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joyjox007

joyjox007
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  • J.C. Penney: Sometimes The Market Gives You A Gift To Buy [View article]
    I bought more today @ 7.19. Hope it turn out to be a gift. If it goes below 7, I will buy more.
    Apr 15 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Sometimes The Market Gives You A Gift To Buy [View article]
    We completely switched from Kohl's to JCP and happy with the decision.
    Apr 15 07:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: The Illusion Of Cheapness [View article]
    I bought more today. Will see how it plays.
    Apr 15 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: The Illusion Of Cheapness [View article]
    Another upgrade.

    http://on.barrons.com/...

    I know many will say they don't care or analysis is biased. My point is that sentiment and response has been positive recently. BTW, JCP is down 3.4% today.
    Apr 10 07:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: The Illusion Of Cheapness [View article]
    Another positive boost by Citi.

    http://bit.ly/Q1HpCN
    Apr 8 08:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Back By Popular Demand [View article]
    Dante,
    I completely agree. I don't think many people appreciate the stability that JCP stock has seen in the last one month. Low volume and low volatility will force short and option traders to cover. I am really happy to see JCP holding up at times when overall market is behaving the other way. Hope the momentum continues...
    Apr 7 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Back By Popular Demand [View article]
    Flip, 119m is still a big number. Only less than 10% short was covered. Many were hoping/expecting much worse result whereas the result was surprisingly good and management gave positive outlook for the Q1. As per my expectation, short interest would have dropped even further.


    The reason I said "BK & liquidity concern is off the table" is based on the assumption that they have projected $2 billion at the end of this yr. They can further dilute at $9+ (if required). I am hoping that it will touch $10 before Q1 result.

    Apr 4 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Back By Popular Demand [View article]
    Dante, I am surprised that short interest ratio is still very high, almost ~40%.

    http://bit.ly/Y3X05L

    This says that the recent gain is due to long term bulls that actually saw substance in turnaround story. I am not sure what shorts are hoping for going forward. BK and liquidity is off the table. Volatility and volume is relatively low in the last month. I really doubt if stock price can go down to $6 again (unless Q1 is a disaster, which does not seem to be the case).

    IMO, at this point risk/reward favors the long than short from both technical and fundamental point of view. Stock price has upward momentum and is higher than both 50 & 200 days moving averages. I am no expert but I think that short squeeze will start sooner than later.
    Mar 27 11:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Back By Popular Demand [View article]
    Dante,
    Thanks a lot. I held onto JCP and kept buying as it went down to 5.5 and 5. All credit goes to you. Really appreciate your analysis. Hope your prediction comes true.
    Mar 21 01:31 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney will not report monthly metrics this year [View news story]
    Yes, I hope it hits 9+ before the end of the quarter. All the bad news are gone. Going forward, it is no news or good news.
    Mar 3 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: A Ray Of Hope, But Be Careful Of Being Blinded [View article]
    Hi EA. Thanks for the article. I always like your analysis. In one of your comment you said "If JCP goes much higher though, the risk reward model tilts back the other way". Can you please help us understand at what price point you think the risk reward would tilt the other way?

    So far I am happy with the liquidity and BK off the table in the near term. I am hoping that some bullish momentum and short covering can push the stock to $9+ by the end of this quarter?
    Feb 27 02:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The AT&T Fire Sale [View article]
    It is a steal for 5.75% yield. Took a small position today at $32. If it goes down (below 30), I will buy more. I am also long VZ. I like VZ more than T but it is good to own both.
    Feb 7 11:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C.Penney: A Case Study In Poor IR, Time For Ullman To Step Down [View article]
    I don't believe in the management anymore. I don't think Ullman is the problem. At least, he has a lot of experience in retail and knows this company inside out. If things are not good, I don't think they can do much. Overall retail is in the hot water and JCP is likely to get burnt more than their competitors.

    Unfortunately for JCP, no news is a bad news. If we believe in what management said recently, it is still a good news. If they are flat in December sales and close to $2 Billion in liquidity at the start of 2014, it is big plus (somehow I doubt). IMO, current stock price, short interest ratio and options suggest that market is assuming further dilution at the end of Q1 and stock price close to $4. I don't think this will happen.

    I did a mistake by not taking profit when it peaked at $10+. Going forward I will be more vigilant. If they screw up with what they said, I am out of it at any dead cat bounce.

    Some great discussion going on here and a lot of learning for me.. Thanks Dante, EA, Flip and Sfi. It is perfectly ok to have differences in opinion but lets have a decent argument.
    Feb 1 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Estimating How It Performed In November And During Black Friday Weekend [View article]
    JCP has huge short interest. Very soon squeeze will start and shorts will have to cover, further pushing stock higher.

    http://bit.ly/Y3X05L
    Dec 3 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Momentum Has Carried Its Valuation Back To 2010 Levels Already [View article]
    Flip, unlike you, I am far too busy with my regular work to be in the market or SA for fun. I don't even bother to comment or even read an article if I don't have a position. Yes, I put money down on those reasons. One obvious reason I did not mention was that the stock tanked more than 50% in recent few months due to change in management and uncertainty of BK vs. turnaround. I don't touch a stock until it is hammered. That being said, I do look at brand value, fundamentals and all those points I mentioned earlier.

    I am in early 30's, hold PhD degree in engineering and work for Fortune top 10 company. I DON'T (I am not saying "may not" as I am certain) understand finance as much as you do but one thing I can say for sure that this is not the place where you can apply all your experience and analysis and say for sure that "this will happen by this date". If you would, you be betting your entire farm against JCP. You can see countless examples where so called smart investors vanished (e.g. Long-term Capital Management).

    I do engineering analysis and at the end I know with 100% confidence what would happen and what won't. I wish anyone could claim the same about investing (interestingly many people do). So far I am happy with my investment in JCP. My average price is $8.3. Had it gone down to $5.75 and $5.00. I would have bought more. I always keep spare cash in case it falls further. Of course, it could go to zero and I could lose everything but I got lucky. This is the risk I always take. FYI, my portfolio returned 45% in 2013 and 57% so far this year. I bought NOK, BBY, NFLX exactly for the same reasons but got scared and sold them early with ~ only 40-50% gain. Wish I kept them longer. I took a small position in TFM and LF (again the same reasons), if they go down I will buy more.

    I am learning a lot reading articles and comments by experts like you and many others. I know that investment is the field where I should be reading both sides as nothing is certain and true.

    BTW, did anyone notice that today someone bought 20+ million common stock in JCP minutes before closing the market. Shorts may have to run for their life.
    Nov 29 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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