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tradebr2010

tradebr2010
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  • Cosan Ltd.: My Best Idea For 2015 [View article]

    If the R$ keeps dropping, and I think it will to the R$4 level from about R$3.60 this week, we're still looking at 11% down.
    I'm still on a wait and see where the currency stabilizes to get my shopping list ready. I'm also aiming to either $BBD and $ITUB, two solid banks.
    Aug 30, 2015. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil Is In A Recession [View article]
    What else is new?!! The real is 60% down against the US$D...
    Aug 29, 2015. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yesterday's Trade Ideas Are Up $18,400 - Today It's 3% Index Gains Or Bust!  [View instapost]
    Right on the money Phil. The establishment wants to control everyone!
    Aug 25, 2015. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    That in the options world could translate to 500%+
    Aug 24, 2015. 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Tuesday May Open With Another Flash Crash [View article]
    Do you sell crystal balls? I'm balanced long/short, but have no expectations...
    Aug 24, 2015. 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baristas told to be nice with Starbucks -5% [View news story]
    Hopefully, you sold and sell covered calls on your underwater stocks so you could breathe better!
    Aug 24, 2015. 04:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • This Dividend Stock Yields Over 12%, Has 70% Cash Flow Growth, And Will Raise Its Next Dividend [View article]
    The stock is thinly traded(<100K daily), I'd be surprised if options were attractive.
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Dividend Stock Yields Over 12%, Has 70% Cash Flow Growth, And Will Raise Its Next Dividend [View article]
    Cold beer and fried sardines...Desserts both from Spain and Portugal are delicious.
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Market Plunge Is Irrational - And What To Buy Now [View article]

    I think collapse is a very harsh definition. I'd think more of a "slowdown" in GDP growth in China that "was" expected to grow 8/9% yearly a few years ago. China could now expect to grow 4/5%(or less), which is a great growth rate for the U.S. and Europe but not for emerging economies and China.

    Both the U.S. and Europe utilized liquidity and credit to get out of the 2008 crisis. QE injection in our economy basically propelled the stock market higher, and ahead of earnings and forecast. It's just "normal" for a pull back to adjust the market to the harsh economic reality both in the U.S. and around the world.
    I think the stock market still have another leg down to complete the 10% pull back expected by a lot of people and institutions. It's not the collapse of China or other economies. I think as a reality check for everyone. And yes, it's a long term buying opportunity to shop around for good businesses(the basics of fundamental analysis).
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Market Plunge Is Irrational - And What To Buy Now [View article]
    If you have a portfolio of great companies like $DIS and $AAPL it's a great opportunity to add to for the long term.
    One strategy that I deploy is to sell covered calls to increase returns on any stock holdings.
    I also only buy stock by selling naked puts, but this is a strategy that one need to really know how to trade options to do it. It gives me a significant discount from current stock pricing, or I just keep the premium as a profit.
    Aug 22, 2015. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Market Plunge Is Irrational - And What To Buy Now [View article]

    Well, if you look at macroeconomics within 2/3 days framework, I'd have to agree with you.
    However, the growth in China's stock market never followed their growth in GDP. In the contrary, China has been slowing their growth for the past 2/3 years and the market kept going higher artificially. It became a catalyst to our market, where valuations were and are still ahead of actual growth, and more important future growth forecast.
    It's impossible to make fundamental analysis into actionable trades in the short term. I still have not been able to find someone who could sell me this type of crystal ball!
    You can certainly see the amount of serious articles here in SA on the S&P, China, global slowdown, etc.
    On Thursday, a trader bought $12M in VIX September premium, and yesterday he was up 282%. I've been following these $VIX trades since the mini crash in Feb 2014, where a trader made $40M in profits.
    In conclusion, there are a few people who do have an insight on what's going on momentum wise in the market. Economics, or simple supply/demand is the market itself in the long term!
    Aug 22, 2015. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    The "China Syndrome" right on the money! I think we still have another leg down on the S&P to the 1,650/1,800 level before we see another holidays rally.
    Aug 22, 2015. 09:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Market Plunge Is Irrational - And What To Buy Now [View article]
    I like $DIS too but there's nothing irrational about supply and demand! You invest and trade what you're given.
    Aug 21, 2015. 06:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 47% Upside To Pinnacle [View article]
    You can always use put options to short the stock limiting your risk.
    Aug 21, 2015. 07:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 47% Upside To Pinnacle [View article]
    Chris,

    Excellent work as usual. I think if the company has been growing 16% for the past 5 years, your 47% premium assessment is very fair.

    This is an interesting way casinos learned to make their business grow without the weight of real estate investments on their FCF. I believe, this is the same way Ed Lampert was trying to do with Sears. Obviously, on a different situation!

    You're one of the few in SA who does valuations the right way, based upon discounted FCF there is! I always value your work.Thank you.

    Marco
    Aug 20, 2015. 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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