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  • How Are WisdomTree's Dividend ETFs Doing? [View article]
    IMO 2 new ETFs are pure junk. I checked WisdomTree U.S. Dividend Growth Index - it includes a lot of companies which cannot be qualified as DG by any criteria (some just pay dividends only once in their history). I doubt that DGI and ETFs/MFs are compatible at all.
    SDS
    Aug 16, 2013. 08:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Need To Be A Dividend Growth Investor: DGI Vs. Growth For The Long Haul [View article]
    Dave,
    Don't tell me that your dream vacation is to spend 3 weeks in front of computer reading SA 8-).
    SDS
    Aug 15, 2013. 10:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Need To Be A Dividend Growth Investor: DGI Vs. Growth For The Long Haul [View article]
    David,

    Thank you for good article. Your input numbers seem me quite reasonable although life is not as smooth as excel table.

    One more example in DGI favor: We know that DGI provide quite stable (and hopefully increasing) cash flow, we also know that bankers are usually greedy but they are not stupid. I asked myself today a simple question “why banker void checking account fees if you have direct deposit?” The answer is simple – they like predictable cash flow they can rely on. Not being a banker and not being a greedy person I also like cash flow from DGI I can rely on in future.

    I started to read/comment on comments this morning – it seems that you have to be retired to read all good comments , so I gave up for now. It would be nice if an article author summarize comments to the article let say in 1 week after publication if there are more than N comments. Just a dream….

    SDS
    Aug 15, 2013. 07:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Need To Be A Dividend Growth Investor: DGI Vs. Growth For The Long Haul [View article]
    Garthilk,
    I came to US older than you are now with only 20$ in my pocket but with good education. Now I can retire next year at age 55 if I want thanks to my super-frugal wife (select the right one if you still have choice).
    Try to increase your income - progress at work, don't save on food & nutrition, analyze why utilities cost you 8K (may be I do not pay for heat in California?), invest 401K/IRA - i.e. save on taxes, and remember that DGI compounds your money, so in 20-30 years you'll catch up a few years your missed.
    SDS
    Aug 15, 2013. 02:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Need To Be A Dividend Growth Investor: DGI Vs. Growth For The Long Haul [View article]
    as10675

    Your record "Time to grow from $21K to $1M was 7 years in Brokerage account." seems too good. How much cash did you invest during this 7 years?

    SDS
    Aug 15, 2013. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Basic Forms Of Risk [View instapost]
    Thank you, chowder! WSJ paper is indeed quite shallow but William Bernstein wrote good books, so let's wait his book on deep risk to see if there is beef in the story.
    SDS
    Aug 14, 2013. 07:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Basic Forms Of Risk [View instapost]
    Chump
    Thanks for the link. It seems that they play semantics and "look in rear mirror".
    SDS
    Aug 14, 2013. 02:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ben Graham Did Not Give Up On Value Investing In Theory [View article]
    David,
    Thank you for good article. I think field on non-efficient market shrinks even more from 1976 when the interview was conducted. IMO individual investors still can play nano-caps but liquidity risk is high there.
    SDS
    Aug 14, 2013. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Default: Local Government Debt In The United States And China [View article]
    William,
    Thank you for good article. Unfortunately politicians are real enemies of economy regardless of political system. Citizens cannot do anything to shield their real interest in communist countries and to my surprise often vote for greedy politicians' proposition in capitalist country (at least in California) because politicians are good in manipulation of public opinion. Are there boundaries for human stupidity?
    SDS
    Aug 14, 2013. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Basic Forms Of Risk [View instapost]
    Chowder,
    Thank you for good blogpost.
    Can you provide link to paper in Wall Street Journal by Jason Zweig please?

    Although whole stock market can have 50% pullback, more often it happens with a single stock price or dividend. Even "quality blue chip companies" are not sustainable from 50% dividends cuts, although their prices usually do not drop 50% in 1 day, so the answer to this risk is well known /I even would not name it 8-) /.

    Recovery of prices or dividends are happens but I guess time of recovery is hard to predict - some historical data presented in (see http://seekingalpha.co....

    "Confiscation can be attributed to a surge in taxation". - Yes and dividends were the target quite often, so IMO dividend investors should be active and contact their government reps about tax policy. I lived in communist country there confiscation was almost legal even most of people dislike it.

    BTW, recently good article on the subject appeared at http://seekingalpha.co..., there main risks for dividend investors are specified as

    * Unforeseen and unplanned for events might necessitate the need to sell shares of stock in the portfolio. This will impact the income stream.
    * Hyper inflation takes hold and the dividend stream is less able to keep up. This will reduce the purchasing power of our income.
    * The Government decides to raise all taxes on all forms of dividends. This action will also erode the value of our income stream.
    * The dividend champion stocks either reduce the percentage of increases per year or just stop the dividends completely. This would be terrible when combined with increased taxes and hyper inflation.

    Although I would agree that "dividend growth is the best hedge against inflation." for modern inflation I don't know appopriate shield against hyperinflation. Again I faced it in my "previous" life and it is terrible. Monetary policy in last few years (in USA and EU) might lead to hyperinflation in next decade, so any this topic seems me important.

    SDS
    Aug 14, 2013. 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Define Risk In Dividend-Paying Stocks [View article]
    Nowadays some companies increase dividends each quarter, so their BoD can claim that companies which increase dividends only once per year are not real DG players 8-).

    Although there is no official definition of DG company as far as I know and I use more relaxed criteria than e.g. David Fish, I think that CCC list present a core for US firms with DG patterns.

    So IMO we can use David Fish criteria as working definition and explain why we consider the company as DG player in each case if it is not in CCC list.

    SDS
    Aug 13, 2013. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Final Thoughts On Beating The S&P 500 Index From A Dividend-Growth Perspective [View article]
    Chowder,

    My question was more rhetoric/humorous than real - if answer for survivorship will be so simple it would be priced on for large-caps (DC invested mostly in 2006). Any human (I'm one of the first) often claims not confirmed statements - IMO you did it in previous comment.

    As far as I remember your rule is DGR+Y=12% or above (except utilites). So if DGR=8% and Yield drops below 4% (e.g. 3%) firm doesn't meet your rule. But in this case I don't see any reason to believe that company cannot survive. The case your just described - DGR reduction indeed might indicate financial problems but again not always. There are plenty of companies which increase annual dividend at fixed amount (e.g. 1 cents, 4 cents, 27 cents, etc...) - of course their DGRs reduce with time (just simple math). But in this case I also don't see any reason to believe that company cannot survive although I'd buy such stock at higher yield than stock of a company which increase annual dividend at fixed percent (Robert Allan Schwartz shows that it is not so common and "bumps" are typical for DG firms).

    I think your rule is good enough for stocks selection and it is actually can be derived from common perception about stock returns, but don't take it and the common perception too religious. Almost any law or rule in physics has limits there it work, IMO any rule in investment has even tighter limits, and therefore investor must be flexible.

    I do not suggest you or somebody else change investment style, I just probably hold my stocks longer than you through freezes and even cuts.

    SDS
    Aug 13, 2013. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Final Thoughts On Beating The S&P 500 Index From A Dividend-Growth Perspective [View article]
    Chowder,
    Any proof for "Companies that meet the Chowder Rule (yield plus dividend growth equal 8% or better) will survive." 8-) ?
    IMO you are right in "I want to know what the survivors had in common that the others didn't." and the second face of this coin should be "I want to know what the failures had in common that the survivors didn't". Actually one the mail goal of Dividend Heritage Project (see my SA blog) is to find answer(s) to this.
    SDS
    Aug 12, 2013. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Final Thoughts On Beating The S&P 500 Index From A Dividend-Growth Perspective [View article]
    DVK

    I presumed (seems wrongly) that DC had much more than 9 stocks in 2006. I didn't check the definitions but I guess "survivorship bias" occurs when we don't have good historical information (e.g. documents are missing or data are removed from database) and "survivorship base" occurs when we ignore known historical information. I pointed on potential survivorship base in the report (again it is not exactly the same as survivorship bias) if DC removed from calculations any stock he sold. Actually he did it with ABT but in this case fortunately the result of the study didn't change dramatically.
    SDS
    Aug 12, 2013. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Final Thoughts On Beating The S&P 500 Index From A Dividend-Growth Perspective [View article]
    AgAuMoney,
    I'm OK with any work-in-progress report, except if deadline is tomorrow and work is not done (not this case).
    SDS
    Aug 12, 2013. 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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