.
    Jan 29 01:43 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rocky Mountain Is A Chocolate Covered Growth Stock [View article]
    I live in Colorado and have gone to RMCF 50+ times. Due to my location I probably have more insight to the customer and the franchisee perception of things

    1. There used to be a location 3 minutes from my old house. I would get it for my wife on special holiday (stocking stuffer Christmas, Anniversary, etc). It is more of a "premium or specialized product." This is not something most people buy on a regular basis, event or "special" oriented.
    2. Good products, but similar to other chocolate shops.
    3. We probably patronized from my last house 6-10 times a year between my wife and I. Until this article I didn't realize it has been over three years since I last went to a RMCF. This is not the type of retail establishment your are going to go out of your way for, but it is an impulse purchase with good Regional brand recognition.

    I know two different franchisees personal and discussed the business with them approximately five years ago.

    1. The tourist locations fair better.
    2. Product loss is huge on the retail side. Some products shelf life is 1 day. 50% and higher gross product loss, (unsold product that is thrown away) is common, which hurt the high margins. Not everyday, but a seasonality in business.
    3. Coldstone has a horrible reputation toward it's franchisees and competitive ability to survive buying only from them at their "set" pricing. There were a handful of owner's/families that had owned both franchises, and this was worked out to help this group of owners. The combination of the saved Real Estate costs for these owners having both in one location was the driver (as told by the franchisee to me). "Coldstone RMCF" - that was how it was explained to me by an owner of 3 RMCF franchises.
    4. Colorado-centric. I would like to see how many of the total ~300 shops are in specifically in Colorado. I would imagine the percentage is disproportionably high.

    Conclusion

    Been to RMNF many times. I like their product even with "premium" pricing. I don't like it enough to go out of my way to purchase it. I will grab as a "special treat" if we run into one. Personally I have no idea how the brand recoginiton built by the company translates in Japan. I also don't understand why more US/West/National growth isn't investigated. The expansion into Japan seems to be getting away from their competitive advantage of brand awareness. Bottom line chocolate is chocolate, and not better than what you expect from a "premium" product. 100 shops in your city just like them.
    I would NOT invest my capital into the Japan strategy. It doesn't make sense to me understanding how the shops operate.
    Jan 28 02:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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