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SDS (Seductive Dividend Stocks)

SDS (Seductive Dividend Stocks)
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  • Why Selling A Few Shares Is Not The Same As Getting A Dividend [View article]
    DVK
    Thank you nice effort but I guess it will come to dead ears.
    Anybody who knows that number of shares cannot be infinity should understand that "create his own dividend by selling a few shares" is a stupid proposal which benefit stockbrokers but not shareholder.
    SDS
    May 8 03:17 PM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Champions For January 2014 [View article]
    David,
    Thank you for update and new info. I recently wrote "David Fish reaches fantastic ability (~ 90%) to time dividend increases for DG stocks (see his numerous SA articles). I do not know any other financial forecast with even 80% correct rate for quite huge number of stocks (~ 500 in CCC list). " This is 1 more reason why CCC list is very important.
    SDS
    Jan 2 12:31 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Obama's 'MyRA' Plan Will Impact The U.S. Economy [View article]
    Well IMO myRA is a government trick to sell U.S. treasury bonds (bought in bulk from bank in last few years) to Joe who doesn't understand inflation.
    SDS
    Jan 30 08:18 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Hold Cash In This Market [View article]
    OFF-TOPIC:
    SA new design is not friendly for dividends and income section, it become harder to find. IMO SA authors should complain.
    SDS
    Dec 12 10:49 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's A Mistake To Hold Cash In This Market [View article]
    OFF-TOPIC
    David Crosetti wrote to wmateri
    "Can you put that comment into some form of regular English so that we all would be able to discern what you are trying to say?"

    Sometimes I say "English is not my second language, it is the language I don't know but have to use in hope that other will try to understand what I think".

    We come to SA from different backgrounds....

    SDS
    Dec 12 01:13 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Health Care REITs: Factors Behind 5.5% Payouts [View article]
    1 year data...... to long for traders, too short for investors. Just IMO.....
    Dec 22 08:28 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rebalancing My Dividend Growth Portfolio For Diversification And More Yield [View article]
    Thanks for the article, David!
    I'm in minority camp with 100+ quasi-equal weighted positions at the purchase moment 8-). I believe a well-diversified dividend investor should have 100+ and if time allows will explain why. Being a long-term investor, I don't care that some of my DG and HY stocks appreciated more than 300% and some drops about 70% (but company has good business) and as Winnie-the-Pooh says -“Don't underestimate the value of doing nothing".
    SDS
    Feb 8 09:25 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Misguided Interest In Dividend Paying Stocks [View article]
    Larry,

    Thank you for good article. Some points:

    Ned Davis Associates show that dividend payers strongly outperformed SP500 in 1972-2012. So couple bad years do not informative.

    "The typical portfolios we build for our clients contain over 10,000 stocks." - DiWORSification? I analyzed briefly more that 25K stocks, only about 2K are worth for investor (not speculator) IMO.
    Diversification should reduce different risks not to be the goal per se. See http://bit.ly/J0r2m2 and http://bit.ly/102frew

    "...the aggregate stream of dividend payments is subject to the same broad, macroeconomic risks that affect capital gains."
    Agree but how you Larry or any other equity investor get money from a company capital gains? I know only 2 ways - dividends and next fool search.

    As far as I know it is not forbidden to combine value and dividend investing. Many DGis here on SA buy ONLY undervalued stocks and sell overvalued stocks. I consider my DG/HY approach as subset of value investing, where I impose additional restrictions on stocks. This restriction didn't prevent me to build well diversified 100+ stocks portfolio. I started to invest in 1998, became DGi in 2006 and my gain for this period is about 3.3X versus about 2X for S&P500.

    "The above data makes clear that the expected returns for both SDY and VIG are well below that the expected returns of the two large value strategies." The key word here is expected. Please read "How to lie with statistics" / Darrell Huff

    SDS

    SDS
    Dec 16 03:30 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Dividend Opportunity Portfolio Philosophy And Beginning Picks [View article]
    Nicholas,
    I'm not a polite person, so let me put cold water on your head:
    a) Expect yield Y=8% in current situation IMO is a way to see troubles with dividend cuts, etc... For what heck do you need such Y "having 30+ working years left"?
    b) Have goal YoC=9% at Y=8% means that your holding time about 2 years, it is IMO not compatible with dividend investing (esp. DGI).
    c) "The Dividend Core stocks are sold only if their yield drops below 5% or their dividend is cut several times I may review them as well for sale. " Although single cut might be OK (http://bit.ly/rrrjkX) I do not recall any good case for firms with 3+ cuts.
    4) What fee as % to investment you pay when you buy 5 shares? Is you goal to feed your stock broker?
    5) "I plan to have an article updating the status every three months unless there are significant changes and then I'll update monthly. " Check who said "Be silent if you cannot say anything important".

    SDS
    Sep 10 01:04 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Matter If They Matter To You [View article]
    viperman:
    "The trick is to find those companies whose earnings will grow BEFOREHAND."
    Yep for earnings this is really trick lot of Wall Streeters try to play each quarter. For dividends trick is quite simple - open CCC list and select companies with with growing earnings AS DETERMINED AFTER THE FACT in last 5 years and DG above 20 years. With ~ 99% probability these companies WILL increase dividends within next 2 years.
    I prefer to play the simple game and there is math behind such preference.
    SDS
    Aug 15 12:52 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buying Aristocrats Can Result In Long-Term Dividend Growth [View article]
    on NOBL
    a) Fees 0.35% are too high in long run (I guess will be even higher after "Contractual Waiver ending 9/30/15").
    b) Time period for comparison NOBL with anything is tooooo short. (index behind exists only from from 2005).
    c) Rebalance is too often in NOBL/index for this investment style.

    Long-term investor might do better him/her-self (http://seekingalpha.co...)
    SDS
    Mar 28 09:45 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Get The Most Out Of Dividend Growth [View article]
    Cranky

    Any good investment style in stock delivers the market, or less or more in various periods. Now the market price (e.g. SPY) itself is fluctuates quite strongly. For simplicity let's say stock market spends 10% of time near peaks, 10% near bottoms, 50% below and 50% above average for medium term history (~ 15 years).

    As far as I understood you proposal can be simplified as following 3 step process /you see physicists always simplify the reality 8-0/:
    1) invest in SPY till day 1 of retirement (D1R)
    2) convert SPY in DG ETF (assume such exists) in this day
    3) enjoy your retirement
    It seems that you presume that SPY will be at least 50% above average or better at 10% near peak at D1R. We know that it is not always the case.

    IMO if person starts DGI well before D1R she does not depend on stock market conditions at this D1R so she can avoid all worries about SPY direction in D1R-365days or D1R-999days or so. As the result this DGi will be more healthy than SPY investor at D1R.
    Second benefit: the person who starts DGI well before D1R will gain hands-on experience in DGI (unfortunately it is needed because no good DG MF or ETF exists and good DG-MF even impossible).
    Third benefit: the person who starts DGI well before D1R will have opportunity to pick up good stocks at cheap prices during pre-D1R journey,

    Therefore the step 3) "enjoy your retirement" might be better for a DGi than for SPY investor.

    SDS
    Mar 12 07:35 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing: Myths 16-20 [View article]
    pat12357

    There is the difference between real money (even fiat) and accounting tricks. There is the difference between hope (to have huge capital gain from (say) next biotech) and cash. For many dividend investors (including me) total return is less important than <future> income.

    With some strong and unrealistic assumptions economist like Miller and Modigliani claimed that dividends aren't important. Reality (see e.g. http://seekingalpha.co...) doesn't support such models. As you hopefully know in this case model would not be accepted in physics. Wall Street often prefer to accept and sell dreams regardless to reality.

    SDS
    Jan 27 08:27 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bogle On Favoring Dividends And Capitalizing Social Security [View article]
    I became indexer ~ 15 years ago in the beginning of my investment journey due to excellent John Bogle books. IMO, he is one of rarely honest person in the industry and I'd strongly suggest to read his books. Then I started to invest my goal was common and quite simple - to make more money. But under influence of Lowell Miller excellent book "The single best investment: creating wealth with dividend growth" I started to think a'la "Well, I'm making enough money now and even more than enough because I can save and invest some money. So why my goal is to make more money? I'll retire in one day and my salary will be zero, probably I'll retire before 65 so my social security will be zero. Therefore I meed to create cash flow available next day after the retirement" Hence I became a DGi. Nevertheless, I think that many John Bogle ideas are correct and indexing is a good way for many investors.
    I appreciate that DVK follows John Bogle and posted this good article. I'm happy that John Bogle is a dividend investing proponent now - he is smart and honest guy who really care about average American Joe....
    I don't understand why Joe cannot recognize that money from social security as good as money from bonds, dividends, renters, etc.... Are social security money not coming green?
    SDS
    .
    Oct 25 04:04 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dave Van Knapp Positions For 2013: Tuning Out Market 'Noise' With Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    Jonathan and Dave Thank you for the interview. Being mostly a dividend growth investor (DGi) and a contrarian let me point:

    1) It is better to start dividend growth investing (DGI) well before retirement, to be successful DGi is worth to read Dave papers on SA, his latest annual book and other books listed http://seekingalpha.co...
    DGI is almost life-time commitment, so I doubt that it is easy for young people to become a DGi. They need to learn how not to listen market noise.

    2)"dividend streams from the best dividend growth stocks? I feel good about those. I anticipate that 2013 will be more or less like 2011 and 2012"
    I hope the same but new taxes might change BoD minds....

    3) Dividend bubble is mathematically impossible - see http://seekingalpha.co... but there was a kind of bubble in special dividends in Nov-Dec 2012

    4) BP was Black Swan event, some dividends cutters can be classified as Black Swans (http://seekingalpha.co...).

    To be continued....

    Happy holidays!
    SDS
    Dec 27 09:55 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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