WC Whiner

So What If GM Relies On Overseas Markets?

If GM files bankruptcy, the UAW and the bondholders will fight over the corporate carcass. I think neither the union nor management want that, but management wants it less, since that wipes the board clean and top management probably all get fired. The union can fight with bondholders with the company's benefit and retirement obligations, which supersede even the most senior bank debt.

When UAL went into bankruptcy in 1994, the union actually played white knight and saved it from the bondholders. When it declared bankruptcy again a couple years back, it wiped out the ESOP that had saved management before. No union with half a brain and any sense of realpolitik will play white knight for management again, and the UAW is nothing if not cognizant of its power and limitations.

Don't think bankruptcy is Wagoner's trump card -- it's the UAW's.

FD: short GM

crossposted to controlledgreed

With the GM Merger a No Go, What Kerkorian's Next Move?

I think your 1) is wrong. Replace it with greenmail, and you have Kerkorian's actual options. I give him a 50-50 split between greenmail and activism, but I've been wrong before.