I work in the field of water resources. Recent investment interests include alternative/sustainable energy and battery technology. I sometimes dabble in speculative stock investments, but most of my investments are in real estate, bonds, and dividend-paying blue chips. I've been burned enough times with speculative stocks that I like to ask hard questions and point out risks and uncertainties that people who promote stocks on these forums tend to gloss over.
I am an individual investor focused on analyzing revenue & margin growth potential over a 5 year time frame. I follow a risk based valuation methodology - identifying worst case, expected, and best case investment returns.
Visit my website www.smart-folios.com to follow the performance a concentrated, aggressively-managed ETF portfolio.
Have been ranked in or near the top 50 of more than 5000 bloggers and close to the top 100 of nearly 9000 all experts by TipRanks.com . https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/crunching-numbers?period=quarterly
Focus is mostly on Sirius XM Holdings and income investing,
30 years (through 2000) experience working for basic manufacturing and high tech industries in both the US and Europe. Company sizes ranged from start-ups to Fortune top 10. Experience as manager and/or grunt in fields of financial analysis, revenue forecasting, business planning, budgeting, pricing analysis, compensation planning, contracts, marketing, product management. Have been investing in stocks more than 40 years, options for 30 years and on and off in real estate for 25 years. BS in engineering from Boston U, MBA from Rutgers.
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I am a full-time trader and investor for my own proprietary accounts only. I have no direct or indirect interest in attracting clients of any kind. My primary investing interests reside in the equity markets of the US, Norway, Canada, Australia, and Singapore, with overweight positions in natural resources and energy-related companies.
After earning an MBA from the Harvard Business School, I held assignments in marketing, and later in line management, at several of the world's largest financial institutions. After the 2008 economic crisis, I also tried to help reform the U.S. lending industry by advancing the cause of covered bonds as an alternative to mortgage-backed securities. Those efforts included co-founding a specialized online news publication.
As you read my postings in Seeking Alpha, please bear in mind:
1) I describe what I am seeing from my own vantage point. My expression of views is not intended as "advice" to anyone. Not SA readers. Not friends. Not family members. I have never told anyone to buy, sell or hold anything in particular.
2) Any thought or opinion I share is solely with the intent to help a reader arrive at his or her own conclusions. My only motivation is to "give back" stock research ideas, in appreciation for what I have learned from so many SA commenters and authors.
3) I always make clear in comments when I have a long position in a stock. If I sell a stock I have commented on because I have developed new doubts about it, I try to make a new comment to that effect somewhere on SA. I am also direct about positions which I hold underwater. I do not take short positions on individual stocks.
Value Digger holds MSc. in Electrical Engineering, speaks four languages and has lived in the U.S. for many years. Also, he is a full-time investor and a freelance writer with one of the highest Followers per Article (F/A) rates in Seeking Alpha. His F/A rate in Seeking Alpha is above 30.
After creating "Nathan's Bulletin" (a subscription-based investment guide for investors who can't afford a financial advisor), Value Digger launched a subscription-based Premium Service in Seeking Alpha entitled "A Fundamental Investor's Stock Club" which includes an unparalleled, actively-managed and high-return Portfolio of unknown and/or underfollowed stocks. Regularly updated and detailed lists in his Premium Posts PROVE these high returns. For reference, when Value Digger was managing money in the early 2000s, his Portfolio's annual ROI consistently exceeded 50%. His Premium Research is based on a comprehensive review of company-specific factors, macro conditions, competitors and the industry trends.
When it comes to his publicly-available picks and his free Seeking Alpha articles, Value Digger is ranked in the TOP-50 with a success rate of over 70%, an average return per recommendation of over 20% and a 5-star rating according to TipRanks.com, which is the highest category quality ranking used to evaluate financial experts. TipRanks.com is a comprehensive investing tool that allows private investors and day traders to see the measured performance of anyone who publicly provides financial advice. TipRanks.com collects data, evaluates and ranks 9,000 financial experts worldwide.
After almost 30 years of investing experience in the international markets (U.S., Canada, Australia, Europe), Value Digger has formulated a deep understanding of valuation analysis and his investment philosophy is firmly grounded in Ben Graham-style value-oriented opportunities that often have an assymetric risk/reward profile. On that front, he has created a unique proprietary database with thousands of publicly-traded companies per sector, which helps him spot the bargains and the bubbles before many investors find them.
The Pendulum blog is an ongoing discussion of portfolio positions, investment ideas and market trends. As an investor I try to use my independence, flexibility and speed to my advantage.
I write three types of articles: (i) stock-specific articles, (ii) analysis of earnings estimates and (iii) overviews of the market that examine different asset classes. I hope you find them interesting and feel free to comment on the articles; I like the feedback. Thanks for reading!
I started thinking about stock prices in terms of a pendulum after reading Howard Marks' investor letters. Marks is the most perceptive investor about the role of investor psychology in the stock market and industry cycles. I always try to incorporate "pendulum thinking" in my analysis, meaning that it is important to think about the intrinsic value of a company as well as how investor psychology is going to drive the stock price to overshoot and undershoot that value.
I am a generalist. I am not an expert in any one sector or asset class. I have found that there is value in listening to generalists as well as experts, but it is important to be able to distinguish between the two. As a generalist, I try to add value by thinking about the relationships between things and comparing various parts of the market. Generalists can be helpful in avoiding tunnel vision and, hopefully, adding some common sense.
I like to establish a long term outlook for a company and then invest using shorter timeframes. I may be bullish on a stock and still sell it if I think it went up too much or if have concerns about the overall market. I don't mind moving to the sidelines and getting back in at a later point and I sometimes prefer to sell before earnings to reduce risk. I may invest in the opposite direction of my long term view if I think the market over-reacted one way or another. I like to hold positions for the long term, but I use stops to cut my losses. There is a difference between a good company and a good stock. Everybody has a different investing style, experience, tax status, risk tolerance, comfort range, etc., so please note that nothing that I write should be used as investment advice.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed here should not be construed as investment advice. This is not tailored to specific investment objectives. Reliance on this information for the purpose of buying the securities to which this information relates may expose a person to significant risk. The information contained in this article is not intended to make any offer, inducement, invitation or commitment to purchase, subscribe to, provide or sell any securities, service or product or to provide any recommendations on which one should rely for financial, securities, investment or other advice or to take any decision. Readers are encouraged to seek individual advice from their personal, financial, legal and other advisers before making any investment or financial decisions or purchasing any financial, securities or investment related service or product.
Information provided, whether charts or any other statements regarding market, real estate or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Nothing in this article should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future performance.
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