WC Whiner

Dow 15,000? (ETFs: IVV, IWV, IYY, SPY, VTI)

In re DJI 15k, that's because 5% and 50% are practically the same, yeah?

I have made any number of embarrassingly wrong market calls, but I find it best to revisit them when wrong and identify whether I made ex-ante errors, or whether once again I simply fell prey to bad luck. Luck swamps skill every time. I might be happy to believe your index call last fall was simply bad luck, but I just can't respect the, "I shall be proven right in the end, just you wait," elision of events.

FD: like the folks at PIMCO, I see the housing slowdown taking down marginal consumption, hence marginal GDP, corporate profits and as soon as the market gets what's happening, the indexes. I am ready for my call to be wrong, but so far, the data are coming in much along that scenario. You won't want to be overweight US equities if I'm right.

Stress Testing Risk Metrics Pays Off: A Case Study Portfolio for the Sophisticated Investor

A couple quick comments for Will.

One, he's got a big metals/oils overweight, of about 10% on top of the ~15% materials/energy weight in index ETFs. That's worked really well for him the last few years, and may well in the future. Still, it's not going to have an inconsequential effect if those holdings pull back.

Two, he's paying out fees where there are cheaper alternatives. IYY charges 20 bps, VTI only 7. EFA charges 35 bps, VPL and VGK charge 18. TRRIX charges 45 bps, while TIP charges 20. EWJ charges 59 bps, and COY despite selling at a discount to NAV charges 200+. Swap out a few of those names and you can save 10-20 bps a year over the entire portfolio and keep the same risk profile.