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DumpsterDiver

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  • How Far The Gold Sell-Off Could Go, And Strategies That'll Save You [View article]
    Recusant,

    At the risk of being That Nerd, what you've described would be a terrible strategy in roulette, at least. Double zeros are NEVER "overdue" in that context, no matter how many times the wheel has been spun without hitting one prior to that point. The probability of hitting a double zero on the next spin is always exactly the same for every spin (assuming a fair, well-balanced roulette wheel, anyway). It's the epitome of "past performance does not predict future results."

    Granted, there are no GOOD strategies for playing roulette at all (in the sense of them being likely to do anything but lose you money over extended time periods); the different kinds of possible bets you can make vary only in the rapidity with which they will deplete your capital over time. So from that standpoint, betting on an "overdue" double zero is no worse than betting on any other single number on any given spin for any reason whatsoever.

    Also granted, none of this necessarily applies in the least to gold and/or inflation anyway, since those are realms where human psychology and countless other weighting factors can and do skew the outcomes, unlike the random purity of the roulette wheel. But hey, it wasn't my analogy. :)
    Apr 17 01:04 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is One Of The Many Catalysts That Could Propel GT To New Highs [View article]
    A change in the bullish macro environment won't affect Apple's product roadmap in the least (although it might affect production volumes). Nor, I think, would it have much effect on future demand for solar and LEDs. If the market tanks in the near future, GTAT's share price will undoubtedly tank along with it for a while, but so what? If the company grows its revenues and profits over time -- and there's currently little reason to believe it won't -- the share price will catch up sooner or later.

    People severely overestimate the "risk" of short-term paper losses. I'd love to see a single-digit stock price again; it'd mean that my next monthly buy would net me about twice as many shares as my previous one did. When a company is growing into the kind of powerhouse that GTAT seems poised to become, owning more shares of it is a very good thing.

    Agree that it was attractively priced a year ago at $4. Disagree that it's unattractively priced now. A whole lot of things are known now that weren't known a year ago.
    Apr 6 07:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is One Of The Many Catalysts That Could Propel GT To New Highs [View article]
    It's entirely possible, and it doesn't really matter. GT is making sapphire today and Apple is paying for it today. (Or more accurately, Apple already paid for the first half-billion dollars' worth and GT is drawing down that advance today. Works out to the same thing in the end.) Where they use it won't change the fact that they're buying it.

    Yes, if the 2014 iPhone is revealed and it doesn't have a sapphire screen, GTAT stock will take a major short-term hit. If that happens, buy like there's no tomorrow. Because there WILL still be a tomorrow, the stock will still be worth much more when the day comes, and you can own that many more shares of it if you're able to buy them while they're temporarily cheap.

    But since the components of this year's iPhone are currently unknowable (barring any leaks from reliable sources), a "buy some now, buy more later if the price does plunge" strategy might be the most appropriate way to manage this.
    Apr 6 07:16 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is One Of The Many Catalysts That Could Propel GT To New Highs [View article]
    I'm far from the first to say it, but know why you bought your stock and be guided by that rather than by the day-to-day noise of the marketplace. If you bought it because of where you expect the price to be a year or two from now, then what it does a day or two from now is irrelevant. If you bought it hoping for a quick flip, then a short-term price drop may be a serious concern.

    If you don't know why you bought it and are simply reacting to whatever the marketplace does, then you're probably going to lose your money in any case, so you might as well do it now, I suppose. :)

    But really, my advice to anyone who currently owns GTAT shares would be: Just hold onto them for a while. No matter what price you bought them at -- even if you bought them at the current all-time high -- you have bought at value, and in the long run, value will out. Don't watch what the stock does; watch what the company does. All current evidence says it's growing and succeeding. In time, the stock will follow.

    While you wait, it may help to look at the share price as a potential BUYING price rather than a potential selling price. When you have a buyer's mindset, lower prices are better and provide opportunities to amplify your future gains. It's only when your finger is hovering on the Sell button that price drops become scary events.
    Apr 6 06:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperion: A Game-Changer For GT Advanced Technologies? [View article]
    GTAT's investor conference & new-product unveilings from March 14 contained numerous answers to the question of how they can thrive in ways that have nothing to do with Apple. (If you don't have time to sit all the way through it, the slide deck alone shows clearly where a great deal of non-Apple money is expected to come from.)

