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  • The 'Golden Age Of Biotechnology'? [View article]
    At some point in time, the Market will adjust to rational value. I believe that there is a biotech revolution. Nevertheless, PE ratios of 80 to infinity are a recipe for disaster in time. With the apparent exception of Energy, where the PE and other ratios show undervaluation, there is a long history of equities regressing to a Mean.

    And, companies, Biotech or otherwise, selling w/ no earnings or percentages of Revenue are a trap for optimistic shareholders that believe Trees grow to the Sky.

    Optimism is a wonderful feeling up to a point.
    Aug 3, 2015. 11:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    As a long of GILD's shares and having read many of the Posts on SA over the last 20 months, I've often wondered about the Number of people that don't know that they have Hepatitis.

    Some years ago, the VA contacted me, informed me as a Combat Corpsman as depicted in some of the Narratives accompanying medals -- I "may not know that I have Hepatitis". Scared me at first but, fortunately, the Blood Tests showed that I did not have Hepatitis. Other than that experience, I had no idea that I could have Hepatitis as a result of being dipped in other combatants blood during and after firefights/operations.

    So, that is my question: Could there be a large number of people that don't know they have Hepatitis???
    Aug 2, 2015. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Now A Good Time To Invest In Energy? [View article]
    There is, IMO, a lot of DISinformation in the public domain. Whether it's a 'Glut' or a "Lack of Demand" as the theme, in reality nobody in a cubicle on Hanover Street knows what's really going on or care about what's going on. The overriding consideration from 'analysts' is to enhance the Firm's inventory, either on the Long side or the Short side. For the last year or more, the barrage has been to make sentiment as negative as possible. Saudis are doing this or that; Iran is going to produce this or that in Oil; Tankers are clogging Harbors loaded w/ surplus Oil; the Saudis are pumping all out, regardless of the problems all out producing precipitates and so on and so forth.

    Nobody actually knows what's going on because what's actually going on doesn't matter. The idea is to create PERCEPTION which, in turn, become reality. So, now the flavor of the month is bearish sentiment --- six months from now the sentiment will be bullish.

    It's all a game -- whomever controls the Media, controls sentiment. So now, every commodity is being crushed --- next year, it'll be Technology. Same strategy - different asset class. We've already been through the Real Estate crash - so, now it's Energy.

    One thing about Commodites -- the Cohort never changes. With respect to Oil -- everyone uses it and there are billions of people on the Globe.
    Jul 31, 2015. 09:04 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Amid oil sector's crumble, Exxon's edge may be M&A [View news story]
    It's funny -- when the markets are in a bull move, many investors think owning XOM is foolhardy and that opportunities are being missed. But, once commodities crash, XOM ownership makes a lot of sense. This is such a time.
    Jul 31, 2015. 08:52 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For A 300-500 Point Correction In The S&P 500 - And Still A 'Secular Bull' [View article]
    Interesting Thread -- for what it's worth -- FED WON'T BE RAISING INTEREST RATE THIS YEAR.

    Just not going to happen -- regardless of what television "geniuses' say every 5 minutes.
    Jul 31, 2015. 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Uber closes funding round at $51B valuation; Microsoft reportedly invests (updated) [View news story]
    Yeah, MSFT has made a ton of mistakes……….(but, none of them seem to be apparent when analyzing the company's Balance Sheet).

    Seems like the Company has done a lot of things right.
    Jul 31, 2015. 08:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Oil Crash Could Be A Dividend Growth Investor's Best Friend Of The Decade [View article]
    No, actually Cheney killed the Lion -- that was Cheney's 2nd shot after he shot his buddy on that hunting trip.
    Jul 31, 2015. 08:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Oil Crash Could Be A Dividend Growth Investor's Best Friend Of The Decade [View article]
    grisly: Bush Jr was a classic example of what happens when someone reads classic comic books to you when you're a college student.

    Bush classic: "Nucler"

    What a Moron!
    Jul 31, 2015. 08:16 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron (CVX) Q2 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I thought the Earnings Call for CVX and XOM was very interesting. Rather than try to paraphrase what was said, I would recommend other Longs or those investors considering buying CVX or XOM to take the time to listen/read w/ interest.

    One of the reasons companies have strong Balance Sheets is due to the Quality of Management, especially in times of distress in commodity prices. Quarterly results are always the prime target of Wall Street and the variety of entities that broadcast or write about Quarterly results. In reality, the long run is a much more valuable method of evaluating publicly held companies (ala the wisdom of Graham, Buffett, and Peter Fisher). Unfortunately, Broadcasters and Magazine publishers have to keep the pot stirred in order to gain attention in order advertisers to keep paying money.

