JRP3's Instablog Forward thinker, tirelessly fighting against misinformation. JRP3 http://seekingalpha.com/user/728544/instablog Garbage In, Garbage Out. Bad Data Leads To Wrong Conclusion About Tesla Battery Pack http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/728544-jrp3/1648701-garbage-in-garbage-out-bad-data-leads-to-wrong-conclusion-about-tesla-battery-pack?source=feed 1648701 In his most recent article John Petersen uses data from this study to come up with the figure of 472 kWh's of energy used to create 1 kWh worth of storage capacity for Tesla's battery pack, or 40,120 kWh's of energy for the entire 85 kWh battery pack. The problem with this conclusion is it ignores a basic premise of the study used, that the lithium battery density of the modeled pack is 75 Wh/kg. We know the Tesla pack cells have a much higher energy density of 250 Wh/kg. Even cutting that almost in half for assembled pack density of 150 Wh/kg it's still twice as good as the 75 Wh/kg used in the study and therefore the energy input to build the pack would also be cut in half, putting it closer to 20,000 kWh's of energy input. Further, almost half of that pack density is support structure, mounting structures, cooling passages, and cooling fluid, all of which take less energy to create than the highly purified battery components.

Bottom line is that Mr. Petersen's conclusions have little to no basis in reality and are therefore completely irrelevant. Unfortunately reality seems to have little effect on Mr. Petersen's consistent anti Tesla bias. When I pointed out the error to Mr. Petersen on the AXPW discussion board his response was that he didn't want to discuss it any further, continuing his practice of burying his head in the sand to avoid facing facts that don't support his preconceptions.

Disclosure: I am long [[TSLA]].

Additional disclosure: Tesla is awesome. Believe it.

]]> Thu, 14 Mar 2013 08:38:59 -0400 In his most recent article John Petersen uses data from this study to come up with the figure of 472 kWh's of energy used to create 1 kWh worth of storage capacity for Tesla's battery pack, or 40,120 kWh's of energy for the entire 85 kWh battery pack. The problem with this conclusion is it ignores a basic premise of the study used, that the lithium battery density of the modeled pack is 75 Wh/kg. We know the Tesla pack cells have a much higher energy density of 250 Wh/kg. Even cutting that almost in half for assembled pack density of 150 Wh/kg it's still twice as good as the 75 Wh/kg used in the study and therefore the energy input to build the pack would also be cut in half, putting it closer to 20,000 kWh's of energy input. Further, almost half of that pack density is support structure, mounting structures, cooling passages, and cooling fluid, all of which take less energy to create than the highly purified battery components.

Bottom line is that Mr. Petersen's conclusions have little to no basis in reality and are therefore completely irrelevant. Unfortunately reality seems to have little effect on Mr. Petersen's consistent anti Tesla bias. When I pointed out the error to Mr. Petersen on the AXPW discussion board his response was that he didn't want to discuss it any further, continuing his practice of burying his head in the sand to avoid facing facts that don't support his preconceptions.

Disclosure: I am long [[TSLA]].

Additional disclosure: Tesla is awesome. Believe it.

]]> tsla Tesla EV battery lithium energy EV's Are Ready For Prime Time http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/728544-jrp3/767151-ev-s-are-ready-for-prime-time?source=feed 767151 As usual John Petersen misses the obvious point in a recent analysis of the potential for electric vehicles. seekingalpha.com/article/674201-oecd-analysis-suggests-that-electric-cars-are-not-ready-for-prime-time

The actual conclusion of the OECD analysis is that subsidies may not be needed at all in some EV applications and that in other EV applications subsidies won't help if the product can't eventually exist on it's own. Rather obvious conclusions, but still missing the point that cost is not the over riding factor in personal vehicle purchases. If it were we'd all be driving the cheapest vehicle available. The fact is that EV's can provide a driving experience so superior to an ICE that they are worth a premium to many, just as many options and luxury ICE vehicles are worth a premium to many. The bonus is that EV's provide lowered operating expenses from a much more diverse and cost stable fuel base. With greater volume and continued technological advances EV's will continue to get cheaper as well.

Petersen also tries to suggest that moving pollution away from population centers will provide no benefit, when clearly it does. He also ignores the potential for dramatic reduction in pollution over all that EV's provide.

Petersen of course takes a pointless shot at [[TSLA]], which is clearly on it's way to a successful launch of it's ground breaking Model S sedan, which I'm quite confident can stand on it's own without subsidies at this point.

The desperation in Petersen's articles and the frequency seems to have increased as the launch of TSLA's Model S comes closer.

Disclosure: I own TSLA and I think EV's are cool.

Disclosure: I am long [[TSLA]].

]]> Thu, 21 Jun 2012 09:25:16 -0400 As usual John Petersen misses the obvious point in a recent analysis of the potential for electric vehicles. seekingalpha.com/article/674201-oecd-analysis-suggests-that-electric-cars-are-not-ready-for-prime-time

The actual conclusion of the OECD analysis is that subsidies may not be needed at all in some EV applications and that in other EV applications subsidies won't help if the product can't eventually exist on it's own. Rather obvious conclusions, but still missing the point that cost is not the over riding factor in personal vehicle purchases. If it were we'd all be driving the cheapest vehicle available. The fact is that EV's can provide a driving experience so superior to an ICE that they are worth a premium to many, just as many options and luxury ICE vehicles are worth a premium to many. The bonus is that EV's provide lowered operating expenses from a much more diverse and cost stable fuel base. With greater volume and continued technological advances EV's will continue to get cheaper as well.

Petersen also tries to suggest that moving pollution away from population centers will provide no benefit, when clearly it does. He also ignores the potential for dramatic reduction in pollution over all that EV's provide.

Petersen of course takes a pointless shot at [[TSLA]], which is clearly on it's way to a successful launch of it's ground breaking Model S sedan, which I'm quite confident can stand on it's own without subsidies at this point.

The desperation in Petersen's articles and the frequency seems to have increased as the launch of TSLA's Model S comes closer.

Disclosure: I own TSLA and I think EV's are cool.

Disclosure: I am long [[TSLA]].

]]> tsla EV's Electric Vehicles Enough resources for One Billion EV's http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/728544-jrp3/188217-enough-resources-for-one-billion-ev-s?source=feed 188217
On the order of 1 billion 40 kWh Li-based EV batteries could be built with the currently estimated reserve base of lithium, according to a recent study by researchers from Lawrence Berkeley National laboratory and the University of California, Berkeley. Lifetime system cost, and other factors, will likely limit scale up more than resource constraints, they found.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/06/albertus-20110617.html
Worth noting that the LEAF pack is 24kWh so you could actually produce even more EV's like the LEAF, but I think one billion EV's should carry us for a while.]]> Sun, 19 Jun 2011 09:50:23 -0400
On the order of 1 billion 40 kWh Li-based EV batteries could be built with the currently estimated reserve base of lithium, according to a recent study by researchers from Lawrence Berkeley National laboratory and the University of California, Berkeley. Lifetime system cost, and other factors, will likely limit scale up more than resource constraints, they found.
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/06/albertus-20110617.html
Worth noting that the LEAF pack is 24kWh so you could actually produce even more EV's like the LEAF, but I think one billion EV's should carry us for a while.]]> EVs batteries lithium resources Why I bought TSLA http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/728544-jrp3/142906-why-i-bought-tsla?source=feed 142906 I've been watching Tesla Motors for a few years, back when the Roadster was only a prototype. I've chatted online with Martin Eberhard and a few other early employees, and I watched with some dismay when many of them were forced out of the company. I've watched as they took less than ideal available components, improved them, and made them into the fastest production electric vehicle ever built. I've watched the company repeatedly do what detractors said couldn't be done. I've watched as major automakers stood up and took notice of what this little company had achieved. I stayed away from the IPO, stayed away when the price came back down after the euphoria, stayed away when it ran back up, and stayed away after it dropped back down after the 6 month lockup ended. I was hoping for a larger pullback but it never materialized. After all this time I can no longer ignore the potential of this company and what I think they are capable of, so I'm in. To me their biggest weakness has been their use of commodity cells to build a pack, yet by using them they've built the least expensive and most energy dense automotive pack on the market, and they will soon be using even better cells. Since the weakest part of their technology has proven successful and it's likely to get even better it's hard not to have a positive outlook on the company. The employees are skilled, passionate, and driven, as is Elon Musk. While I did not like his handling of the restructuring of the company and some of his design decisions I can't say that he was necessarily wrong. He obviously has what it takes to make innovative companies successful and I think betting against him is a mistake. The Model S sedan design is progressing well and looks to be as ground breaking in the performance sedan market as the Roadster was in the sports car market. Recent agreements with Panasonic should give them good pricing on improved cells. Partnering with Toxco and Umicore will provide a comprehensive recycling program for their battery packs when needed.
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/teslas-closed-loop-battery-recycling-program
They continue to advance motor and controller design, battery technology, and vehicle design and construction. While some concern has been raised about rare earth magnets their motor doesn't use them. At 70lbs, 250hp, and almost 300 ft/lbs of torque they have the best power to weight ratio of any production EV motor. Their methods and results are actually influencing established automakers such as Toyota, who has partnered with Tesla for their RAV4EV program.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/automotive/sc-cons-0127-trans-20110127-17,0,4078052.story
Tesla doesn't want to just build EV's, they want to build desirable vehicles that also happen to be EV's. Unlike most companies who try to keep costs as low as possible and target the general buying public Tesla has chosen to build vehicles without compromises that take full advantage of the benefits of their electric drive trains. A common complaint against Tesla is the average person can't afford their vehicles, which is true, for now. However, does BMW, Porsche, or Ferrari get hit with similar criticisms? Sure we all wish we could afford such vehicles but we don't argue that they should lower their quality or performance to achieve lower costs. Tesla creates products that compete directly with high end vehicles while also offering oil free transportation. They think, and I agree, that there is a strong and growing market for such products. The larger volume of the Model S production building on their experiences with the Roadster production will help them lower costs and move them towards profitability.
EV's are coming.  Tesla has led the way with the first real production EV in the 21st century, and I don't see them losing that lead any time soon. They won't lead in volume but they will lead in technology that other auto manufacturers want and in producing vehicles that people want. Going forward I don't see anything stopping them.
]]> Tue, 01 Mar 2011 09:10:29 -0500 I've been watching Tesla Motors for a few years, back when the Roadster was only a prototype. I've chatted online with Martin Eberhard and a few other early employees, and I watched with some dismay when many of them were forced out of the company. I've watched as they took less than ideal available components, improved them, and made them into the fastest production electric vehicle ever built. I've watched the company repeatedly do what detractors said couldn't be done. I've watched as major automakers stood up and took notice of what this little company had achieved. I stayed away from the IPO, stayed away when the price came back down after the euphoria, stayed away when it ran back up, and stayed away after it dropped back down after the 6 month lockup ended. I was hoping for a larger pullback but it never materialized. After all this time I can no longer ignore the potential of this company and what I think they are capable of, so I'm in. To me their biggest weakness has been their use of commodity cells to build a pack, yet by using them they've built the least expensive and most energy dense automotive pack on the market, and they will soon be using even better cells. Since the weakest part of their technology has proven successful and it's likely to get even better it's hard not to have a positive outlook on the company. The employees are skilled, passionate, and driven, as is Elon Musk. While I did not like his handling of the restructuring of the company and some of his design decisions I can't say that he was necessarily wrong. He obviously has what it takes to make innovative companies successful and I think betting against him is a mistake. The Model S sedan design is progressing well and looks to be as ground breaking in the performance sedan market as the Roadster was in the sports car market. Recent agreements with Panasonic should give them good pricing on improved cells. Partnering with Toxco and Umicore will provide a comprehensive recycling program for their battery packs when needed.
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/teslas-closed-loop-battery-recycling-program
They continue to advance motor and controller design, battery technology, and vehicle design and construction. While some concern has been raised about rare earth magnets their motor doesn't use them. At 70lbs, 250hp, and almost 300 ft/lbs of torque they have the best power to weight ratio of any production EV motor. Their methods and results are actually influencing established automakers such as Toyota, who has partnered with Tesla for their RAV4EV program.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/automotive/sc-cons-0127-trans-20110127-17,0,4078052.story
Tesla doesn't want to just build EV's, they want to build desirable vehicles that also happen to be EV's. Unlike most companies who try to keep costs as low as possible and target the general buying public Tesla has chosen to build vehicles without compromises that take full advantage of the benefits of their electric drive trains. A common complaint against Tesla is the average person can't afford their vehicles, which is true, for now. However, does BMW, Porsche, or Ferrari get hit with similar criticisms? Sure we all wish we could afford such vehicles but we don't argue that they should lower their quality or performance to achieve lower costs. Tesla creates products that compete directly with high end vehicles while also offering oil free transportation. They think, and I agree, that there is a strong and growing market for such products. The larger volume of the Model S production building on their experiences with the Roadster production will help them lower costs and move them towards profitability.
EV's are coming.  Tesla has led the way with the first real production EV in the 21st century, and I don't see them losing that lead any time soon. They won't lead in volume but they will lead in technology that other auto manufacturers want and in producing vehicles that people want. Going forward I don't see anything stopping them.
]]> tsla EV Electric vehicles Tesla