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SDS (Seductive Dividend Stocks)

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  • Buffett Calls Upon Phil Fisher To Explain Sound Dividend Policies [View article]
    Tim,
    Thanks for good article.
    Unknown taxes caused special 2012 dividends. IMO it is OK if company reduce regular div after big special. See recent CATO div announcement.
    Many DGi considered that only DGR>0 marks consistent dividend policy. A firm consistent dividend policy can be to pay 50% of annual earnings. The problem IMO is not overpay for consistency.
    SDS
    Mar 6 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why REIT Dividends Are Not A Mirage [View article]
    One more argument:
    Ordinary US companies dividends are object of double taxation
    REITs dividends are object of single taxation.
    Sorry Uncle Sam, you made the mistake 8-).....
    Mar 6 01:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Strategies - Buy Low, Sell High [View instapost]
    Chowder,
    Thank you for good article.

    "Buy Low, Sell High" versus "buy high and sell higher" - is pure semantics IMO. Both statements for long investor (i.e. not short) say that action 1 occurs at lower price than action 2. Hence I'd not agree that both are "nonsensical cliches" - I think any is one of the first rules investor must understand and use (too me "Buy Low, Sell High" is easy to understand and memorize). BTW another one of the first rules is SEC enforced cliche "Previous results do not guarantee" even that they were correct 8-) /look how often companies restate earnings/.

    Nobody know direction of stock price at the moment of action 1 and statistics is not perfect helper in stock market.
    IMO as long as you buy and you sell ONLY when you want (regardless of your ego or greed, opinions market pundits, dividend cuts, noisely news and rumors, etc...).
    The sell action must satisfied 2 mutually exclusive conditions:
    a) you recognized the mistake
    OR
    b) you satisfied with the gain (for a case for this see http://bit.ly/wUM47n)
    except if you urgently need cash for unpredictable situation like medical surgery not covered by insurance.

    So. the difference between good and bad investor is in
    a) probability of a mistake he/she makes at buy (IMO most retail investors have ~ 50% during each action, so should not trade often)
    AND
    b) "concentration of iron" in inventor nerves.
    IMO wide diversification helps decrease "concentration of iron" to healthy level (e.g. I bought BP before disaster, and still hold it, I hold PBI due to their promising R&D, I hold NOK - this company re-invented themselves few times in XX century all because each stock is ~ 1% of my portfolio).

    Many companies define progressive dividend policy with 5-7 years time horizon and smooth earnings. On another hand it is well known that earnings beyond 2 years are unpredictable. IMO retail long-term DGis have advantages not to look on numbers which often Wall Street understand better and try to predict near feature but just be calm and ignore fluctuations.

    I agree and bought sometimes near 52 weeks high but I prefer to buy near 5 years low (again diversification and consumption of iron from apples /do not mix nice fruits with dividend-unfriendly company/ 8-) allow me sleep well if stock drops another 50% after I bought).

    HFT and institutional traders (responsible for ~ 80% of volume) hide their intentions buy small lots (I read the scholar paper that states decrease of average lot from few thousands shares to less than 300 shares now). So, old tape techniques probably do not work anymore. On another hand, TOTAL non-zero period (like couple weeks) volume vs. average volume might be informative but non being a technician this is just my unproved hypothesis. Also I think that most of technician tricks can be (and indeed were) programmed in computer trading and retail investor cannot compete in this field with proffi.

    “Every ... single ... one of them!” – I think you ignore long-term investors. 52-week low or high might have opposite mean for them to compare with short-term investors.

    “Their spouse, for the time being, is glad they married a financial genius.” – so should investor have 2 spouses – one for long positions and another for short positions 8-)?

    SDS
    Mar 6 11:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Team Alpha Retirement Portfolio: Dividend Investing Vs. Annuity Purchasing [View article]
    Excellent annuities analyses, thank you!
    Mar 6 01:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Stocks From The Land Of The Rising Sun [View article]
    Does anybody received dividends on ADR of mentioned Japanese stocks in 2012?
    SDS
    Mar 6 01:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Maximizing Dividend Reinvestment [View article]
    DRIP is attractive because it is free (sometime even more than free due to discounts) but it not so good for diversification and value seekers. Just my 2 cents...
    SDS
    Mar 5 09:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Compound Dividend Reinvesting Plus Diversification Equals Secure Retirement [View article]
    Just my personal opinions:
    1. Hopefully life will longer for young generation (20-35 y.o.) of DGis due to progress in medicine and hopefully less stress from wrong investment decisions, so initial yield and chowder rule are less important for them. Also do not expect DGR >8-10% in long run (see http://seekingalpha.co... for 100+ years of DGR history).
    2. Financial pundits and scholars suggest diversification between 20 and 700 stocks based on different models and assumptions (or whole market in MPT). Mostly they operate with price volatility or value-at-risk ideas. For a stock investor the worst case then firm suddenly close doors and loss is 100%.
    It happens - I had stocks /don't remember symbol/ of the company /don't remember name/ with perfect financial data that pretended "to ship used cars from US to Africa and sell them there" > In one "good" day CEO took all cash and dissapered..... I and other naive souls lost 100% of investment.
    IMO 30-40 is a bit too small and a DGi should have 100+ stocks.

    SDS
    Mar 5 08:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Start Investing Now For Retirement Wealth [View article]
    Is gun in the hands of US government? How many generations in US already live on handouts without a will to live different way? Why I as a taxpayer must support these lazy folks?
    SDS
    Mar 4 05:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Start Investing Now For Retirement Wealth [View article]
    Cash Cows, that is almost real story. I faced quite similar when I lived in a communist country.
    SDS
    Mar 4 05:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Start Investing Now For Retirement Wealth [View article]
    IMO this is a good start but based on your bio you'll see at least one bubble and big depression and hopefully DGI helps you to prepare for them mentally.
    SDS
    Mar 4 09:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Can These High-Yielding Stocks Support Their Dividends? [View article]
    Rupert,
    Thank you for the good article. Because earnings is a kind science fiction for CFOs (they suppose to write realistic stories in other parts of 10-K), cash flow vs dividend should be IMO a part of DD for any dividend investor. The problem of course that strong trailing cash flow cannot guarantee future dividends. For example, PBI should face significant expenses in their afford to re-invent the company. LO might loose significant part of their business if mentol will be forbidden in US cigarets (as already in many European countries). Etc....
    SDS
    Mar 4 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Model Portfolios Outperform The S&P 500 [View article]
    Jeff,
    Thank you for the update. Although I doubt that 3 months can proof anything, it nice to hear that S&P was outperformed.
    SDS
    Mar 2 06:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Open Letter To ETF Industry: Create A Better Dividend Growth Product [View article]
    Just FYI: Canadian company try to run DGI fund but IMO without success - http://bit.ly/ZUVXHz
    SDS
    Mar 2 10:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio: Selling Guidelines And General Rules [View article]
    Dave,
    I read quite fast and sometimes miss nuances.

    IMO DGR=9% for 70 years is not realistic - see 100+ years history in http://seekingalpha.co...
    Of course compounding is main DGI weapon, esp. if you have 70 years ahead as the author (see his bio)..

    "The author was also clear in his support of the Chowder rule "
    It is a good rule but IMO the young author can buy stocks with Y=1% and reasonable DGR.

    "2. Selling stocks that eliminate the dividend, reduce the dividend, or do not increase their dividend is a pretty standard metric for DG investors."
    Yes and I challenge it. See papers that show huge profit from owing stocks that reduced dividends.

    "My yield on cost ... is irrelevant."
    It depends.... If company is solid - where do you find Y=20% with small risk?

    SDS
    Mar 1 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Growth Portfolio: Selling Guidelines And General Rules [View article]
    Oh boy, you are too naive.....
    1) "Assuming that a certain company
    Pays a 4% dividend
    Has dividend growth of 9% yearly"
    Only 1 company from CCC list was able to sustain DGR=8% (see R.A.S. data)
    Dreams, dreams, dreams....

    2)" Selling Guidelines: Decrease/Elimination/F... Of Dividend"
    a)Will you sell if your YoC=20% and company freeze dividends because of economy downturn (like in 2008-12)?
    b) It is not always smart to sell stock if firm cut dividends (see http://seekingalpha.co...)

    3)" Selling Guidelines: Always Diversify And Be Well Represented in All Sectors"
    What is about geography?
    "Every position will typically represent 3% of my portfolio"
    IMO portfolio of DGI should be more than ~ 33 positions.

    Anyway good luck Ong Kang Wei!
    SDS
    Mar 1 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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