SDS (Seductive Dividend Stocks)

SDS (Seductive Dividend Stocks)
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • Have Index Funds Become Too Popular?  [View article]
    Larry,
    Thank you for good article. Even being almost active investor (almost because S&P500 fund is the only good choice in my 401K), I think that you are almost right (almost because an index is not investable, investors deal with ETFs or MFs). This small difference (ETF vs index) might be vital -see http://bit.ly/XNfrZV

    A note on math: "X must equal 15%" is incorrect statement. You need to say something like "mean X must equal 15%" (depends on distribution).

    Happy Holidays!
    SDS
    Dec 26, 2013. 08:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Raise Cash For Fear Of A Market Crash  [View article]
    Hilo... wrote "1) If the market goes up enough between now and the next correction, the new "lower" post-correction prices could be higher than they are today. Now, _that_ would suck."

    Well, but will you more happy with the stock purchase on saved cash if in the next correction ratios like P/E will be lower than now?

    SDS
    Dec 26, 2013. 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Raise Cash For Fear Of A Market Crash  [View article]
    Not exactly to the article title, probably not a new, and not applicable for anybody but nevertheless argument for cash:
    New good companies appear sometimes (e.g. a firm was promoted to CCC list). Investor without cash has no chance to own such stocks.
    SDS
    Dec 26, 2013. 05:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Raise Cash For Fear Of A Market Crash  [View article]
    Chuck,
    Thank you for good article
    Basically you propose to stay 100% invested and I have some concerns about this idea ( see http://bit.ly/1dksfCN)
    I'd suggest to read The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor / Howard Marks

    Happy Holidays!

    SDS
    Dec 26, 2013. 12:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Payout Ratios Predict Higher Earnings Growth - Huh?  [View article]
    David,
    Thank you for good article.
    See http://bit.ly/XRf3gk for buybacks. The Slate article author was probably brainwashed with so-called MM theorem.

    As far as I remember Arnott and Assness analyzed US market (not individual companies), so exclusions are possible. I guess trend might be opposite for firms with very high payouts (well above 72% on graph).

    SDS
    Dec 26, 2013. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends In The Ring Vs. Share Buybacks: Mathematically Solved  [View article]
    see http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 26, 2013. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Most Dividend Investors Never Succeed  [View article]
    Seekingbetaguy,

    3% is often the initial yield. So called yield on cost YoC increased in time in case of DGI, and some DGIs expect to have YoC ~ 10% after a decade of DGI practice. It seems as a reasonable expectation with Average DRG ~ 6.5% (http://bit.ly/PSYFbn) and compounding due to reinvesting (not necessary in the same companies).

    SDS
    Dec 26, 2013. 10:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Most Dividend Investors Never Succeed  [View article]
    georgebeddoe

    I have almost no doubt that the author doesn't have statistics for "most dividend investors" claim but I guess article with title like "Mistakes 0.4% of investors did" will not attract any attention.

    "My dividend income is up 8% so far in 2013 over my 2012 dividend income" - I guess my portfolio DGR-2013 will be lower (because of many special dividends in 2012" but I don't monitor it so often (will do in Jan).

    SDS
    Dec 26, 2013. 10:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Most Dividend Investors Never Succeed  [View article]
    Dividend Growth Investor,
    Thank you for good article. I think you're right and just want to add couple arguments

    I'm amazing how many Dividend Growth Investors (DGis in my notation) reports their performance at quarterly (or more often) basis while Dividend Growth Investing (DGI in my notation) is the long-term strategy where 3-5 years is "a second". These DGis often happy with 30% annual price gain and jump in and out as rabbits.

    I think "20 truly exceptional investment ideas over their lifetimes" is the unproven myth which came from /probably/ Warren Buffett (who has ownership much more different firms). I think that many DGis are under-diversified (I hope to finish research in 2014, so preliminary thought are in my SA blog). Concentration of money in few stocks makes thse DGis more nervous about noise around each company they have and as result they often dump shares at dividend freeze or cut. IMO dividend freeze or cut is NOT itself the reason to sell stocks (http://bit.ly/rrrjkX) without DD.

    DGI involves analysis of companies during stock holding but for many such firms it is quite simple and not time consuming if proper DD was done at purchase.

    SDS
    Dec 26, 2013. 10:07 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Invest In Asia-Pacific Dividend Stocks  [View article]
    It seems that US$ will rise to compare with other currencies in 2014 and probably interest rates will go up in 2014 or 2015, so foreign dividends will be less attractive for US investors in near future.
    SDS
    Dec 26, 2013. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividends Matter During Any Market Condition  [View article]
    Nikko Asset Management, Singapore didn't show anything new (see http://bit.ly/xFpiPl) and repeated old calculation mistake.
    Dec 26, 2013. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Discarded Gems' Of Dividend Growth Investors  [View article]
    earthtodan,
    AstraZeneca has typical dividend pattern for UK company with semiannual payments. Look their annual dividends on http://longrundata.com
    SDS
    Dec 24, 2013. 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In A Rising Interest Rate Environment  [View article]
    Not all stocks were created equal, not all formally equal changes of interest rates are the same.
    Happy Holidays!
    SDS
    Dec 23, 2013. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Discarded Gems' Of Dividend Growth Investors  [View article]
    Kurtis,
    I thought about your results on the way to work, and following questions appeared:
    Why 4 and 9 years were selected - are results robust for 5,6,7...20 years of DG or quasi-DG?
    Why data start in 2001, can you expand the study, please?
    SDS
    Dec 23, 2013. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Discarded Gems' Of Dividend Growth Investors  [View article]
    Kurtis,
    Thank you for good article. Some notes:

    Yes other approaches might out-perform (“can compound your investment capital quicker “) DGI. But I think experience with real DG portfolio in accumulation phase will be useful (at least for me) in redistribution phase

    Are dividend growth investors (DGis) being overly strict with their stock selection?
    “….dividend stocks which either held or increased dividends annually, where at least one year had a dividend that stayed the same. This subset of dividends stocks will have no overlap with the traditional dividend growth universe as these would be in the 'discard pile'.”
    IMO there is life beyond CCC list (see e.g. http://seekingalpha.co...) and I nvest in companies with “delays“ of DG. My point that firm’s business cycle not always coincide with 365 days.


    > We will rebalance one every 52 weeks.
    I don’t rebalance on regular basis and so often.

    To graphs: Although my portfolio is quite wide I guess I’ll never have 500 DG stocks in it. It would be useful IMO to combine graphs results in a table.

    “I will create a strategy rebalancing every 26 weeks that selects the 'best 15' stocks from the discard pile that had at least 4 years of dividend history... where no year had a decrease, but where at least one year held the dividend the same.”
    Well no criteria for best are provided, Did you look rear-mirror for this selection? It smells to me as data mining….

    Happy Holidays!
    SDS
    Dec 23, 2013. 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
4,208 Comments
3,328 Likes