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  • Massive Deflation Is Happening Now [View article]
    With respect to deflation and price of Oil. I was told today that prognostications are that the price of gasoline will be "around $1.50/gal in December". I have no idea if this will be an accurate statement in December. What I do see now however is that the price of a barrel of Oil has dropped from $100. (approx) to $40. and is projected to go lower. Despite that fact, the price of a gallon of gasoline at the pump in Ca is well over $3.00. I have heard that this phenomena is due to Refiner shutdown and reports of this nature.

    My past experience as an Energy investor for a long time is that starting about now (end of August) each year begins a transition from large gasoline stocks to maintain supply for the driving season to heating oil in order to have sufficient supply to heat homes in the winter. Therefore, there is the necessity of switching refiners to produce heating oil. Obviously, this transition normally takes place in September, October and into middle of November. Furthermore, after arriving home following a driving vacation through several states, I can honestly attest to the fact that it seems that every highway in these several states is jammed with bumper-to-bumper traffic. In fact, it almost seems to me that there is no longer a "rush hour" -- it actually seems as though every hour is a 'rush' hour based on the number of vehicles on the roads. And, about 3 months ago, I read that a third of Chryslers sales were SUV's. Meanwhile the price of a barrel of Oil has fallen 60% in 14 months.

    Lastly, Utilities that provide the energy for Air Conditioners in the Summer and Warmth in the Winter seem to be running at full bore. Oil, Nat Gas, and Coal are the feedstocks to keep us cool and warm.

    Where are they hiding all this "glut" in the Supply of Oil? I can't think of a Port in the United States or anywhere else where Tankers are sitting low in the water due to the weight of all the extra oil on board due to the Supply glut.

    Does anyone really believe there is an overwhelming Supply of Oil sitting around or a significant drop in the demand for Fossil Fuels? I don't see it, not even for laughs.
    Aug 21, 2015. 06:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Massive Deflation Is Happening Now [View article]
    Anyone that believes there isn't Deflation needs to look at long term interest rates of Treasuries in particular and the Bond market in general. Definitely deflationary period now.

    Good news is that anyone looking for Yield has to turn to the Dividend paying ability of the top tier companies.
    Aug 21, 2015. 12:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Consider Buying The Drop In Chevron, In 4 Charts [View article]
    Well written, thoughtful Article. As the bearish sentiment about Oil (and other commodities) continues unabated, there are wonderful opportunities presented to shareholders that understand the value of good dividends in a deflationary environment.

    As Treasury rates continue to fall precipitously, the search for Yield gathers momentum. CVX (XOM, COP and others) present strong balance sheets that enable investors to approach of 5% return at current (or lower) share price levels. Bonds are expensive and as the prices continue to rise, allegedly in the pursuit of safety, the yields fall.

    The 10 year Treasury is just over 2%; CVX is over 4%. CVX has a PSR at or under 1.00; XOM similar ratios. Price to Book around 2x.

    Bottom line: Whether it's a Soverign or the guy across the street, everyone wants and is searching for Yield. IMO now is a great time to buy CVX and others in commodities.
    Aug 20, 2015. 01:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron At 5% Dividend Yield - Is It Finally Time To Fill Up The Tank, Or Is The Tank Empty For Good? [View article]
    It may sound too simplistic but when I see CVX drop from a high of $130+/-share to $83/sh, I'm a buyer. When I hear or see television pundits speculate on exactly how poor an investment CVX is, I'm a buyer. When I hear or see other pundits claim the dividend is in jeopardy, I'm a buyer.

    I like to emulate the strategies of Ben Graham, Warren Buffett, and Peter Fisher -- to buy when others are panicking. From the flood of negative news about the end of the Energy world, I'm pretty close to certain that now is the time to buy.

    But, then again -- that may be too simplistic for the 20 something year olds from "HAAAAAVAAARRRDD YADDDDD" that permeate business television.
    Aug 18, 2015. 09:00 PM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: U.S. set to approve landmark crude oil export swaps with Mexico [View news story]
    From where I sit, there is a very large problem for the United States to be beholding to any country in the Middle East. 40 years ago, the US had no choice -- the Arabs cut off or curtailed the supply of Oil to America and everyone was forced to endure long lines at the gas pump and was only allowed to get gasoline on alternate days of the week depending on the last number of the license plate (odd on certain days and even on the other days). At that time, we had no choice.