    Their recently-announced $300 million solar contract is another revenue source that's wholly independent of Apple (although it's subject to contingencies and can't quite be treated as money in the bank yet).

    It's true, there are many other engineering companies out there, but if you know of one whose PRODUCTS -- not research projects, but actual products -- are comparable to GTAT's in terms of sales potential, industry-altering impact and "moat," please let me know, because I want to invest in that company, too.

    The expansion stage is certainly a risky time for any company: Fixed costs rise immediately, with the expectation/hope that sufficient revenues will come in down the line to cover them. At some point, it comes down to a bet on management -- on their ability to project future revenues accurately, and their ability to execute. GT's management has a good track record on those fronts so far.

    Your question isn't unreasonable, but most of the answers are already available, I think. Not necessarily on SA in every case, but they're out there. As for why more isn't written about GTAT's financial state, I suspect it's because it's the least interesting aspect of the company at the moment. Any way you slice it, they're going to be swimming in money for the next couple of years. They will have no trouble obtaining the cash to propel them through the growth stage. Questions about establishing a long-term-sustainable business structure will certainly arise at some point after that, but growth is the name of the game right now, and they've outlined a pretty clear path to achieving it (and paying for it).
    Apr 4 05:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperion: A Game-Changer For GT Advanced Technologies? [View article]
    poomk: Then, too. :)

    I actually did make my initial buy at $3.15 last year, but unfortunately the light bulb didn't really go off for me regarding sapphire's immediate potential until the Apple announcement. Have bought heavily since then at every level from the $7s to the $18s. I don't think I'm going to regret any of those purchases down the road; I suspect even my highest-priced lot to date will probably net me a triple if I'm patient.

    Still very much a buyer at today's prices. Party's just getting started in my opinion...
    Apr 3 02:52 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hyperion: A Game-Changer For GT Advanced Technologies? [View article]
    Absolutely. Don't sweat the pennies on this one. Even the current highs are going to look low a year or two from now. (Possibly much sooner.)
    Apr 2 04:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning's Gorilla Glass Is Optically Superior To Sapphire [View article]
    Reminds me more of when Microsoft suddenly started putting out ads attacking Chromebooks. People wondered why they bothered; they were a dominant company going after a seemingly marginal competitive product. Then it gradually became apparent why...

    (I read today that Chromebooks now make up 21% of laptop sales.)
    Mar 15 03:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Is There More To It Than Just Apple? [View article]
    After today's presentations, I double down on my above comment in the most strenuous possible terms. This company is the real deal. They're going to be a powerhouse in at least two industries and a strong competitor in others. And most of that isn't priced into the stock yet.

    I predict a spate of analyst upgrades and higher price targets over the next week. Moreover, this is going to be the exceedingly rare occasion where I actually agree with them. The answer to the question posed in the headline of this article is a resounding yes. Buy some; you'll be glad you did. I sure am.
    Mar 14 01:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning's Gorilla Glass Is Optically Superior To Sapphire [View article]
    For the record, the small market cap of GTAT also attracts quite a few of us who expect the price to multiply based on actual data. This-or-that logic needn't apply in that venue either...
    Mar 12 04:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning's Gorilla Glass Is Optically Superior To Sapphire [View article]
    Moral of the story: When debating factual assertions, counter with additional facts rather than bitching about motives. That way, you actually make a point.
    Mar 12 04:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning's Gorilla Glass Is Optically Superior To Sapphire [View article]
    Clark, math and physics are generally apolitical. Applying them to any situation and noting what outcome the math predicts is not "bashing" the outcome that the math didn't predict; it's simply being intellectually honest. Truth and the nature of physical reality don't change based on the contents of your investment portfolio. Grow up.

    (For the record, the contents of my investment portfolio are more than 50% GTAT, and no Corning. In fact, I sold my GLW last year so I could buy more GTAT. Neither of those facts about my personal investments alters the way light behaves when it crosses material boundaries. See how this works?)

