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carlson73

carlson73
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  • Black Swan Events: How To Protect Your Portfolio When It Is Needed [View article]
    Sorry, I enjoyed the article, but slightly disagree with the conclusion with the faith in the Fed's policies substituting for normal animal spirits of a stock market overly optimistic about the future.
    Apr 3 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trying To Be The Honest Broker For The Week [View article]

    This was an interesting article, and the level of savings shown does seem very high.
    I believe some of the earlier posters are right, the excess savings are a reflection of demographics with a large number of boomers having more spending capacity being discretionary than at any time in their earlier lives, and have a large well deserved distrust of the competence and honesty of most institutions. This includes financial firms, the Fed, and government economic and social policy decisions. People understand intuitively that a combination of bad decisions led to the financial crisis, and that the welfare of the folks in the middle are largely being ignored.
    The issues are complex and most people (or maybe anyone in reality) don't know who specifically caused the problems, so the easiest decision is to have a lot of cash. It may have a negative real return of -1 to -2%, but at the end of the day they know it will be there.
    Jan 4 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Non-Scandal Of Scott Irwin And Craig Pirrong [View article]
    Excellent. The NYT- all the news that is fit to spin.
    Dec 30 03:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Portfolio Projections From 2013 [View article]
    Thanks for the great articles this year Mike. I really enjoy your writing, and the logic behind your statements.
    I have also learned a great deal from your work.
    I look forward to reading you in 2014.
    Dec 15 01:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shiller: Is Economics A Science? [View article]
    I like Shiller a lot, and I believe he walks the talk about integrity in writing what one knows versus policy views one can not prove.
    However, if the Nobel committee were really serious about that point as a qualifier, Krugman would have never been a candidate.
    Nov 12 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Thoughts On Macro Investing [View article]
    They are macro-investors, not macro-traders.
    Nov 4 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon: When The Music Stops [View article]
    I like your articles Bill, but your comment that you like to value Amazon based on P/S vs P/E because they don't have any E, makes as much sense as valuing athletic teams based on points scored rather than wins because they never win.
    For a business, not having E means you really are not a business.
    Sep 30 12:43 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: Payday For Shareholders [View article]
    One question for me is whether or not they are buying shares back faster than they are issuing options. If they are not doing that, the buy back is not helping shareholders, it is only helping employees.
    I like the idea of stock options for performance, but performance is not what has been happening at MSFT five years..
    Sep 17 09:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Judging Treasury [View article]
    Really good article Felix. It is clear that the big beneficiaries of the actions taken to date have been those with wealth, and until we generate real job growth it will stay that way. thanks
    Sep 17 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mission: Wealth-Building, Strategy - Today's Best Equity Selections [View article]
    Can you explain to me how a stock with essentially no earnings growth (Amazon), and a P/E over 100 has a maximum draw down of 4.8% if I remember your chart correctly?
    Amazon may be a great buy or it may be a pig in a poke, but describing it's range as narrow as you have described it seems like a serious case of over confidence.
    Sep 16 12:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summers Over [View article]
    There is no evidence that Janet Yellen is the most qualified candidate, in fact she is probably the candidate most like Alan Greenspan from a policy perspective.
    I believe even Obama is now worried about bubbles, but not Janet Yellen. She will continue trying to fix fiscal policy problems with monetary policy measures.
    Sep 16 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Holding Ourselves Hostage Again... [View article]
    I don't disagree with your point on gerrymandering at all LJK, but it seems to be such an automatic response from all parties now that stopping it would require taking it totally out of the hands of politicians. Given that their tentacles reach into everything including the judiciary these days, stopping it seems to really be a problem.
    The end result would seem to be red states getting redder and blue states getting bluer until one or both of them completely over step the tolerance of the citizenry.It is really interesting, everyone hates Congress, but they think their own Representative/Senator is really representing them well.It is ludicrous. But obviously a big part of the problem is people vote for whomever they feel is the nicest person that seems to agree with them, irrespective of how the person actualy votes on issues in Washington.I will still go back to term limits as a solution, even though I admit they will only happen with something akin to a revolution.
    Sep 15 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Rules, Part LIV: Corporate Bonuses And Incentive Structures [View article]
    You are right, and the key is a CEO who will not compromise on the need for real results.
    Basically no exceptions, and no allowances for unforeseen events. You make it or you do not and you get another chance next year.
    Additionally the best systems in my opinion reward the leadership with stock awards, not cash, and require the leadership of the company to own a significant amount of the company's stock, not just options, and they can not sell any of the stock until they have met significant ownership requirements (think several times their annual pay).
    If those requirements had been in place for many financial institutions on Wall Street a lot of self-dealing activity would not have happened.
    The problem with Wall Street incentive plans is that they are still structured like they are partnerships, with the partners having their long term wealth tied to the company's success. But they are not partnerships and the employees, even very senior ones can jump ship at no cost whenever it is in their short term interest to do so.
    Sep 13 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Holding Ourselves Hostage Again... [View article]
    This is exactly the forum for the debate called for in the Constitution. Just because neither player in a game is very competent, does not mean the game has the wrong rules.
    As long as the parties have as little in common about spending priorities as they do now, and neither party has the muscle to force their will, this will be the process.
    The American people are rational. They may not like the current process, but given what they have received as a return the last 2 times they have given either party complete control, the most irrational thing they could do would be to repeat that mistake.
    Despite the ugly, disingenuous spin from both sides and continual threats and untrue scare tactics, it has mostly worked. The government has not shut down, we have not had any more ridiculous political payoffs disguised as stimulus programs, and the economy is recovering and government spending is decreasing as a percentage of GDP.
    That is more than any of the "better managed" multi-party, or single party economic/political systems can say.
    Sep 13 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chart Of The Day - Government To Workers: You're Fired [View article]
    i would need to see a lot more data than this to believe there is not just as much positive as negative from this change.
    Sep 13 12:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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