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  • Big Markets, Over Confidence And The Macro Delusion! [View article]
    Thanks for great article. Hand-wave arguments can impress only pundits, real investors should follow "show me money" principle. I realize it via dividend paying stocks.
    SDS
    Aug 28, 2015. 12:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Learning From The Masters: Market Meltdown Edition [View article]
    I was lucky last Monday:
    a) A friend from China discussed their stock market crash last Sunday;
    b) I was able to login in my account at 6:29am (well is it advantage or disadvantage to live in Silicon Valley and awake so early to see market? Anyway I’m an early bird…) after I saw in WSJ.com that all other continents are in red.

    I had no clue what US market will do but expect possible FED action in September I didn’t see a big bear force around at least for USA. Possible inflation (too much money were printed in last few years) is a bull force for stocks. My conclusion was – buy (although I thought that Monday might be the beginning of relatively long /~ 1 month/ downturn) So I started to post limit buy orders within -15% -25% from previous close for stocks I like (to increase my position or open new ones). All my orders are good till cancel. I did it manually so some orders were executed at the time I created new ones and some stocks were halted. In result it was mess with money management I wasn’t prepared to handle.
    I finished Monday with only 51 cent in cash and few dream positions – the most unique is RMSYF (international hospital chain with DG streak for ~20 years and big growth potential which is unknown for many SA folks).

    BTW I agree with B&H2012 that “99.9% of the time the best thing to do as a stock market investor is to do nothing.” But I hope Monday was in 0.1% category.

    SDS
    Aug 27, 2015. 05:39 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Stocks Stand Out If You Combine Smart Beta With Dividend Growth Investing? Here Are 15 Choices [View article]
    I compared QUAL holdings in Jan and Aug 2015. The differences are:

    WERE in Jan not in Aug:
    IBM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CO
    CL COLGATE-PALMOLIVE
    AGN ALLERGAN INC
    KMB KIMBERLY CLARK CORP
    KRFT KRAFT FOODS GROUP INC
    MHFI MCGRAW HILL FINANCIAL INC
    VIAB VIACOM INC CLASS B
    K KELLOGG
    STX SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY PLC
    ISRG INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC
    BCR C R BARD INC
    CF CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC
    MAT MATTEL INC
    VRSK VERISK ANALYTICS INC CLASS A
    EMN EASTMAN CHEMICAL
    PETM PETSMART INC
    CCE COCA-COLA ENTERPRISES INC
    DAL DELTA AIR LINES INC
    FDO FAMILY DOLLAR STORES INC
    ALB ALBEMARLE CORP.
    GRMN GARMIN LTD
    FOSL FOSSIL GROUP INC
    CLB CORE LABORATORIES NV

    ARE now in ETF were not in Jan:
    ALXN ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS INC
    EA ELECTRONIC ARTS INC
    CDK CDK GLOBAL INC
    IT GARTNER INC.
    GT GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER
    UTHR UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORP.
    JLL JONES LANG LASALLE INC.
    WBC WABCO HOLDINGS INC.
    PEP PEPSICO INC
    INTC INTEL CORPORATION CORP
    COST COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP
    TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
    MON MONSANTO
    GD GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP
    EMR EMERSON ELECTRIC
    NOC NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP
    PSA PUBLIC STORAGE REIT
    TEL TE CONNECTIVITY LTD
    OMC OMNICOM GROUP INC
    MJN MEAD JOHNSON NUTRITION
    KLAC KLA TENCOR CORP
    WAB WABTEC CORP
    WLK WESTLAKE CHEMICAL CORP


    Some stocks from Jan only and Aug only QUAL lists are in my portfolio before 2015. I have no clue why they traded but I guess to have an explanation for fees.

    SDS
    Aug 27, 2015. 02:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Stocks Stand Out If You Combine Smart Beta With Dividend Growth Investing? Here Are 15 Choices [View article]
    Dave,
    Yes "many people really like these kinds of articles" which are based on comparison of 2 or more sets. I made MS-Excel file which indicate common stocks in different ETFs or between CCC list and a fund and just proposed to share it.
    SDS
    Aug 25, 2015. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Stocks Stand Out If You Combine Smart Beta With Dividend Growth Investing? Here Are 15 Choices [View article]
    David (DVK)
    I guess you limit David Fish's CCC list to Y>2.7% and DGR_5>4% to your purchase limits and reduce the comparison work. The later /comparison of portfolios/ can be done in seconds with MS-Excel file I can email you if you're interested.

    OUSA is new for me. Their holdings are available at http://bit.ly/1UaMVND It seems worth to analyze index behind this ETF.

    SDS
    Aug 25, 2015. 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New System For Picking Stocks To Buy For DIY DGI Portfolios [View article]
    What Works on Wall Street: A Guide to the Best-Performing Investment Strategies of All Time / James P. O'Shaughnessy
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A New System For Picking Stocks To Buy For DIY DGI Portfolios [View article]
    Dennis
    I don't want to discourage you but I have to say:
    There are tons of scoring systems in stock investing. Probably 99% of them are not back tested. It seems that yours is belong to this majority.
    SDS
    Aug 23, 2015. 01:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Your Smart Beta Here! Dividend Growth Stocks As 'Strategic Beta' Investments [View article]
    Placebo Investment Advice

    "This is a time-consuming way to save such a small amount of money on fees."
    I 200% for mutual funds/etfs for any investor with less than 50K$ (see http://seekingalpha.co...). IMO learning about stocks is worth of time if investor expect to have more than 200K$ at some point. See http://seekingalpha.co... - it is not very
    "time-consuming"

    "Discount brokers and financial media (including bloggers) have done a good job of selling the stock hobby to the public. "
    Yes, the same about mutual funds/etfs or gold or antics....

    SDS
    Aug 22, 2015. 07:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Your Smart Beta Here! Dividend Growth Stocks As 'Strategic Beta' Investments [View article]
    Comments on comments:

    DVK "I worked on this article off-and-on for about 2 months..."
    IMO this is about correct time to wrk on good article. Some SA contributors produce 100X more but quality is 1000X less.

    grisly_atoms "Perhaps the proposition of obtaining research grants or even job opportunities from the finance and investing sector of the economy is a subconscious driver, pushing researchers to try to prove the superiority of funds over individual stock picking. In this way they align academia with the hand that feeds it.:
    Yep... "Whose Bread I Eat His Song I Sing"

    Ian Bezek et.al.
    Mr. Swedroe backs up his writings with solid academic conclusion from proper datasets and usually (but not always) correct statistics. Most of SA folks do not have access to such databases AND do not have good knowledge of statistics.
    Claims of DGI superiority are not proven yet from Larry's perspective (I hope because academics didn't research this factor). I'd not surprice if DGI are within +/- couple % of S&P500 in total return (note that I use both + and -). But parts of return of DGI index (dividends + div. growth + price change) are weightrd differently from parts of return of SP500 (and most other indexes), so each investment style fits particular goals. Mr. Swedroe probably misunderstands that DGI is not HY and is not pure value play, and that DG after inflation is more attractive for some investors than cap. gains (so "homemade dividend" doesn't work always). On another hand Mr. Swedroe participates in multi-level marketing (well with a few levels only) and so defends only tricks /or game rules/ approved n the top level. DG isn't approved yet....

    Ckent323
    " I have done a fair amount of analytical modeling of the performance of ..."
    Few SA folks are going to do modeling of dividends cuts. Shut me SA email if you're interested.

    Placebo Investment Advice
    DGI is mostly B&H investment, so it is hard to charge feed hot it. Also DGI is not compatible with open funds, so expect uderperformance of fund/etf to compare with benchmark.
    " VIG contains 180+ stocks. How many retail investors could create and maintain that many stocks for comparable fees? "
    Yep DGi should have ~ 100 DG stocks (see my SA blog), it is not difficult to maintain (see Chowder and my SA blogs), and a DGi pays mostly only enterence fee (whe buy) but no annual fees, while ETF charge you all time.

    SDS
    Aug 22, 2015. 12:10 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Your Smart Beta Here! Dividend Growth Stocks As 'Strategic Beta' Investments [View article]
    David,
    Thank you for good article. Some notes:
    IMO smart beta is pure marketing. Whole approach (alpha + beta) is flawed. Beta depends on benchmark and there is no law (natural or legal) which dictate benchmark. All jazz with MPT is a game with rules upon which players agreed. It is not a science. (BTW I hope http://seekingalpha.com will keep its name/www site and folks would not create competitive one smartbeta.com)
    3 or 4 factor models are ad-hoc engineering like approach to fix academic description of market i.e. specify some rules of the game. 5 or 6 factor model fits ANY curve as any user of MS-Excel can check. Ad-hoc description of Warren Buffet (or any other good investor) doesn't contribute much.
    "I don't understand the need to denigrate stock picking." - to keep game academics and pundits know how to play. The biggest mistake of many small investors is acceptance the game and its rules IMO. I prefer to paly different game (income oriented dividend investment with total return as not even secondary factor).

    BTW, Fundamental index by Robert Arnott (~ 2003) included dividends as weighting factor, so Aseness (very good researcher BTW) wasn't first who pointed that "dividends might be a positive factor to explain portfolio outperformance." Probably role of DG was know at least in 1956 but it didn't fit rules of MPT game and was neglected.

    SDS
    Aug 22, 2015. 12:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Dividend Growth Investing (DGI) A Fad? [View article]
    Folks,
    Unfortunately, I'm too busy now to read all comments but I'd like to propose the following test.
    It is well know that one of the most popular indexes S&P500 beats many professional investors. There is a committee behind this index, so S&P500 structure changes with time because the committee includes/exclude some companies. It seems interesting to compare dividend change ratio (DCR) for let's say 5 and 2 years before a company included in S&P500 with DCR for 5 and 2 years before company excluded from the index. I guess "inclusions" have large average DCR than "exclusions" esp. ones whose market cap reduced before S&P removed them from the index (there are other reasons for exclusion e.g. merger with another company, going private). I'd not surprise that "exclusions" have negative DCR while "inclusions" have positive DCR. I guess one of hidden aspect of S&P500 over-performance is unintentional selection of DG companies. If study (let say for last 20-30 years of S&P500 history) confirms this we obtain another evidence that DGI isn't fad.

    SDS
    Aug 16, 2015. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Dividend Grow? [View article]
    Rudester

    The reinvesting a fraction of the dividends provides safety for retired DGis.
    It is quite simple to manage big DG portfolio - see e.g. http://seekingalpha.co...

    SDS
    Aug 13, 2015. 05:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Dividend Grow? [View article]
    A bit offtopic

    It is well know that one of the most popular indexes S&P500 change with time - they include/exclude some companies. It seems interesting to compare dividend change ratio (DCR) for let's say 5 and 2 years before a company included in S&P500 with DCR for 5 and 2 years before company excluded from the index. I guess "inclusions" have large average DCR than "exclusions" esp. ones whose market cap reduced before S&P removed them from the index. I'd not surprise that "exclusions" have negative DCR while "inclusions" have positive DCR.
    Unfortunately I don't have time for such study, so I hope somebody will do it. Also I have no doubt that S&P does not factor DCR for their decisions on index.

    SDS
    Aug 13, 2015. 01:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will The Dividend Grow? [View article]
    Number of stocks in portfolio depends on the portfolio goals. For DGI this number is about 100 - see http://seekingalpha.co... for explanation of this number.

    SDS
    Aug 13, 2015. 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pareto Principle In Dividend Investing [View article]
    Dividend Growth Investor,
    Thank you for good article. In reality less than 10% of stocks outperform market (on total return basis in long term) as few scholar studies in USA have shown. Some DG stocks are in this winning team and hopefully DGI increases chances to have winner above 10%.
    SDS
    Aug 11, 2015. 08:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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