    IMO that use of Oil to blackmail the United States should have left an indelible mark on our politicians. Unfortunately, we have a former Presidents kissing or hugging the Saudi King when "W" was in office. In the meantime, Saudis have domestic welfare programs that cost a fortune but keep the local terrorists focused on doing serious mischief outside The Kingdom. The Politicians claim that Saudi Arabia is our friend in well timed sound bites. The United States stands for human rights while the Saudis stand for whatever they can do to keep human rights exclusive to the 5,000 members of the Royal family.

    Now, for the last 14 months or so, the Saudis have proclaimed war on outside Oil producers and American leaders standby and watch the price of Oil fall 60% in that timeframe. And, to add insult to injury -- out "leaders" find reasons to give Saudi Arabia a Pass even though we're on the receiving end of Saudi Arabia's stated objective to put low cost "Fracking" companies out of existence by hammering the price of Oil into the dirt.

    Friends like SA -- America doesn't need, imo.
    Aug 18, 2015. 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi: Big oil becoming a buy [View news story]
    While it's fashionable to anoint Buffett for everything; he has made his share of mistakes. I believe he is the best Capital allocator, bar none. Buffett has made very good decisions in acquiring companies over the last 55 years. In terms of his Equity investments, that's not his forte. He's owned KO for 30+ years and has collected the dividends which have made his basis in KO shares zero or negative. In terms of capital appreciation, KO hasn't been exemplary compared to his exemplary acquisitions of businesses.

    And, a few years ago, he took a flyer on the US Dollar and lost a Billion dollars -- at least that's what was reported in the Media.

    All in all, Buffett has been a fantastic allocator of Capital and acquirer of businesses.
    Aug 18, 2015. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: U.S. set to approve landmark crude oil export swaps with Mexico [View news story]
    The Saudi's have accomplished what hasn't been accomplished in 42 years: Lifting of the Exportation of Oil. That law has been in effect since the Oil embargo of 1973. Now States like Alaska, Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota are putting pressure on Congress to lift the Ban. So, the "brain-cells" in Saudi Arabia, in their quest to 'maintain market share' have shot themselves in the Foot (or, the Left Ear).

    When the USA has a National debt of $18 Trillion dollars and growing, growing, growing; the US has to do something to address this dire situation before the national debt hits $25 Trillion. Exporting Oil to Saudi's best customers - India, China and Japan is a good start and a proper response to the Saudi's running the price of Oil down 50-plus percent.

    Any person w/ one semester of Economics in a Junior College would see that the Saudi's have forfeited hundreds of billions of dollars running their Oil Complex at full bore and absorbing the 50+ percent decrease over the last 14 months or so.

    When the Exporting of Oil Ban is lifted, I want to own CVX, XOM, COP and others. In fact, I have owned all 3 for a very long time and continue to accumulate more and more shares. It's time for the United States to send a message to OPEC and the other 'enemies' that get our protection while they spit in our face as a Nation, IMO.
    Aug 15, 2015. 07:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron And Exxon Mobil: Swirling Near The Drain? [View article]
    Once I read the Title -- I didn't bother reading the Article. Apparently, in this Author's view, the Balance Sheet of XOM and CVX is meaningless.

    >>> Swirling Near the Drain…….. that says it all.
    Aug 14, 2015. 04:54 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digging Further Into Chevron, Preemptive Dividend Cut Likely [View article]
    As long as we're allowed to speculate and since the Author has done so in a Bearish style; I would like to say that CVX will be back above $120/sh in 2016.

    IMO by any standard measure of CVX, the shares are dirt cheap. Saudis have provided the impetus for lifting of the 1973 Law on the exportation of US Oil. While the immediate impact of Saudi Arabia's decision to pump, pump, pump as much Oil as they (alone) feel is necessary to 'protect market share" is frustrating to shareholders; in the long run (a year or so from now) the Saudis have shot themselves in the foot. America has an $18,000,000,000,000 national debt. America protects Saudi Arabia militarily. America imports Saudi Oil while states like North Dakota and Texas feel the impact of Saudi's actions vis a vis 'fracking'.

