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FrankBn

FrankBn
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  • The Great Growth Debate: Dividend Growth Stocks vs. Growth Stocks [View article]
    Without cheating by reading part II, my personal summary (just after a few years, not decades) is, that the tricky part with growth stocks is to find the correct ones - in advance, not in hindsight. It would be a simple mixture of statistics and arithmetic to find out which probability you would need for correct identification of a 15% growth stock in order to beat a e.g. 12 stock d-g basket with a 12 stock growth stock basket.
    Second risk is then, whether you have the stomach for a 200+% increase; I for an example could still kick myself to have sold my SDRL - bought in march 2009.
    Mar 27, 2011. 11:26 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: How Likely Is A Recession? [View article]
    Oh please, ZH is calling out the end of the world since they opened their side.
    Thanks Jeff for another balanced article and for one of the few voices of reason - might be too optimistic or not, but surely a dampened outcome is more probable than the all doom prognosis we again can read everywhere.
    Sep 25, 2011. 08:49 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SeaDrill: Positioned to Prosper [View article]
    Interesting article on an interesting company.

    I bought SDRL in the dark days of early 2008 in Oslo - and sold them way after a nice ride, but still way too early. The heavy debt load made me uneasy, even if John Fredriksen obviously can handle this in his companies. Now I have STO instead, lower gains, better sleep.

    For the german reading investors, some useful information is available here www.wertpapier-forum.d.../ and here www.wertpapier-forum.d.../

    Btw: Happy new Year to all!
    Jan 1, 2011. 04:05 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Magnificent Seven' Dividend Growth Stocks Overlooked by the Stock Market [View article]
    Thanks Chuck for another helpful article.
    I always find your graphs more supportive for a stock decision than any other form of fundamental research.
    Issue is, that I'm earning in EUR and current currency fluctuations and long term USD downtrend are somewhat limiting my USD stock hunger - I'm already heavily long JNJ, ABT, PG and lots of oil. But I still didn't found any company similar to those in EUR.
    So I'm currently diversifying in mid-term HY EUR denoted bonds and high-risk stocks both in EUR and USD, where currency risk is the smallest one.
    But for both classes I miss some authoritative source as your charts and the communities discussion on it.
    Thanks again, Frank
    May 8, 2011. 04:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Germany's Economic Fortress Could Come Toppling Down [View article]
    as another german joining in: the bank leverage to greece/irland is sad but true, while also what Positroll said is true. As always in life, it is not just black and white, so germany did quite well to absorb the industrial wastelands from eastern germany, we did quite well on adjusting to globalization by only moderately increasing working costs during more than one decade, we still do quite well on education - not so sure on healthcare - and industrial production (cars!), but also as an inheritance of the 20th century german plutocracy, we've been sold again by our political class to the banks, so it seems the next decade we'll pay for their greed.
    My father's generation worked 15 hrs less per week and had party all the time - party is over for us since long, but what remains is still better than mostly everywhere else.
    Feb 27, 2011. 05:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Sea Drillers Just Got a Big Boost [View article]
    You really want to pay your hard earned money for HES, where the CEO Hess pays himself more than his shareholders (www.thestreet.com/stor...)? I also held SDRL and have no issues with Fredriksen's salary, who works for 5 to grow his imperium and who shares with his shareholders. There is a clear line between greed and success and I won't step over it.
    Mar 2, 2011. 01:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Schlumberger: Trimming but Staying Long [View article]
    Robert, thanks for your thoughts.
    I have the same "problem" - having bought SLB way below $60 (even with a much cheaper $ for my EUR), making it my 3rd largest position, and now consider every day to sell some or all of it - also having some tax exemptions from other losses.
    If it would be something else, I'd sell it now - but since I take upcoming peak oil for granted and since timing the market is a futile exercise for retail investors, I convince myself to hold it - every day.
    Dec 11, 2010. 05:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Talking Coal With SouthGobi Resources' CEO [View article]
    Hello Jon - while I have you "here", also many thanks to you for your great work; absolutely impressive!
    All the best for you too, Frank
    Apr 2, 2012. 06:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sovereign Debts and Natural Limit of Growth [View instapost]
    Very well written and refreshingly open-minded again - so thanks. We either need a quantum triple leap in science or we'll see much less than 7 billion during this live span.
    And count on oil going down quicker, with us having a government in Germany, stupid enough to shut down nuclear because of domestic policy and then buying electricity from Poland running oil power plants...
    Sep 21, 2011. 01:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Geithner's Advice Dismissed in Europe [View instapost]
    Just wanted to tell you, that you passed your reality test - so thanks for a very balanced and thoughtful article.
    Opinions here were quite adverse to Geithner coming over like the elder brother from the big town and telling us what to do, given latest US "achievements"; but this already seems to be yesterday news - now back to day-to-day debt crisis survival mode.

    One small note: most europeans wouldn't see their politics as socialism, but as social market economy, which goes back to Bismarck, who was not the first to recognize but the first to establish means required to maintain social harmony in a highly industrialized country. Calling this system socialism is calling it names.
    Sep 18, 2011. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Thinking About 9/11, Waiting For Clarity On Europe [View article]
    Will not exactly count as your news on step 1, but is at least interesting: german news on public TV this evening quite sardonically and very elaborately reported, how we've been told for months that Greece is not allowed to fail and now it seems very well that they can do so. They asked some bank pundits (even from Commerzbank, which is down heavily on the Greece angst), and most of them said, that it might be a hard ride - but is probably a necessary one, underlying all that with a sequence of the promises past.
    An about-face on prime-time of the usually very reserved public tv, things might start moving...
    Sep 12, 2011. 04:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Made in Germany: A Review of Payouts of the DAX Index [View article]
    Hard to comment, where Clemens already did, but I'll add my hobbyist's thoughts anyway:
    * BASF is in fact one of the best run german companies - and was my greatest position going into april 2009. Last week I sold most of it, since my guess is that upside is lower than downside and this debt think can shake the market well. Will be back in once it goes back below 45. Note that Harbrecht stepped down and former CFO is now CEO - nothing bad here, just as announced and planned long ago.
    * For an interesting NYSE listed chemicals stock based in Netherlands with a great turnaround story, check Lyondell Based, which went up even more than BASF. Again I wait here for a larger drop.
    * Also Linde listed above is a very well run company (former BMW CEO). I thought, it would be too extensive at 90, now its nearly 120...
    * No idea on RWE. Price seems fine, but you get a div once a year and if div cut is announced, stock will also drop, so that's probably no stock you can move out quickly. But below 40, it could be worth the risk.
    * Commerzbank is a tough guess. Next share offer might be as low as 1 EUR, most comments I find state that 3 to 3,50 might be an entry point. And don't expect dividends in 2012.
    * Interesting alternative to Munich Re could be Hannover Re, which also just had a huge drop after stating losses from events this year.

    Thanks to Clemens for another great article and good luck to all, Frank
    May 14, 2011. 03:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 18 Stocks on the 52 Week Low List Ready to Pop? [View article]
    I was in an out chinese small caps and UEPS for some time, overall loosing a bit. Problem for me is information: I did and do hold e.g. ABT, EXC, NBG, or TCK during troublesome times, but I did have an idea why I bought them and always found enough info to verify that idea for me. Not having this info lead me to loose trust in my small values and sell them - mostly too early. So my lesson is to sometimes still do some contrarian bets, but only on stocks that I could track well information-wise.
    Feb 13, 2011. 10:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Last Drop of Oil: Total S.A. [View article]
    Don't think it's that simple, just compare with RDS, which climbed much more than TOT. TOT is said to have less reserves and for sure global french companies are not loved for the french ethics of work. Anyway my assumption is just the same as yours, so I'm long TOT.
    Feb 5, 2011. 01:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Long Play on SmartHeat [View article]
    Thanks for the article, lot of helpful info.
    I stepped in HEAT and RINO after watching them for 6 month just the week before the RINO accounting scandal - nice timing.
    Whatever the fundamentals tell us about HEAT, this RINO thing will hold it below previous highs for some time.
    Dec 11, 2010. 04:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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