    At any rate, the Earnings calls for XOM and CVX is worth the time, imo.
    Jul 31, 2015. 07:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron -1.8% as earnings tumble, paced by $2.2B upstream loss [View news story]
    I didn't call today or yesterday or the day before "Capitulation" - apparently, you have.

    Note the words: "will be" -- generally, those words connote future.
    Jul 31, 2015. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron -1.8% as earnings tumble, paced by $2.2B upstream loss [View news story]
    Unfortunately, the Oil price crash will be solved, in large part, by Layoffs. Rig Counts are (or will) drop dramatically simply b/c there isn't enough Margin in the final product. Additionally, the 'easy money' ala the high yield market or bank lending won't be (or isn't) readily available due to the end price and the fact that many smaller drilling companies aren't known to be excellent managers in a falling market.

    But, the sum and substance of all this 'austerity' will be capitulation, bottoming, and a rebound. Until then, Oil field workers will be paid like WMT Greeters. Layoffs are a panacea to Drillers because Labor is the highest per capita overhead expense. Sad day ahead in the states that has an economy dependent of Oil drilling. Muncipalities will face devastating drops in funding essential services.

    Meanwhile, OUR FRIENDS IN SAUDI ARABIA get a pass b/c the Saudis like America. Right, and the Brooklyn Bridge can be bought, including tolls, for a mere pittance.

    It's time to wake up to the definition of a 'friend' as a person that has your best interests in mind. I don't see Saudis as fitting that definition - not by a long shot.
    Jul 31, 2015. 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Oil Crash Could Be A Dividend Growth Investor's Best Friend Of The Decade [View article]
    Cash472: You're welcome. Always nice to be remembered as a Veteran.

    I may be mistaken but I don't see the Saudis as friends of America. I recall the mass exodus of Saudis from the US the day after 911 (via the George W. Bush shuttle back to their country). Secondly, I don't blame Obama (although he seems to be blamed for everything, probably will be for facilitation to killing of the Lion in in Africa).

    I see the Saudis as exclusively protecting their own interests b/c Iran scares the hell out of them and the US provides serious cover against Tehran.

    With regard to the Saudi's ANNOUNCED intention to cripple Fracking in the US in order to preserve their Market share; I wonder what the fall out would be if the United States lifted the export ban on Oil w/ the stated intention of cutting into Saudi Arabia's best customers (India, China, and Japan)? Or, if the US decided not to import the 4 million bbl/day of Saudi Oil (I'm told this is the amount, I haven't verified that figure).

    I don't like to be threatened by foreign entities that feel they can threaten b/c they're the swing producer in the Oil market. And, I don't like to see workers laid off or essential services cut off due to a 'stated intention by a foreign government' that we protect and assure their safety in a very volatile place in the World.

    I don't have any problem w/ competition -- but, let's make it fair -- US export Oil to India, China and Japan and see if the Saudis like that response to their 'stated intention'?
    Jul 30, 2015. 02:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Street Expects Worst From Chevron, Exxon - Room For Upside Surprise? [View article]
    According to CNBC, this morning XOM, CVX, COP, BP and others reaffirmed the safety of the Dividends. Companies reportedly stated that CAPEX will be cut and the dividend is not going to be cut.

    I'm accumulating these Super Majors because I'm convinced that Oil is bottoming and that these companies have an iron-clad Balance Sheet. As a Value investor, the ratios are exactly where I like them to be as a long term holder of quality companies in a sector w/ an astronomical cohort.
    Jul 30, 2015. 02:26 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Beats And Raises: Thinking Through The Future Of Its Business And Its Stock Price [View article]
    Not much more to say about GILD. Now it's up to Mr. Market to see the value of GILD's business. I firmly believe that all the facts are out and on the Table. If GILD can't move the needle after blowing out Quarterly numbers time and again, there isn't much that dialogue, logic, sound reasoning and common sense can ameliorate.

    So, we're left with watching AMZN have no earnings and sell at multiples of a hundred. We're observers of NFLX operating on Blue Sky prognostications that everyone on the Planet will be sitting in front of a television streaming video. We're also witness to Go Pro, ZNGA, TSLA, and numerous other momentum stocks w/ very little substance but tons of optimism move up the price per share scale.

    In the Meantime, all we can do is to continue acquiring more and more shares of GILD. When Mr. Market decides to look at Fundamentals, Earnings, Free Cash Flow, and Gross/Net Margins --- everyone will wonder: "How come GILD's share price has moved up so dramatically --- the company isn't even owned by NFLX?
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:25 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude futures parse losses on inventory draw [View news story]
    Notice above -- CNBC pummeling the price of Oil. CNBC gets its marching orders from the WS guests that appear on the informercial. Nothing positive above when it comes to Oil. A Blessing to Short Sellers on CNBC.

    Par for the course for CNBC --
    Jul 29, 2015. 01:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment