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JRP3

JRP3
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  • Tesla China May Have Already Missed The Boat [View article]
    China seems to be a tough market to break into, other companies have struggled at first as well. This is a minor stumble and Tesla is recovering.
    Apr 1, 2015. 08:33 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla China May Have Already Missed The Boat [View article]
    "First - because there are no other serious markets left on earth where Tesla has a hope of selling enough cars, at a profit, to keep the Tesla dream financed and alive."

    I'd say Korea is a large untapped potential market.
    Apr 1, 2015. 08:31 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla China May Have Already Missed The Boat [View article]
    "There are also apparently a couple of thousand or so Tesla's sitting around in parking lots somewhere in China..."

    Supporting data?
    Apr 1, 2015. 08:29 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 393: Mar. 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    Lithium would be the only rational choice now. LiFePO4 would probably be appropriate, double the specific energy of NiCd.
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 393: Mar. 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    "Li metal can be found in many places, but the commonly used Li-Ion batteries in current use for EVs require lithium salts for the electrolyte. This salt has to come from brines, which are definitely not found everywhere."

    False.
    Lithium can be mined from hard rock pegmatite and hectorite clay http://bit.ly/1bJ4pSf

    "Lithium carbonate is generated by combining lithium peroxide with carbon dioxide."

    http://bit.ly/1bJ4pSh

    The lithium "salt" used in electrolytes is LiPF6

    http://bit.ly/1bJ4pSi

    Mar 30, 2015. 09:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 393: Mar. 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    "It's a no-brainer."

    You might want to use some brain to calculate how high the cost of lithium needs to increase at 4% of cell weight, 2% of pack weight, to over ride the cost reductions happening at the pack level.
    Mar 30, 2015. 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's: Marketing Machine Continues To Deflect Demand Discussion [View article]
    "On #1, I would suggest that this type of R&D will be required ongoing. Tesla is not incurring unusual 'up front' investment that will go away in future periods."

    Future R&D will be on top of what has already been done. They don't need to start from scratch every 2 years or so. The basic platform will remain unchanged for probably 5+ years, and Tesla more than any other auto company has shown they can add features and make improvements through software updates. Look at the Model S, the initial development costs for the majority of the vehicle do not reoccur every 2 years, even though the vehicle keeps improving.
    Mar 30, 2015. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 393: Mar. 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    "And when lithium prices increase, they won't be able to recycle, they'll have to mine faster. I think the projections are damn near useless at this point. The PbC cost, OTOH, could drop dramatically. No mining necessary. Not to ignore the fact that lead is mined as a byproduct of zinc mostly. Remember where the lithium must come from, it's not like it's everywhere. Nationalistic pressures will undoubtedly arise, driving lithium prices up up up."

    Can't believe this type of thinking still exists. First, lithium makes up about 4% of a lithium battery, so prices could go "up up up" and have almost no effect. Second, lithium is in fact everywhere. Right now it's price is so low that it only makes sense to work higher concentration areas. It can also be recycled when the economics make sense. Any thesis for increased lithium battery pricing based on lithium costs is simply flawed.
    Mar 29, 2015. 02:01 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla to unveil Model S software update [View news story]
    Not sure why you think my attempt to correct some of your errors is "rubbing your face in it". I'd like to know the source for your cell counts, because I've seen nothing to support them, and all data I've seen supports my claims. Example: http://bit.ly/SPkf0j

    "85-kWh = 16 modules with 6 groups in series (402 volts, 7104 cells)"
    Mar 29, 2015. 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Axion Power Concentrator 393: Mar. 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    "Switch to the Ultrabattery? Privately source a PbC imitation / copy / knock-off / Licensee? Switch to a Li chemistry?"

    Buying battery packs from Tesla would be the appropriate denouement :-)
    Mar 28, 2015. 02:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla to unveil Model S software update [View news story]
    Obviously time has proven your speculation to be inaccurate, but I do think this needs to be addressed:

    "BTW, technically that pack looks like 90.17 KWh, not 85KWh. These cells can be charged to 4.2V like a 3.7V nominal cell."

    You don't rate a cell, or a pack, using maximum potential voltage. As soon as load is applied voltage drops, so max resting voltage is never delivered, and never a useful measurement for capacity. Nominal voltage is. Additionally, Tesla never allows the cells to hit max voltage since that speeds electrolyte breakdown, and severely shortens cell life.

    Also, your cell count and ah capacity are off. 7104 cells x 3.3ah x 3.7V = 86739 wh. (The cells are actually a bit under 3.3ah)
    Mar 28, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Volkswagen Thinks It Will Undercut Tesla On Battery Cost [View article]
    Sorry Cecil, but your speculation of extra unused capacity about to be unlocked will not happen. It's an 85kWh pack that only allows a maximum of about 80kWh to be used. People who have taken apart the packs and used them for storage have not found any extra capacity in the cells.
    Mar 18, 2015. 11:01 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tesla Is Just Another PayPal [View article]
    Nope. No where near the energy density of the Tesla/Panasonic cells.
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla to unveil Model S software update [View news story]
    "What it actually is: Unlocking what I believe is something in the order of 23KWh of additional capacity that has been on board in safe mode all along. The effect should be to add around 77 miles to the Model S 85Kh range."

    I assume you were joking, but just in case, not a chance. People have taken apart Model S packs and reconfigured the cells. There is no extra capacity to be had beyond the 5 or so kWh that Tesla uses to buffer the high and low end of the pack.
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla to unveil Model S software update [View news story]
    First, since most people don't drive more than 30 miles a day, 110V charging can replace that overnight. But the reality is that most homes have 240V circuits with at least 40 amp capacity, which means a fully drained pack can be charged overnight.
    Mar 18, 2015. 10:25 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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