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  • Talking Coal With SouthGobi Resources' CEO  [View article]
    Hello Jon - while I have you "here", also many thanks to you for your great work; absolutely impressive!
    All the best for you too, Frank
    Apr 2, 2012. 06:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Talking Coal With SouthGobi Resources' CEO  [View article]
    After having been burned by greed-induced actionism various times, I made myself a habit to first enter into a stock after following it for at least 4 month. My time for SouthGobi was last Friday - perfect timing for that news:
    Already +2x% on German stock exchanges, so Peter - thanks a lot for your great work!
    Apr 2, 2012. 04:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Being Looted  [View instapost]
    Hi Tom, thanks for the answer - and sorry, if I left the impression of national animosity.
    One of my best friends is born from Greece and since we didn't leave out that topic from our discussions, I hope to still have an educated view.
    As obvious as it is from few thousand miles away that whatever group of people just can't expect others to pay for their way of life eternally, as obvious it is too that the process of accommodation won't happen without some excess and some bashing for the messenger.
    My point of view is simply, that given the last events it might be a good time for all related parties to just mind their own business - no flag-burning and Nazi-comparisons required while sorting out interdependencies.
    I'll be fine to take whatever that might mean for us in DE through our over-leveraged banking system and whatever additional heads that Hydra might rear. We also had our chance in DE to fix that in time and we didn't.
    And if it helps - I share your frustration, not sure at all how to save my earnings through the pending times of deleveraging and probably no better means than staying informed.
    Feb 12, 2012. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Being Looted  [View instapost]
    Hi Tom, again an article of yours showing a deep notion for humanity - and commendable as that in this otherwise russian freeze environment.

    Nevertheless I think you over-interprete German actions, when saying we want to achieve now what we didn't achieve with WWII. I'd say, Merkel just wants to put a stop on an otherwise eternal money transfer to Greece, where btw not only Germany would have to pay, but also e.g. Slowenia, where people by no means conceded themselves the kind of (foreign-payed) social welfare that Greece did.

    And even if I follow your conclusion, that the Greece 99% are robbed by their 1%, this can't be changed by EU just going on to pay - it can only be changed by the Greece 99%. And yes, with Germany still being a halfway functioning democracy, Merkel has to think about re-elections - and I don't know too many Germans who like seeing their flag burned and being yelled at as Nazi, just because we don't like to unconditionally and eternally finance an obviously not working business model of another country.

    And while writing, I was long time undecided wrt minimum wages, but from what I heard from those industries here that have it (more than 50% of employees), it works both for employers and employees, since it simply stops the race to the bottom, seemingly w/o the often mentioned effect of job destruction - assuming an apt minimum wage. But since no one nowadays pays for us in EU, we have to find our own equilibrium - and that's where comparison to Greece ends.

    Thanks for reading, Frank
    Feb 11, 2012. 12:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Dividend Opportunities From Germany  [View article]
    Thanks for the article - interesting picks.
    From my German hobbyist view, I like BASF and Linde the most of those mentioned. Linde got ahead of itself and didn't fell as strong as other German stocks, so I still have to wait, BASF was my by large biggest position going into 2009, I sold most of it in April 2011 (pity, my timing isn't always that good...), and I always buy back, if it goes below 44 EUR. BASF as a cyclic company is very volatile, on the other hand it's very well lead - and as safe as it can get; if BASF will get into trouble (not just will have a tanked stock price), whole Germany will be in trouble and then there is no safe haven anyway.
    Jan 15, 2012. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: How Likely Is A Recession?  [View article]
    Oh please, ZH is calling out the end of the world since they opened their side.
    Thanks Jeff for another balanced article and for one of the few voices of reason - might be too optimistic or not, but surely a dampened outcome is more probable than the all doom prognosis we again can read everywhere.
    Sep 25, 2011. 08:49 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovereign Debts and Natural Limit of Growth  [View instapost]
    Very well written and refreshingly open-minded again - so thanks. We either need a quantum triple leap in science or we'll see much less than 7 billion during this live span.
    And count on oil going down quicker, with us having a government in Germany, stupid enough to shut down nuclear because of domestic policy and then buying electricity from Poland running oil power plants...
    Sep 21, 2011. 01:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Geithner's Advice Dismissed in Europe  [View instapost]
    Just wanted to tell you, that you passed your reality test - so thanks for a very balanced and thoughtful article.
    Opinions here were quite adverse to Geithner coming over like the elder brother from the big town and telling us what to do, given latest US "achievements"; but this already seems to be yesterday news - now back to day-to-day debt crisis survival mode.

    One small note: most europeans wouldn't see their politics as socialism, but as social market economy, which goes back to Bismarck, who was not the first to recognize but the first to establish means required to maintain social harmony in a highly industrialized country. Calling this system socialism is calling it names.
    Sep 18, 2011. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Little-Known Stocks With Very High Yields Of Up To 12%  [View article]
    Veolia was already in a downtrend, before the crisis again hit, it announced a major reorg where it will also sell some stakes, and it's heavily indebted. So don't take this high dividend as guaranteed. It might be an interesting turnaround game now, but that's hard to know right now.
    Sep 14, 2011. 07:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Thinking About 9/11, Waiting For Clarity On Europe  [View article]
    Will not exactly count as your news on step 1, but is at least interesting: german news on public TV this evening quite sardonically and very elaborately reported, how we've been told for months that Greece is not allowed to fail and now it seems very well that they can do so. They asked some bank pundits (even from Commerzbank, which is down heavily on the Greece angst), and most of them said, that it might be a hard ride - but is probably a necessary one, underlying all that with a sequence of the promises past.
    An about-face on prime-time of the usually very reserved public tv, things might start moving...
    Sep 12, 2011. 04:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Help Is On The Way (But Maybe Not Soon)  [View article]
    Believing this UBS paper means the same as buying on an analysts advice, who earns his bonus from the investment branch. The UBS has a big urge to create pressure on politicians via opinion and sentiment, since it's there money, that will be lost, if all goes wrong. It would help to search for other opinions on that piece (no, not those on ZH) to get a more balanced picture of reality.
    Sep 10, 2011. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In A Downturn, Ignore The Pundits And Stay Aggressive  [View article]
    Happy that I'm not the only one doing this, and my reasoning was absolutely the same - so thanks for articulating this. Nevertheless I can't say that I sleep well these nights...
    Aug 22, 2011. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Made in Germany: A Review of Payouts of the DAX Index  [View article]
    Hard to comment, where Clemens already did, but I'll add my hobbyist's thoughts anyway:
    * BASF is in fact one of the best run german companies - and was my greatest position going into april 2009. Last week I sold most of it, since my guess is that upside is lower than downside and this debt think can shake the market well. Will be back in once it goes back below 45. Note that Harbrecht stepped down and former CFO is now CEO - nothing bad here, just as announced and planned long ago.
    * For an interesting NYSE listed chemicals stock based in Netherlands with a great turnaround story, check Lyondell Based, which went up even more than BASF. Again I wait here for a larger drop.
    * Also Linde listed above is a very well run company (former BMW CEO). I thought, it would be too extensive at 90, now its nearly 120...
    * No idea on RWE. Price seems fine, but you get a div once a year and if div cut is announced, stock will also drop, so that's probably no stock you can move out quickly. But below 40, it could be worth the risk.
    * Commerzbank is a tough guess. Next share offer might be as low as 1 EUR, most comments I find state that 3 to 3,50 might be an entry point. And don't expect dividends in 2012.
    * Interesting alternative to Munich Re could be Hannover Re, which also just had a huge drop after stating losses from events this year.

    Thanks to Clemens for another great article and good luck to all, Frank
    May 14, 2011. 03:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is the National Bank of Greece Worth the Risk?  [View article]
    There are many well known cons against NBG and this one pro: it's an obvious multi-bagger on a 5-year horizon, if all things work out well.
    The obviously biggest con is, that you can loose all money in NBG. But since a situation that would kill NBG would probably lead to a Lehman-like event with no save positions and huge losses across the board anyway, I take the risk of a small position - eventually going down 50% or 51% doesn't make such a big difference.
    Btw.: you can find sovereign debt exposure of many banks including NBG here:
    May 11, 2011. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Magnificent Seven' Dividend Growth Stocks Overlooked by the Stock Market  [View article]
    Thanks Chuck for another helpful article.
    I always find your graphs more supportive for a stock decision than any other form of fundamental research.
    Issue is, that I'm earning in EUR and current currency fluctuations and long term USD downtrend are somewhat limiting my USD stock hunger - I'm already heavily long JNJ, ABT, PG and lots of oil. But I still didn't found any company similar to those in EUR.
    So I'm currently diversifying in mid-term HY EUR denoted bonds and high-risk stocks both in EUR and USD, where currency risk is the smallest one.
    But for both classes I miss some authoritative source as your charts and the communities discussion on it.
    Thanks again, Frank
    May 8, 2011. 04:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment