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chowder

chowder
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ABT, AFL, APD, ARLP, AT, BDT, BF.B, BMO, BP, BRK.A, BRK.B, C, CBRL, CINF, CL, COP, CTL, CVX, D, DE, DRI, ENB, EPD, EXC, FSP, FTR, GD, GE, GIS, GPC, HCBK, HCN, HGIC, INTC, JNJ, KMB, KMI, KMP, KO, KRFT, LEG, LINE, LNCO, LO, MAA, MCD, MDLZ, MDT, MHR, MKC, MMP, MO, NFLX, NLY, NNN, O, OHI, PBI, PEP, PG, PM, PNY, PSX, RIG, RY, SBSI, SDRL, SDY, SNY, SO, SPY, SYY, T, TE, TGT, TIP, TOT, TUP, UHT, UNP, UNS, UTX, VIG, VVC, VZ, WAG, WEC, WM, WMT, WU, XLU, XOM
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  • My KISS Dividend Portfolio: 1st Quarter 2014 Update [View article]
    >>> By the way, I won't be paying into reading Fast Graphs. My reading time will go towards conference calls and whether I continue to like winning business models. How simple can that be? <<<

    The amount of time it takes you to gather your information is why you can't monitor a portfolio with a large number of positions.

    F.A.S.T. Graphs isn't some magical tool that picks stock winners. It's a magical tool that brings all of the fundamental information to you on one easy to read page and then provides a visual graph for you to judge the trend.

    When you pull up a price chart for LMT, you can see how price has moved over the time frame you pull up on a chart. You can see in seconds where price is in relation to it's historical performance.

    With F.A.S.T. I not only get the numbers, I get a picture of what I'm looking at. I can actually see a valuation chart, just as I can see a price chart. I can see where valuation is with regard to past performance. I can pull up a page that shows 20 years of data all in one spot.

    I don't only get EPS history and dividend history, but I can pull up charts for many of the financial data you may look at in doing your due diligence.

    Some people like using spread sheets. All of the information is laid out for you. F.A.S.T. takes it a step further. It provides a visual chart of what you are looking at.

    Just as you can pull up a visual chart of price movement, I can pull up a visual chart for PE and interest rates, and Sales and Price to Sales. I can pull up visual historical charts, over 20 years, for ROE and ROI. ... Whoa! A chart for ROE and ROI just like a price chart? ... Okay, I can dig this.

    From the balance sheet I can pull up a visual chart for assets per share, cash and equivalents per share, common equity or book value per share, debt long-term per share, debt per share, and invested capital per share.

    From the Cash Flow Statement I can pull up adjusted funds from operations per share, adjusted funds from operations per share, capital expenditures per share, cash flow per share, dividends declared per share, dividends paid per share, funds from operations per share, levered free cash flow per share and operating cash flow per share.

    From the Income Statement I can pull up basic earnings per share, cost of goods sold per share, depreciation and amortization per share, diluted earnings per share, net income excluding extraordinary items available for common per share, normalized basic earnings per share, normalized diluted earnings per share, operating earnings per share and revenue per share.

    And if you don't like the estimated earnings numbers and the charts that pop up with those numbers, then override it and put your own numbers in. ... Whoa!!! How cool is that?

    I can pull up visual charts of gross profit margin and net profit margin.

    Not only do I get a visual chart of these metrics, similar to a price chart, I get the percentage of change for each year as well.

    I'm getting tired of typing. I've only covered half the metrics available that you can pull up 20 years of information on and have it presented in visual form.

    Information that would take hours to gather takes moments with F.A.S.T. Graphs and it cost less than a round of golf, which you'll have plenty of time for when all of the tedious research is taken away from you. ... Ha!

    Now here's the tricky part.

    You still have to do the thinking. F.A.S.T. brings you the information. It's up to you to decide what to do with it, if anything.

    I used to think Value Line was top of the table for information gathering. It doesn't come close to F.A.S.T. and I've subscribed to both. F.A.S.T. is less expensive and provides way more information.

    What was it Gordon Ghecko said? ... Information is the most valuable asset one can have, or something like that?