    I would actually suggest focusing on the second-to-last paragraph of the article rather than the last one, since it turns out that math and science also offer a solution -- albeit one that the author has incorrectly written off as unworkable -- to the reflection problem that math and science have (correctly) predicted:

    "If the sapphire itself could be manufactured to a thinness of a few microns (not yet possible), then it could be its own anti-reflective coating. However, it is doubtful that a sapphire layer a few microns thick would retain much durability."

    GTAT's Hyperion technology is directly applicable to the first point: exfoliating layers of material a few microns thick is exactly what it's for.

    Apple's research and patents around sapphire laminates are directly applicable to the second point: the thin sapphire layer doesn't need to retain much "durability" because the glass it's bonded to will provide that. It just needs to retain its scratch-proof qualities. Voila, a sapphire screen cover that's both anti-scratch and anti-reflective. Problem solved.
    Mar 12 04:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Is There More To It Than Just Apple? [View article]
    I actually find it pretty easy to imagine all their technology bearing fruit. Fruits of varying sizes, I grant you, but on the whole, they've done quite an excellent job of achieving that "synergy" thing that execs like to talk about, and in a way that's not just the empty buzzword it usually is. They've assembled a whole bunch of pieces that actually do work together and reinforce one another. (Hyperion, for instance, seems to be applicable to at least three different businesses they're in, and I suspect that the lessons they learn by making sapphire for Apple will be applied in multiple other areas where it makes sense for them to become a direct producer rather than just an equipment supplier.)

    No doubt they do plenty of research that doesn't pan out, too, but any time they do reach a point where they say "There's a bona fide product here," I'm inclined to believe them. Their track record has been very good on that front.

    Agree that execution and adoption will be the critical determinants in the long run. The execution part I'm willing to take on faith for the time being (but yeah, it's an unknown until the day it's definitively known, which it certainly isn't yet). On the adoption side, their mantra and the fundamental root of their whole strategy is finding ways to make things that are expensive to produce much cheaper to produce. When you achieve that, adoption pretty much takes care of itself.

    I fully expect that there will be stumbles along the way in their manufacturing arrangement with Apple (no project of that scale ever comes off without a hitch), plus all the usual missteps and difficult adjustments that predictably occur whenever a small company is in the process of morphing into a larger one. But both of those are pretty good problems to have. :)
    Mar 12 03:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies: Is There More To It Than Just Apple? [View article]
    Good overview. I would add that "transformational year" is a direct quote from the (traditionally rather tight-lipped) CEO, who is not the type to just say such things off the cuff. As the article indicates, there's a lot more going on under the covers here than the Apple/sapphire story which has gotten most of the headlines recently. It appears that GT's plan is to treat that deal in part as a funding source to turn several of their other ventures into grown-up businesses as well.

    Although everything that's currently known or suspected about Apple's sapphire plans seems to be priced (arguably overpriced) into the stock at this point, this Friday's investor presentation has the potential to be another watershed moment, turning the focus at least momentarily away from short-term share-price growth and putting it onto long-term company growth and what the plans are for getting there. And I'm not expecting it to mention Apple much, if at all.

    Even today's rapidly-run-up share prices will seem small in a few years, in my opinion, with today's buyers boasting about that time they managed to grab a piece of a large, diversified company at a small-company price. I intend to be among them. :)
    Mar 10 11:50 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GT Advanced Technologies Vs. Corning: Crystalline Sapphire Is Better (And Worse) Than Gorilla Glass [View article]
    Whenever a company releases a test video comparing "product our company makes" to "product our company doesn't make," there's not a whole lot of suspense about what the ending is going to be. I'm hard pressed to think of any situation a cover screen (which lies flat against all the innards of the device) is likely to encounter which remotely resembles the "getting pressed down by massive force against a raised metal ring" scenario that's being presented here.

    Is this the only kind of side-by-side test that Corning performed and took videos of? Doubtful. How come they didn't release the videos of any of those other tests? Gee, I wonder.
    Mar 5 02:14 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
226 Comments
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