    Americans aren't long on patience. We don't like unfairness or being held hostage by any country. So, one of these days, Congress will wake up and see the realities of the situation as set forth above and take the necessary steps to deal w/ Saudi Arabia -- a country whose actions are detrimental while it talks a tale of being a Friend to America. Actions speak louder than words, imo.
    Aug 14, 2015. 02:50 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: U.S. set to approve landmark crude oil export swaps with Mexico [View news story]
    It is definitely time to remove the archaic 1973 Oil Export ban. Additionally, based on Saudi Arabia's conduct to 'save Market share', the United States should cut off all importation of Saudi Oil. Moreover, the USA should begin to compete w/ Saudi Arabia in their supply to their best customers, India, China, and Japan. Since the Saudis have chosen to wreck the economies of Oil producing states in the US, we should be giving them a taste of their own medicine.

    Anyone under the illusion that the Saudis are a friend of the Unites States needs to take the time to closely examine the realities of the relationship.

    Oil producing States in the US shouldn't be held hostage to Saudi Arabia for any reason, least of all Oil, IMO.
    Aug 14, 2015. 02:24 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Prices Will Rebound [View article]
    The Saudis remind me of the Aesop's fable, Killing the Golden Goose in order to get all the eggs now rather than waiting for each egg. I don't know what the Politics are among the Saudi's, the USA, Egypt and so on. But, from a purely economic standpoint, as the Article set forth immediately above, the Saudis have blundered big time by pumping, pumping, pumping their only Resource "in order to maintain market share". It is a dangerous game to believe that pumping intended to damage or ruin the Shale producers in the United States will have the desired impact.

    Americans are known to find ways to invent, upgrade, or develop better ways to overcome burdens through Technology. In this case, to 'frack' oil in more efficient cost-saving ways to produce Oil/NG. On the other hand, the Saudis are known to be completely devoid of developing new Patents for anything so they have only Oil reserves. Even w/ all the Sand in the country, they can't seems to master how to produce Semiconductor chips.

    I'll always bet on Americans to overcome problems caused by dictators in foreign lands.
    Aug 6, 2015. 04:59 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ExxonMobil increases Permian position with new deals [View news story]
    XOM - with all the negative sentiment, the time is probably right to cherry-pick sweet spots in the Oil patch. As a long time shareholder, I like to see XOM picking up domestic assets in Energy. Let the lunatics surrounding Saudi Arabia threaten those supplies.

    XOM's Balance Sheet gives the company lots of ways to play the 50% drop in the Price of Oil. As a refiner, cheap feed stocks help keep the earnings scenario/share price at sensible levels.

    Congress should lift the Export Ban and give the Middle East 'royals' a taste of their own medicine, imo.
    Aug 6, 2015. 04:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. crude oil settles below $45 but energy equities outperform [View news story]
    It's a little difficult to believe the constant downer language on Oil. Oil is down 50% but the bearish barrage remains constant and unabated.

    So, if you believe the shorts; when Oil goes to Zero -- you can fill your gas tank or heat your house for Free.
    Aug 6, 2015. 04:19 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Mobil - What's Most Relevant For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    Oil is a political as well as an economic commodity. When the dust settles on this alleged "Supply Glut"/"Lack of Demand thesis; Oil and other commodities will come back much stronger than the bearers of bad news are predicting at the moment.

    XOM, CVX, COP and others are blue chip energy stocks that pay a higher dividend than the 10 year or 30 year Treasury Bond. And, their fundamentals are a whole lot stronger than TSLA, ZNGA, GO PRO, and the dozens of Momentum stocks that are selling at astronomical PE's or no earnings at all. When the sentiment for Commodities changes, the super majors will rise significantly in share price.

    Now is a waiting game so a long term investor collects the dividends until sanity returns to the commodities sectors.
    Aug 6, 2015. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Prices Will Rebound [View article]
    All this verbiage about the Oil Glut -- yet, the United States is still a NET IMPORTER OF OIL.

    In the face of such a overwhelming, price killing GLUT --- why is the United States still importing Oil?

    Disinformation works -- and is working for the Shorts on Wall street, IMO.
    Aug 5, 2015. 03:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment