SDS (Seductive Dividend Stocks)

SDS (Seductive Dividend Stocks)
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  • These 26 Dividend Aristocrats Won't Let You Sleep Well At Night  [View article]
    P.A.
    Thank you for good article.
    I did reconstruction of full CCC list back to 2008 - results are similar (see http://seekingalpha.co...)
    SDS
    Feb 12, 2016. 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If Switching From A Total Return Strategy To A DGI Strategy Was So Simple, Then Why Isn't Everyone Doing It?  [View article]
    Let make task a bit more difficult and assume that both A & B must sell all 12/31/2017 and restart investment 1/1/2018. Well I doubt that DG portfolio can be assembled in 1 month even by an experienced DGi but let make task even more difficult and give A & B only 1 day to complete portfolio.
    Moreover let allow B to copycat A with delay 1 minute ONLY in this "shopping" day.
    If market goes UP in this day (probability is slightly above 50% for US) prices for A a bit better than for B and A finish with large number of stocks (let say A wiil have 1000 of ABC while B will have 999 of ABC).
    If market goes DOWN in this day (probability is slightly below 50% for US) prices for B a bit better than for A, so initially B wins.
    But the learning curve for DGI include tasks of re-investment, sell, purchase, etc to which A is prepared better than B. So I guess after couple years A wins (due to learning and PRACTICING of DGI before 1/1/2018).
    If we give A & B longer (but finite time) to complete portfolio (e.g. 1 year) but forbid B to copycat A, I guess A makes better portfolio than B again due to previous experience.

    BTW: Diversification with 16 stocks isn't adequate for DGI (http://seekingalpha.co...).

    SDS
    Feb 10, 2016. 08:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Idea: Using The SA Community To Evaluate Qualcomm  [View article]
    Dividend Sleuth,
    Unfortunately EPS is not alone "low accuracy" metric.
    I agree that " If a company cannot be counted on to pay its debts, my hunch is that the dividend is in jeopardy" but it is not the case for most DG companies. Credit agencies indeed worry about debt and might reduce rating if company decide to increase payments to shareholders (e.g. recent S&P action for YUM). Therefore I'd not use credit rating "per se" as the prime selection input for div. stocks.
    SDS
    Feb 10, 2016. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Idea: Using The SA Community To Evaluate Qualcomm  [View article]
    Dividend Sleuth,

    Thank you for good article.
    You already did a lot of work but let me point how to make your effort even more difficult. You rely on different financial sources (and this is good IMO) but you did not compare their historical numbers. I didn't do it for QCOM recently but often historical numbers for the same metric are different in various sources for the same company for the same time point. IMO investor needs to compare numbers and then to select correct one (shortcut is to select the number which is the same in 75% of sources or worse one) in DD process.

    "I first check the Standard & Poor's corporate credit rating." - Well how credit rating (assuming investment grade) which describes ability to pay debts is related with stock for DG portfolio?

    SDS
    Feb 9, 2016. 12:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • New-Look Periodic Table Of Dividend Champions - Dividend Safety Edition  [View article]
    David/richjoy403,

    "Dividends in Danger" was very useful. I agree that lot of work is needed. I hope that there is no copyright or trademark for "Dividends in Danger" and any SA author can write article with title like "Dividends in Danger: ABC company". Having the words "Dividends in Danger" in the beginning of article title allows easily find it and create alerts. I think Dividend Investing Ideas is SA place for such articles.
    SDS
    Feb 9, 2016. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New-Look Periodic Table Of Dividend Champions - Dividend Safety Edition  [View article]
    Thank you, David, for good article. I didn't know about Safety Net Pro system and developing /very slowly 8-(/ my one for dividends sustainability. Opposite to Marc I started from financial companies (esp. banks) because good statistics for dividend cuts (http://seekingalpha.co...) and it is quite predictable but doesn't work (and not intend to) for industrial firms.
    Some Safety Net Pro assessments look strange, so IMO future development of this and other dividend cuts prediction models is necessary.
    SDS
    Feb 8, 2016. 07:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Financial Asset Management Stocks For Long-Term Income? Think Again!  [View article]
    Bruce
    Thank you for excellent article. WDR and LAZ poped up on the top of my watch list due to price declines but I decoded to wait. On another hand I think some FAM companies like BLK might gain from new rules.
    SDS
    Feb 8, 2016. 12:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider This Strategy To Reduce Stock Market Anxiety  [View article]
    Psycho Analyst,

    I did CCC list reconstruction from 1/1/2008 (see http://seekingalpha.co...) and indeed many companies reduced dividends but even more increased.
    There are ~ 700 firms in CCC list now and ~ 5000 firms are traded in US stock markets beyond this list. I guess that 10+% of companies from CCC list will continue to increase dividends in next 25 years. I doubt that even 5% of non-CCC firms will increase dividends in next 25 years. So I think it is easy to find future DG companies in CCC list than in the rest of stocks market.
    SDS
    Feb 7, 2016. 02:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider This Strategy To Reduce Stock Market Anxiety  [View article]
    Chuck
    Thank you for good article I guess you wrote under influence of another recent one.
    " I would certainly acknowledge that dividend income is an important contributor to total return, but not necessarily dominant, even over periods of 20 years."
    I'm not sure about last 20 years but compare last 50 years of S&P500 with and without div. reinvested on any WWW site. Note that they almost always use semi-log plot to make curves closer, but if you replace log for linear price scale you can see that re-invested curve is going to sky while price only curve is flying near the ground.
    Anyway I agree with "The key is to ignore the volatility of stock prices and the anxiety it brings, and focus your attention instead on the consistency and predictability of your growing dividends. "
    SDS
    Feb 6, 2016. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider This Strategy To Reduce Stock Market Anxiety  [View article]
    Psycho Analyst asked 'where do I find the list of stocks that are going to raise their dividends every year for the NEXT 25 years?"
    In David Fish CCC list (full version with 3+ years of DG history). Note that NOT all stocks listed there will "raise their dividends every year for the NEXT 25 years" but perhaps 10+%will do it.
    I'd not tell you which are in this 10+%
    SDS
    Feb 6, 2016. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Do You Deal With Impact Of Currency Now?  [View article]
    The Div Guy

    Decision should include such factors as duration of your holdings, currency of dividends (I assume that you re-invest), % of Canadian stocks in your portfolio, etc....., your attitude to other continents, etc...

    SDS
    Feb 5, 2016. 07:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Recession-Ready REIT Portfolio  [View article]
    Brad,
    Thank you for good article. I agree that it is very important to DIVERSIFY but it seems that you suggest to do it ONLY with US REITs while there are many good REITs outside USA. The only obstacles are information (usually not so good) and taxes (I guess /don't know/ more copmplicated).
    It would be nice to see article about foreign REITs and related taxes.
    SDS
    Feb 5, 2016. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends: A Key Component Of Total Return  [View article]
    varan
    I knew that I overstressed cherry picking but there is a bondary between selection and cherry picking? I guess you know that SPY (actually S&P500) is actively managed list of stocks.
    SDS
    Feb 5, 2016. 02:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends: A Key Component Of Total Return  [View article]
    Thanks Big Thunder. I don't have time to learn FAST Graphs 8-(.
    SDS
    Feb 5, 2016. 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends: A Key Component Of Total Return  [View article]
    Michael Boyd,

    DGI is cherry picking, S&P500 is also cherry picking, I guess 99.99% if indexes are also cherry picking because rely on some number or set of rules (e.g. price must be above 1$ or market cap must be above 100M$ or P/E must be below 100 or company must be located in Nigeria).

    SDS
    Feb 3, 2016. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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