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Suzhou Blue Tiger

Suzhou Blue Tiger
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  • Suntech: A No-Brainer Short [View article]
    I live 30 min from the plant. All good assets have been transferred into Wuxi government. Your crazy if you own this stock. Thats all I can say. Disclosure: I don't trade in this company either long or short.
    May 21, 2013. 03:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Buy Toyota: The Worst Is Priced In [View article]
    As a former 15 year vet of China's automotive industry I will tell you Japanese cars are never coming back in China. Japan, EU, and now the world's largest car market ,China is now a no-growth and decline for them. Volumes may go to close to nothing, forcing closure of plants. Toyota's plants in China are now bleeding money as volume drops in high CAPEX investments turn bad real fast. Imported parts for Toyota's plants will also drop off a cliff. You mention only 15% of TM's sales are in China but that does not capture all of the parts sales from Japan. In the U.S., they now have to compete against U.S. competitors getting cash from the government. I have been to Toyota many times, the average engineer is in his 50's. This company is a story of the last decade. Check my blog, "The China Money Report" for more info. I'm short Toyota.
    Oct 24, 2012. 04:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Looks Highly Attractive After The Recent Sell-Off [View article]
    China wants RE prices higher. They have the strategy of no longer "selling gold for the price of potato's". The RE prices were dragged extremely low as Chinese state owned companies kept fighting each other on price. That doesn't sound like much of a "master plan" on RE. These companies were state owned and were destroying the environment with no pollution control during extraction. China has put RE on an exchange with the intent purpose of trying to get prices higher.
    Oct 15, 2012. 12:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good And Bad News For Molycorp [View article]
    There is a lot of talk on the math behind rare earth prices but people are missing the production math. Molycorp is moving from 3k tons annual to 40k tons annual. Even if rare earth prices continue lower the company will see explosive revenue growth. Technicals on the chart are scary and I believe it is a poster child for hedge fund shorts. Example would be MCP was one of the victims on the Knight Fund flash crash debacle when it plunged 19% in 5 minutes then made it back before end of the day. I'm sure Knight is not the only Hedge fund gaming this stock. Lynas is MCP's only global competitor for while and let us not forget the real production base, China, just slashed mining permits by 41%. You also have the Chinese government doing everything they can to push up prices including moving prices to an exchange where they can be controlled. I'm long MCP for these reasons as well as the Neomaterials acquisition is worth more than the entire market cap of MCP at this stage.
    Oct 15, 2012. 03:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Molycorp Will Not Be Acquired [View article]
    Yes, supply and demand dynamics have changed. China just cut mining permits by 41% and may cut Japan off RE over the South sea issues. Molycorp is losing money but one fact might be important for you…they haven't started full production until a month or so ago. They have been selling out of old inventory, and losing money at 3k tons/annually. They are planning 10-12k tons before end of 2012 which is being produced and sold as we speak. Watch Molycorp rocket on next earnings as losses become profits and all the jump-on-the-band wagon shorts will disappear.
    Sep 28, 2012. 12:30 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Down Nearly 11% In One Day - What Happened? [View article]
    What a bunch of non-sense. China's quota system did set off a demand shock for RE prices but new supply did not bring said prices down. The new supply (MCP & Lynas) have yet to start shipping, hard to see what set the prices down. What really happened is the Japanese saw a supply shortage coming and increased their orders by 400 percent in 2011. China saw that, and shut them down until they could get more control of RE prices. What brought the prices down is that these same Japanese companies have been using their stockpiled material and not ordering new material, hence RE prices collapsed. China has just cut mining permits by 41% and put RE prices on an exchange to control prices upward. Getting ready for a massive pop to the upside on this company.
    Sep 26, 2012. 08:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Light Rare Earth Metals Prices Have Furthest to Fall (Part II) [View article]
    Your article references "supply and demand" market fundamentals but makes no mention what is happening to supply in China. China is the market. They just cut mining permits 41% and put RE on an exchange to control prices upward.

    What happens over the Japan-China island conflict? They cut Japan off of RE exports in 2010, could happen again anytime.
    Sep 21, 2012. 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson Controls: Buy Now Or Later? [View article]
    No one ever mentions, their largest cost, lead, is dropping like…well a lead Zeppelin. Battery makers have still been putting in price increases to automakers nevertheless. JCI China's plants had big troubles the last few years, with many shut downs. All battery makers did. Many of JCI's polluting competition in China has been put out of business. That looks like its in the past now. Prices UP, costs Down. U.S. and China auto markets are not doing that badly. Chinese aftermarket business is skyrocketing.
    Sep 4, 2012. 12:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Kandi Is Poised To Become China's Electric Vehicle Market Leader [View article]
    You must not get to China much. BMW's everywhere. Largest sales region in the world for BMW is Zhejiang province. No one here wants Chinese cars, government has to prop them up. Even GM sells more cars in China than they do in the U.S. You think a go-cart maker will beat these guys? Go ahead and buy the stock, I dare you.
    Aug 23, 2012. 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Kandi Is Poised To Become China's Electric Vehicle Market Leader [View article]
    Nice press release. I thought it is interesting how the Kandi engineers were telling people they should not take the cars out of the city of Hangzhou or even run them at high speeds.

    This looks like not only is the go-kart company trying to make electric vehicles but they are trying to pilot a new business model where city governments will buy the vehicles and rent them out in cities.

    Good luck on getting people out of their BMW's in exchange for the city owned electric go-karts.
    Aug 12, 2012. 12:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Kandi Is Poised To Become China's Electric Vehicle Market Leader [View article]
    Arthur- No counter point to any of my arguments just name calling?
    How absurd of me to question that a small Go-Kart maker in China is not going to take over the worlds'd EV vehicle market!

    As someone who is been an automotive engineer in China as well as an executive in the Chinese automotive industry I can tell you this looks like total non-sense.

    1. There are many SOE's in China who have signed up to be involved with EV's. That is because the government is handing out $$ grants.
    Most of the time it comes to nothing.
    2. This company is based in Hangzhou, same hometown as Wanxiang which just bought a123. They can compete against Wanxiang?
    3. There are large, government backed car companies now in China that are struggling to sell cars against the foreign brands. All of them trying to develop EV.
    4. Does Kandi even have license from Beijing to produce cars? I would guess not.
    Aug 10, 2012. 10:25 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Kandi Is Poised To Become China's Electric Vehicle Market Leader [View article]
    Every car maker in China is trying to develop EV's but only BYD has a somewhat decent car. You can't actually buy one yet though.SAIC, Chery, Foton, Geely, Dongfeng, you name it, they have an EV program. GM, Ford, Benz, BMW also no full EV project yet. Call me skeptical but a company started in 2006 wants to compete in the automotive industry? Forget about it. It was also mentioned the company that $34 million in cash? That is less then most very small auto part companies carry in cash. That money won't even pay to tool up the vehicle components let alone tool up a vehicle factory.
    Car makers need billions. There is government support in every province for EV. Good luck!
    Aug 8, 2012. 11:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Molycorp Shares Worth Buying On The Recent Plunge? [View article]
    Market is focused on Q2, but they only sold 1,000 tons in the quarter. They are 2 months away from producing at a run@rate of 19,000 tons/year. The stand behind their 2012 production forecast of 8-10,000 tons. I don't see how revenues can increase at 5 times and the stock stay low at these levels. There phase 1 production is already sold out.
    Japanese were hoarding these materials in 2010 and early 2011. RE prices shot up when that happened, now the price has come way down as they stopped buying and using their stock. Now they need to buy again. In my opinion, stock is a gift at this point. and FYI- It was not said on the earnings call they they need to raise additional capital and therefore dilute shareholders.
    Aug 7, 2012. 06:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Buy Molycorp [View article]
    MCP has a ten bagger written all over it. Just need to buy and hold. China just put in the new RE Vat tax which should cut Chinese exports by half. This is a sellers market, they are buying all the capacity Moly will bring on-line. As the market takes into account the cuts in Chinese exports prices could zoom up again and stay there.
    The Chinese government is all over this, they don't want to export any RE and they sure don't want to sell for low prices. No more selling gold for the price of pork is what they say here.
    Jun 18, 2012. 01:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Focus On Mongolian Mining Corporation, Mongolia's Flagship Public Company [View article]
    Excellent analysis. Sold me. I will add this company in my portfolio.
    This is good fundamental analysis. My only concern would be on market timing issue which should be ignored if your a Buffet/Graham style investor. The timing issue is as follows: I am on the Board of a steel making plant here in China. We buy millions of USD per month of steel making materials i.e. coal, scrap steel, pig iron etc. No one expects the price of these materials to increase but many expect the prices to go down. The steel industry here is about to go through a major shake-out. Steel is priced less than Pork. Typical result of local governments putting money into local steel makers and driving down prices and driving up capacity. With that being said, MMC's China coal selling price is already so low that it might not matter to them. As long as they grow market share they will do well and as you mention China will cap domestic coal production which bodes well for MMC.
    Mar 31, 2012. 10:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment