WC Whiner

Debunking the Bear Case for Energy

Hm, something ate the rest of that post. Seekingalpha should take their VC money and spend a lot of money on a consultant to implement a comments system that is at least as good as the free-beer-free-speech-... blogging software I use, which can handle a less-than symbol without choking. Anyhow, Germany is sub-200mm BTU/cap, which I don't see the US hitting soon given its differences, but something like Belgium's 300mm seems doable, at some price. Cf www.eia.doe.gov/kids/i... -- there is room for demand destruction. That I do not know at what price explains that my bets so far are spread bets, not energy price bets.

I tend to prefer very-long-term plays as well, but sometimes a market gets ahead of itself enough that I can quantify and react. In this case, it has been a combination of the energy market up move with the housing market down move. Something has to give, and I predict it is consumption. The moment the data contradict me, I'll be back overweight fuels.

So far, so good.