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SDS (Seductive Dividend Stocks)

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  • Retirement Strategy: Is Boring Becoming Bubbly? [View article]
    Any DGi should know that wideDG stocks portfolio suppose to underperform in strong up market and overperform in down market, so no surprises here.
    On another hand DGI is long-term strategy, so its analysis based on 1 week result is show rather that the person who offer such analysis does not understand DGI or just doing self-advertising. Sorry to be non-polite but "Plato is my friend but truth is a better"
    SDS
    Apr 11 10:42 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Is Total Return A Useful Metric? [View article]
    "Value investing, by its nature, is designed to reduce risk."
    Well Fama-French 1992 model says that value is a risk factor > 0 and therefore return from value investing is higher. Of course they think inside MPT box with unproven (as far as I know) presumption that "you need to take more risk in order to receive a greater return".
    SDS
    Apr 11 01:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Is Total Return A Useful Metric? [View article]
    LarryMelman
    Just a fact: With ~ 2% error TR=Yield+DGR for 100+ years of US stock market /http://bit.ly/xFpiPl. You would not argue with a fact, aren't you?

    Some of my DG stock are not qualify for CCC list (see e.g. http://bit.ly/10kl7Pa), some DGis will probably never buy these stocks. DGI box doesn't have absolute walls.

    SDS
    Apr 11 01:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Is Total Return A Useful Metric? [View article]
    Dave,
    Just calculate ROIC after 35 years of DGI with YoC=3% and DGR=7%. If a DGi can be such consistent (s)he will laugh on average 10% of annual TR....
    SDS
    Apr 11 01:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Is Total Return A Useful Metric? [View article]
    David Fish,
    I checked their WWW site - no info about research (at least for non-subscribes). Although NDR result is encouraging, I don't know how it exactly applicable to DGI without methodology disclosure. Again will average or even any DGi buy stock for DG portfolio if company just initiated dividends? I guess no. Will single dividend increase (e.g. after 5 years of flat dividend) trigger DGi purchase order? I guess no.
    How NDR handle special dividends? How often they rebalance? Etc, etc, etc...
    SDS
    Apr 11 01:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Is Total Return A Useful Metric? [View article]
    DVK,
    Please see my reply to DF I just made.
    SDS
    Apr 10 08:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Is Total Return A Useful Metric? [View article]
    David Fish,
    I don't know Ned Davis Research /NDR/ methodology (cannot find their ORIGINAL report) but couple concerns about their top performer group /dividend initiators and growers/:
    a) after dividend initiation company can keep flat dividends for long time (e.g. 20 years) - will NDR exclude such company and when?
    b) How does NDR define DG? Will NDR include a firm which dividends went up and down few times and again up in last/this year in this year data-point?
    SDS
    Apr 10 08:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Is Total Return A Useful Metric? [View article]
    DVK
    As far as I know Ned Davis research mixes DG and div. initiators, so their famous graph is not very conclusive IMO.
    SDS
    Apr 10 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Is Total Return A Useful Metric? [View article]
    David Fish wrote 'ndex funds are the C's of the financial world."
    I guess B is more correct if we compare an index fund performance to similar active funds.
    SDS
    Apr 10 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Is Total Return A Useful Metric? [View article]
    David
    Thank you for good article.
    I also started as a value investor at the end of XX century naively assumed that I can find undervalued companies, wait until market understand their value and sell the stock at higher price. You probably guess who was the fool in this game 8-). If still not, let me describe one of my first purchases. Unfortunately I forgot the company name but remember that their business model was to buy used cars at East Coast of USA, ship the cars to West Africa and sell these cars for profit there. Simple and easy to understand business, headquarters in prestigious New York City location, annual reports audited, interview that they need to lease more ships to grow business, bla, bla, bla. All their numbers were perfect from point of view of a value investor, so I bough. In few months CEO took all cash from company safe box and disappeared. Stock was halted, I lost 100%.
    Few other holdings led to mixed results, so after few years I switched to index funds. I do not consider that I can uncover accounting tricks, I do not consider that I’m smarter than market (full of institutions with more powerful information analyses than I can even dream to have), I do not want to pay tithe (http://bit.ly/ZABWCl), I do not expect that US stock market will significantly underperform others after fees in long run, so S&P500 was my choice. Well, I disliked (and still not very happy) with principles of it construction (I didn’t know then about fundamental indexing and some other good ideas) but history shows that it is not so bad. The only serious discomfort I had is that my need in cash might be (and probably will be) not synchronize with US market mood.
    I found DGI in 2006 and it was a-ha! moment for me. I asked myself a simple question – why should I expect US market to rise due to 2 ingredients (e.g. increasing earnings) – better fundamentals and at least the same attitude of public to stocks (e.g. the same P/E ratio)? IMO demography does not support the second ingredient and global competition might affect the first ingredient. So, do I expect to find even more foolish person then myself? I guess not 8-).
    In the result I’m now DG/HY investor who do not trust any CFO until company can show that they distribute real money to owners. (I keep S&P500 fund in my 401K because this is the only good choice there) Being a natural contrarian I also buy any dividend stock than the firm price/fundamentals is significantly below historical average (i.e. kind of deep value) but I know that dividends provide some protection from “West Africa used car dealers” if I make mistake. My 3 major motto for investing came from street wise folks:
    “In God We Trust, All Others Pay Cash”
    “Paper wealth is not money”
    “Past performance does not guarantee future results”
    They dictate to ignore any hope for capital gain (I’m not refusing to have it as part of total return but I do not count on it), to monitor my portfolio and to be flexible.

    SDS
    Apr 10 12:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco Dividend Safety Analysis: Low Debt Provides Some Breathing Room [View article]
    Ensco significantly increased dividends in Dec 2013 and their payout ratio ~ 50% (http://bit.ly/1g9VlRN), so I doubt they will cut in near future.
    SDS
    Apr 10 01:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How One Retiree Is Muddling Through Dividend Investing: Part IX - My Dividend Investment Business Plan [View article]
    Ha! I own AZN and use their WWW page I cited in my comment as info source but didn't check it in comment, they indeed reduced dividends on 5 cents/share. Because AZN is ~ 1% of my portfolio I can sustain such drop.
    SDS
    Apr 10 12:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Market Versus Net Corporate Dividends [View article]
    Pat
    What is Y axis in charts 1-3? Why X is the same for charts 1 & 2?
    Repurchases - see http://bit.ly/XRf3gk
    SDS
    Apr 9 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How One Retiree Is Muddling Through Dividend Investing: Part IX - My Dividend Investment Business Plan [View article]
    Thanks.
    As you know beta is defined via price movements.
    SDS
    Apr 9 03:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How One Retiree Is Muddling Through Dividend Investing: Part IX - My Dividend Investment Business Plan [View article]
    Martin,
    Thank you for good article. Let me challenge some points:

    Stock price below 10$ or any number just reflects 2 aspects - Mr. Maret mood (ignore) and how many stocks firm issued related to their fundamentals. Would you sell let say KO if firm makes 10:1 split and their stock price will be ~4$ just because it's price below 10$?

    “I don't pay too much attention to the stock's price” “beta is .. within the range of 0.5-0.7 that I'd like to maintain.”
    Hmmm… do you see a contradiction in these?

    “I haven't been able to bring myself to a strict definition of single position sizes.”
    Well me too. I invest quasi-equal capital in each firm – see http://bit.ly/x96XEi but here is the question:
    Should I sell if price, earnings and dividends of one position grow 10X faster than average and position becomes e.g. 50% of portfolio? I don’t know but at 50% I’d not probably feel comfortable with this winner but why to trim?

    “I will stick with about 5% of the portfolio value in cash”
    There is time to collect stones and time to distribute them (not exact quote). Why to stick with exact number. I went from 100% cash in Jan 2009 to zero investment cash in Jan 2012 and did very few purchases in 2013 keeping cash for future.

    BTW, I do not see dividend reduction for AZN (http://bit.ly/NIj52a) - How do you got it?

    SDS
    Apr 9 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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