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  • Dividend Investing And 'Payback': Why It Pays To Watch Closely [View article]
    David Crosetti
    Thank you for the article.
    You're lucky to have your DG in tax-deferred accounts. Unfortunately taxes make such game more difficult.
    On another hand, I hold stocks for a while and now my average YOC in IRA account is about 7%, so it is difficult to find good replacement until 2X-3X price appreciation.
    So, I'd rather agree with chowder and Clay King.
    BTW, you comments indeed clarified your position.


    Chowder
    Thanks for "opening your kimono". I still own HGIC and wait full 60$ reward (but probably replace it sooner with something from Europe - see http://bit.ly/w0UOGf

    Dveikus
    I'd suggest to read David Van Knapp @ SA or Lowell Miller book mentioned early (it opens my eyes in 2006, I wish I was able to find DG idea at your age).
    BTW do not ignore financial sector in 2011/2 - some US and European gems are at cement price now.

    SeattleMike,
    I'd consider these as first steps in long run and hold these stocks except something terrible happens with companies ( to me annual negative earnings are not terrible enough).
    Nov 4, 2011. 01:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After The Dividend Cut: To Buy Or To Sell [View article]
    One example is Cedar Fair, L.P. /FUN/ - company cutted dividends (more accurately distributions) in 2009 and winter 2011 , then announced today 11/3/11:
    "Finally, we are pleased to announce our Board of Directors has declared a cash distribution of $0.70 per LP unit, payable on December 15, 2011... With this fourth-quarter distribution, we will have satisfied our previously announced intention to pay $1.00 in distributions to unitholders in 2011. We expect to return to a regular quarterly distribution in 2012 with a continued focus on providing a sustainable and growing distribution for our unitholders, while at the same time appropriately managing our debt levels and investing in our business."
    Regular distributions before 2009 cut were 0.48c/unit. If FUN indeed will pay $1.92 annual distribution in 2012 it means that now we can buy (and I just did it) this former Dividend Contender (according to David Fish list) at yield above 9%.

    About company
    Cedar Fair, L.P. is a limited partnership managed by Cedar Fair Management, Inc. (the General Partner). The Company, along with its affiliated companies (the Partnership), is an amusement park operator, which owns 11 amusement parks, six outdoor water parks, one indoor water park and five hotels. The amusement parks include Cedar Point, located on Lake Erie between Cleveland and Toledo in Sandusky, Ohio; Kings Island near Cincinnati, Ohio; Canada's Wonderland near Toronto, Canada; Dorney Park & Wildwater Kingdom (Dorney Park), located near Allentown in South Whitehall Township, Pennsylvania; Valleyfair, located near Minneapolis/St. Paul in Shakopee, Minnesota; Michigan's Adventure located near Muskegon, Michigan; Kings Dominion near Richmond, Virginia; Carowinds in Charlotte, North Carolina; Worlds of Fun located in Kansas City, Missouri; Knott's Berry Farm, located near Los Angeles in Buena Park, California, and California's Great America located in Santa Clara, California.

    Personal notes:
    1) California's Great America located in Santa Clara, California was quite busy this summer and I expect couple more years for local families who cannot afford expensive vacations (unemployment in CA is high now).
    2) Although I just bought FUN, do not blame me in pushing stock up - it is less that 2% of my portfolio.
    Nov 3, 2011. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Growing Bubble of Health Insurance Premiums [View instapost]
    "Canada, Costa Rica, ...."
    I used to live in countries there medicine was NOT a business (all hospitals, medical offices did not run for profit) and I did trust doctors there more than doctors in USA. The quality of medicine wasn't so good in terms of equipment. Most doctors there recommended preventive and fix-treatment medicine and did not wait for surgery. I guess /because my health is good and I don't have experience/ that USA doctors prefer Tylenol, more Tylenol and then expensive surgery instead of cheap fixes. In the result cost of insurance is too high in USA. The cost will be even higher (or quality and accessibility drops) with Obamacare if a working person pays for 100% healthy adults who live due to social benefits and whose grandparents and parents had never work, for illegal emigrants who work for cash in black market, for many layers of bureaucrat between me doctor and insurer.
    Nov 2, 2011. 08:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Advantage Of Volatility - A Diversification Opportunity For Dividend Growth Investors [View article]
    Rodger Luebke
    Thank you for good article and comments.
    "I have so many accounts, roths, regular IRAs, rollover IRAs"
    I think in order to have big $$$ for reinvesting (not small $ to keep % of expenses for fees low) it is better to combine different accounts like regular IRAs, rollover IRAs into one.
    Sincerely,
    SDS
    Nov 2, 2011. 08:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Scanning The World For The Best Dividend Stocks [View article]
    I posted "European stocks for sale (Nov 1, 2011) in my Instablog
    Nov 2, 2011. 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Here's What Mr. Market Says: 'Ban Dividends' [View article]
    David Crosetti - thank you for answer. Medical is my (and I guess many folks) biggest concern for retirement regardless that I'm in perfect health now.
    Nov 1, 2011. 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Importance Of Due Diligence (Exemplified By Johnson & Johnson) [View article]
    Dear Bob,

    Thank you for excellent article I just read and recommended. I'd like to see your DD articles on other stocks you hold.

