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SDS (Seductive Dividend Stocks)
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Sorry I hide my true identity but I'm a physicist/engineer, native contrarian and idea generator. I am an eclectic dividend investor with motto "In God We Trust, All Others Pay Cash" applied to companies I invest in. I like to read /and read a lot - did you look on my SA photo 8-)? /... More
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  • On Dividend Research From Ned Davis Research

    Many dividend growth investing (NYSE:DGI) proponents (including myself) use famous Ned Davis Research graph (fig.1) to argue that dividend investing is outperforming approach. Usually this graph came from a third party and unfortunately the original source is not available for small dividend growth investors (DGis). But this graph might be not so impressive for DGis as it appears on the first glance. Do you not that the top orange line is for dividend growers AND initiators? If yes - how many dividend initiators are in your portfolio. It is Zero in my…..

    Fig 1.

    At least couple questions should be answered for better understanding of the graph:

    a) What is the definition for dividend growers in Ned Davis Research report? Are these companies from David Fish's or similar list with long history of dividend growth or just companies which increase dividends in year N to compare with year N-1?.

    b) What is the definition for dividend initiators in Ned Davis Research report? Will be ABC company qualify as the dividend initiator in 2013 if last dividend they paid 1973 or in 1990 or in 2011 but not paid dividend in 2012, 1991-2012, 1974-2012?

    Any DGi knows how to find a dividend grower - just look dividend history (or David Fish CCC list), check recent years earnings (better if they are positive in last 3-5 years), check payout ratio (better if it is below e.g. 50% in last 3-5 years), check company announcement (verify that they are not going to cut dividends soon for other usage of capita) and you might be 99% sure that this firm will pay dividends next year.

    I have no clue how to find a dividend initiator. Should I just read company announcements? How can I be sure that the initiation of dividend will lead to long dividend history (well some companies promise to pay dividend next 3-5 years but I do not recall anything beyond such relatively short period /I guess CEO and BOD cannot foresee/).

    I think we should address questions a) and b) to Ned Davis Research (ndr.com). Hopefully they will answer if couple dozens people ask them….

    12 Aug 2014

    Aug 12 11:34 AM | Link | Comment!
  • My Investment Activity From 2009

    Well I guess this blogpost can be interested only to myself, anyway....

    I left stock market in summer 2008 and parked all money in few FDIC insured CD accounts. The best was 5% 1 year CD from WaMu just in a week before the bank closed doors. I was stupid enough to keep money until CD maturities to avoid penalties. I don't know how big were the penalties, I guess less than 5% and hence much less I can earn if I closed all CDs in beginning of June 2009 when I decided that the bottom is over. Most of my invested money came from matured CD in 2009/10, after this period money came from my income and dividends. The details are in the table below:

    Quarter_End_DayInvested, a.u
    09/30/0928.53495
    12/31/0910.43948
    03/31/102.742406
    06/30/106.705532
    09/30/104.521366
    12/31/101.04974
    03/31/112.788
    06/30/113.240387
    09/30/112.551987
    12/31/111.431862
    03/31/123.351596
    06/30/123.432402
    09/30/121
    12/31/121.942625
    03/31/131.80122
    06/30/133.138279
    09/30/131.08141
    12/31/131.2903
    03/31/141.51972

    It seems that kind of quasi-sinus function appeared after 2010 with local maximums in spring (4/1-6/30) period although I'm not a season worker 8-) and had no tax returns. I'm ready (have cash) for 2014 spring, let see if market will create good bargains.

    31 March 2014

    Mar 31 11:09 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Ecology & Environment, Inc. Might Cut Dividends

    Ecology & Environment, Inc. (NASDAQ:EEI) reported quite frustrated results (finance.yahoo.com/news/ecology-environme...) in March 2014 after significant losses in 2013. I think that EEI might cut dividends.

    25 March 2014

    Mar 26 10:16 AM | Link | Comment!
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