    Nothing provides as much information, in easy to read form, on a moment's notice, that I'm aware of than F.A.S.T. Graphs.
    Apr 19 04:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My KISS Dividend Portfolio: 1st Quarter 2014 Update [View article]
    >>> Of course we can't know how they would match what actually would have happened if I had my portfolio during that whole 15 year period. <<<

    That's why I don't back-test strategies. Nobody invests the way the computer model does. The test doesn't take human emotion into consideration. People are going to react to the market. The ability to control emotion, or the lack thereof, will determine how one fares.

    Over the past 21 years, the S&P 500 has produced an annual return of 8.5%. Now think about that! ... 8.5%.

    Yet, most people haven't been able to beat that number, including professional money managers.

    Almost any strategy, given time, should be able to outproduce an 8.5% annual return. In order to do it though, one must learn to control their emotions, let their portfolio stay put, and allow it the time it needs to do what it is it was designed to do.

    In order to allow a portfolio to stay put, as opposed to reacting to it, if one focuses on high quality companies, with a history of overcoming adversity, and it's the type of company you don't have to keep an eagle eye on, then it makes it easier to stay put and focus on other things than share price.

    I focus on the dividend, the dividend growth and the fundamentals of the company. I don't react to news or share price volatility.

    I'll look at historical performance to see how a company performed during the last couple of recessions, but I don't back-test because I don't invest that way. New money is constantly hitting the accounts and being invested.

    From my perspective, PTI's portfolio is a much better choice than VASVX, even if VASVX outperforms by a percentage or two because during the distribution phase, PTI can draw the dividends to live on and not touch the principal. We can't do that with VASVX.

    From my perspective, and others have to set their own goals, an asset is only as good as the amount of income it produces. I'm looking at long-term income production. My portfolio is going to generate a lot more income than any ETF or Mutual Fund can provide, and since Income Replacement is the reason I invest, it's the income I focus on ... both the safety of it and the growth of it.
    Apr 19 03:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Real Dividend Growth Machine: Q1 2014 Review [View article]
    Don, that's an interesting perspective. Would you kindly share the companies you do own? Thanks.
    Apr 19 02:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Reinvestment - Yes Or No? [View instapost]
    Hello Ken,

    I'm assuming you are talking about MMP, not MMR.

    When you have a stock split, you also have a dividend split. In other words, if you own 100 shares of something paying a dividend of $1.00 and they split 2 for 1, you now have 200 shares with a dividend of 50 cents.
    Apr 19 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • April Showers Bring... Dividend Growth, Joy And Fun! [View article]
    No question WEC is way overvalued. It's the Buffett effect. Word is that BRK is looking to purchase another utility which has helped raise the price of WEC, LNT and AVA, candidates according to utility analysts.

    D has the highest valuation of any utility company due to its spinning off of an MLP unit later this year.

    Then you have to add in the LNG facility valuation for D and SRE.

    The only utility I own even close to fair value, and it's still overvalued, is XEL. They have rate increase requests pending in Minnesota and Colorado. If they come through, price will head higher, If not, then we'll see a correction.

    My guess is that anything worth buying is going to have to correct from here. Perhaps the "sell in May" phenomenon will help out.
    Apr 18 05:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Showers Bring... Dividend Growth, Joy And Fun! [View article]
    Scott, when I look into what a company does, I consider their client base. KO sells in every country in the world. Now that's a client base!

    When I purchased my first REIT, which was O, I was looking at their client base. They owned properties in 48 states. Others I looked at only had properties in small coverage areas. Various parts of the country have various economic climates and I wanted to get that diversification.

    When I looked at MLP's I pulled up maps of where their pipes went. I was looking to cover most of the country and not duplicate the same states with different companies.

    I look at railroads the same way. I want an east and west coast line, not two in the same region.

    So that's the approach I used with utilities. SO only covers the SE. D the Mid-Atlantic, etc. I wanted national exposure and that led to 8 utes.
    Apr 18 05:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • April Showers Bring... Dividend Growth, Joy And Fun! [View article]
    Buy AVA now? No way!

    I don't know what your price target was for AVA and I don't know how close it got to it.

    I don't need exact to make a purchase, just get me close enough and I'm happy. I missed too many great opportunities early in my career by waiting for the perfect entry.
    Apr 18 05:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My KISS Dividend Portfolio: 1st Quarter 2014 Update [View article]
    I have been kicking around an idea for a selling guideline. I subscribe to F.A.S.T. Graphs and Chuck tells us that it's a tool to think with, so I've been thinking.

    F.A.S.T. not only shows PE but it shows historical PE. Although some companies usually sell at a premium, KO, PG and ADP for example, there are times I'm assuming when it's too much of a premium.

    F.A.S.T. has a feature where if PE is outside all forecast valuation lines, the PE shows up in red as opposed to black.

    If nobody is willing to raise valuations, maybe some trimming is in order.

    Pull up a chart of ADP and COST and you'll see what I mean. Pull up KO and PG and although they are selling at a premium, they are within historical levels and some believe they can go higher. They are within forecast valuation lines, ADP and COST aren't.

    Still mulling this one over and I offer it for food for thought.
    Apr 18 05:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Real Dividend Growth Machine: Q1 2014 Review [View article]
    If you're green you're growing! ... If you're ripe you're rotten!
    Apr 18 05:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • April Showers Bring... Dividend Growth, Joy And Fun! [View article]
    kolpin, the utes continue to amaze me. Although they corrected a little in the latter part of the year, they still finished up strong and have continued forward this year.

    I own 8 different utilities spread around the country, so I think I have a good representation of the utility sector.

    I own ... AVA, D, LNT, PNY, SO, SRE, WEC and XEL.

    Last year I owned UNS but it was bought out by Fortis and I replaced UNS with XEL for this year.

    My 8 utes last year, on price appreciation alone finished up 19.15%. When you add in dividends, the number is between 22 and 23 percent on the year.

    This may not sound impressive since the S&P had a great year last year, but we're talking utes here!

    My 8 utes for 2014 are up 10.22% on share price alone. SPY is up 0.92% in 2014. My utes are killing it.

    If we use the last 16 months to compare my utes vs the market, instead of the calendar year 12 months in 2013, my utes are at par for market performance on share price alone, at a time when the market has performed its best in decades.

    If you count dividends, over the last 16 months my utes have outperformed the market in total return and I was told a couple of years ago here on SA that utes were overvalued, and I said they were going to stay overvalued. Follow the money.

    Utes anyone?
    Apr 18 04:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April Showers Bring... Dividend Growth, Joy And Fun! [View article]
    Mike! ... First LMT, now AVA? ... Tsk! Tsk!
    Apr 18 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Constructing And Designing The Stock Portfolio That's Just Right For You: Part 1 [View article]
    When I was a swing trader, I used to short companies.

    I didn't like shorting the low beta, large cap, dividend payers though. Price movement is too slow, it takes too much volume for price to go in either direction, and I would be responsible for the dividend so that was an added expense.

    I preferred the high beta, fast moving companies where I could get in and out over a 3-5 day swing period with a decent profit.

    I don't know how to utilize options, so perhaps someone who does can respond. In my limited knowledge of options, I'm assuming a better strategy with large cap, dividend paying companies would be to do whatever option it is that allows you to make money on the downside. Is it a "put?" Some kind of Put perhaps.
    Apr 18 03:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My KISS Dividend Portfolio: 1st Quarter 2014 Update [View article]
    @moatfrog ... Most of the advice you provide is good advice. In fact, we think alike in most of what you just said.

    As to monitoring a large number of positions, I find that it isn't time consuming based on how I manage my portfolio.

    My quote tracker is on and running at all times on one of my monitors. Every position we own, in every portfolio I manage, plus every company on our watchlist is listed on the quote tracker.

    I can tell you within 5 seconds if anything needs my immediate attention. I look for any company that has a 3% or more increase or decrease in the day's price. Anything at 3% or more is usually news related. I will then check out the news.

    I don't bother looking into anything whose price doesn't move more than 3% in either direction in a day. As far as I'm concerned, everything else is simply market noise and I ignore it.

    I can read every single article that comes along on my holdings, listen to the conference calls, read every research report, and think I know my companies as well as I know anything and I'll still wake up to see the market has punished one of my companies and I wasn't able to detect anything in advance.

    My research efforts go into the company to determine if I want to own it or not. After that, I only check the earnings reports. I monitor the dividend announcements. I have a web site that notifies me when they are announced. Easy peasy.

    Since I only buy high quality companies, they have a slew of analysts that follow those companies. They have the resources to go over every piece of material information a company has to offer. They know how to read the financial reports. These analysts are very competitive. They want to be the first to let the world know when changes come into play. I let these analysts do my monitoring for me.

    When KMP came into question about some of their accounting practices, my e-mail box was littered by companies and web sites reporting on what they found. Numerous articles here on SA showed up immediately and continue to show up. All of this work was brought to my door step. All I had to do was fetch a cold one and review what these wonderful analysts found and thought. Easy peasy.

    I'm not going to find a smoking gun on PG, KO, MCD, CVX and many other fine companies before the analysts do. So I don' try.

    When my quote tracker signals a significant move in price , 3% or more in a day, then I go check it out.

    It isn't difficult to monitor a lot of large cap companies. If I were buying small cap companies, that's different. An MHR doesn't have the army of researchers that XOM does. In that case I have to rely on me and what little information I can find on them.
    Apr 18 02:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My KISS Dividend Portfolio: 1st Quarter 2014 Update [View article]
    @Rawnoctheidiot ... >>> A 7.75% return annually is required to hit his goal. Set your goal low, and ignore the rest. <<<

    As I mentioned in my previous comment, an 8.25% return annually is the objective I achieve.

    I don't know if you realize this or not, based on your comment, I'm going to assume you don't. Over the last 21 years, including dividends, the S&P 500 Index has provided an 8.5% annual return. ... 8.5%

    For those of you who have F.A.S.T.Graphs, punch in the ticker ... ^spx.

    This is the annual return that most money managers can't beat, and the return most people in the comment stream who were talking about comparing to a benchmark, compare their results to.

    My goal is 8.25% to achieve my objective. I think my expected return is in line with the market.

    Institutional investors and professional money managers are judged on their RISK ADJUSTED return. They are willing to accept a percentage point or two in return if they can minimize the amount of risk they have to take to earn that return.

    The S&P 500 has a beta of 1.00. Project $3 Million has an average beta of .59 and if I knew how to determine a weighted beta, it would be lower because my higher beta companies represent smaller positions within the portfolio.

    So, on a RISK ADJUSTED basis, my expected return is better than that of the benchmark everyone is so keen on comparing their results to.

    The S&P 500 has a yield of 1.8%. Project $3 Million has a yield of 3.7%.

    The S&P 500 over a 21 year period has shown 6% annual growth in the dividend. Project $3 Million is currently showing dividend growth at 8.3%.

    So my goals are in line with the market, but are better than the market on a RISK ADJUSTED basis, Project $3 Million is yielding 105.5% more than the S&P 500, and Project $3 Million's dividend growth is 38.3% higher than the S&P 500.

    And yeah, I'm ahead of schedule.

    But hey, according to you the goals are set too low. Yet, that's the benchmark everyone wants to beat, and most can't.

    Forget the S&P 500 comparisons. Just try keeping up with me. You'll generate more income than you expected and you'll still outperform the market over the long run. ... Ha!
    Apr 18 08:23 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My KISS Dividend Portfolio: 1st Quarter 2014 Update [View article]
    The goal to achieve the $3 Million, in the time frame allowable is 8.25% return annually, not 7.75%.

    BTW, do you know what the compounded annual growth rate for the S&P 500 has been for the last 40 years?

    I was delighted that an 8.25% growth rate is all that was needed. That meant I could get the portfolio off to a fast start while staying very conservative.

    Isn't it true that we shouldn't invest money we can't afford to lose?

    If the owner of this portfolio were to lose his job and needed to count on the amount of income his assets create, he couldn't do it at this time. So in my opinion, he can't afford to play games and lose money.

    When his portfolio is generating enough income for him to live off of, in the event of some emergency, then it is at that time when he can afford to speculate a little more, and I'm sure he will.

    You seem to be pretty flippant with other's people money, but I take it seriously. I have people counting on me to advise them to the point of financial independence. If you have been paying attention, a lot of people here have fired their financial advisers because they weren't looking out for the client's best interest.

    This isn't a game to me to determine whose stick is bigger. I'm going to see to it that this young man becomes a multi-millionaire and we're going to be conservative in the process to get him established.
    Apr 17 07:29 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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