    Sincerely,
    SDS
    Oct 30, 2011. 08:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • After The Dividend Cut: To Buy Or To Sell [View article]
    Jeff Paul,

    Thank you for interesting article. Many companies (included "former" CCC) recovered their dividends after cut - see http://seekingalpha.co...

    Sincerely
    SDS
    Oct 20, 2011. 12:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Growth Investors Should Not Ignore Stock Prices [View article]
    Jeff,
    "I'm not sure why you would only consider the signal valid if it occurred in the 3 months before the actual cut."
    I don't want to lose my dividends (esp. if YOC is above 10%) for a signal that seems not very reliable (I still hope you will proof that -20% signal is reliable for DG stocks indeed) if I sell too early.

    "Yes, more analysis would be good, but there are just so many of these firms"
    Not too many. CCC list is about 400 stocks only and you can download their stock prices from Yahoo. I almost sure that a good macro in MS-Excel allows compare a stock price with SP500 price to make the comparison less labor intensive.

    "I consider this a work-in-progress, and we'll see over time what happens with it. :-)"
    Yep, I'm trying to help....

    Sincerely
    SDS
    Oct 16, 2011. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A System For Picking The Best Long-Term Dividend Growers [View article]
    Atabaki @ Stocks1,

    Thank you for good detailed article.

    I own some of stocks you listed and used a bit more simple approach for their selection. For curiosity I'll probably calculate Atabaki number for my stocks (including MLPs and REITs) and 2 points unclear:
    "If PR >150 I use a somewhat more complex smoothing formula to calculate the PR adjustment."
    Can you disclosure, please
    "If P/E >0 Add the following to the Normalized DGR: (15 - PE)/8"
    What do you use if current P/E<0?

    Sincerely
    SDS
    Oct 16, 2011. 12:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Growth Investors Should Not Ignore Stock Prices [View article]
    Jeff,
    "I don't know about optimal values…that would be a further research effort."
    I kind of agree but I afraid that the whole concept should be verified first. A bigger (but different !!!) sample of dividend cuts [studied in just published paper "Losses, Dividend Reductions, and Market Reaction Associated with Past Earnings and Dividends Patterns" by Andreas Charitou, Neophytos Lambertides and Giorgos Theodoulou and published in Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance v. 26 (2011) pp. 351-382] does not indicate for your signal existence. Again because you worked with DG stocks (untypical for academic studies) your results might be valid but "Karl Popper said HELLO to you". Just in case for investors not familiar with Karl - see Wikipedia's http://bit.ly/p8NUOw paper.

    Sincerely
    SDS
    Oct 16, 2011. 09:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Growth Investors Should Not Ignore Stock Prices [View article]
    Jeff,

    "The signal mostly occurred months ahead of the cut announcement."
    I think the -20% signal is valid for cutters only if it occurred between the dividends cut announcement date - 1 day and the previous {regular} dividends announcement +1 day (e.g., for companies that pay dividends quarterly in means that 4-weeks should be within 3 months - 2 days period). Most of companies in your list paid quarterly dividends before a cut (and still pay quarterly).

    How to interpret your results in all other cases of the "too early" signal for cutters?
    It seems that investors suppose to sell at -20% signal and not collect at least 1 dividend payment (and for long-term investors in good DG firms with high YOC it can be significant amount). I'm afraid that brokers rather than investors will win (collecting fees and having $ to advertise "stop loss" service) from such sell policy because many non-cutters also had -20% dip (according for example to the part 2 of your really good article).

    Unfortunately, ANY -20% signal for non-cutters and ANY "too late" signal for cutters (i hope you ignored such "signal") decrease usefulness of your findings. Therefore to verify your results as many as possible DG non-cutters should be checked for -20% signal appearance.

    Sincerely
    SDS
    Oct 16, 2011. 08:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Growth Investors Should Not Ignore Stock Prices [View article]
    Jeff,

    "How about if I send you my spreadsheet?"
    OK I'd appreciate. I posted my in http://bit.ly/rrrjkX and I sent it to you by email. Let's work together.

    SA Folks,
    The mentioned short note "Don’t panic if dividends were cut" in my istablog (BTW, it has table of contents for your convenience) contains raw arguments why it is not always smart to sell stock at dividend cut I mentioned several times in my comments to different SA articles.

    Sincerely
    SDS
    Oct 16, 2011. 08:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Growth Investors Should Not Ignore Stock Prices [View article]
    Jeff,

    As a physicist I'm trying to be very precise to methodology, so please uncover some details.

    1. Often earnings and dividends announcement are done in the same day. How many such cases in your case? How many dividend cuts were announced before/after earnings.
    2. How many days separate dividend cut announcement and end of 4 consecutive weeks of -20% under-performance for companies with quarterly dividends (median, mean, distribution)?
    3. Are 4 weeks and -20% optimal in term of signal/noise ratio for cutters and non-cutters?

    I don't want to fry you and I think you produced very good research (in contrast with many SA articles that have no value), so it is worth to discuss details.

    Sincerely
    SDS
    Oct 16, 2011. 01:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dividend Growth Investors Should Not Ignore Stock Prices [View article]
    BruceCM
    Thank you for the answer and REITs clarification. I agree with you on payout ratio. Please see my instablog (it has content) for my view on "slow dividends".
    Sincerely
    SDS
    Oct 15, 2011. 11:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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