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  • J.C. Penney: Back By Popular Demand [View article]
    Thanks a lot. I held onto JCP and kept buying as it went down to 5.5 and 5. All credit goes to you. Really appreciate your analysis. Hope your prediction comes true.
    Mar 21 01:31 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Sometimes The Market Gives You A Gift To Buy [View article]
    We completely switched from Kohl's to JCP and happy with the decision.
    Apr 15 07:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • General Electric: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet [View article]
    Amazing.. author wrote bearish article on GE 4 days ago.
    Apr 20 11:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Management Discusses Q3 2012 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I am so glad I was able to buy at ~$45. All thanks to David Einhorn.
    Oct 30 11:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Countdown At J.C. Penney, An Opportunity For Speculators [View article]
    Wow, non of the prediction of this author went right. JCP is up ~20% AH. Have a good sleep.
    May 15 07:11 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The AT&T Fire Sale [View article]
    It is a steal for 5.75% yield. Took a small position today at $32. If it goes down (below 30), I will buy more. I am also long VZ. I like VZ more than T but it is good to own both.
    Feb 7 11:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Momentum Has Carried Its Valuation Back To 2010 Levels Already [View article]
    EA, are you kidding? the last time it was ~$25 was October 2012. Why not compare with that? Though being long, I always enjoyed your unbiased analysis. I am disappointed with this one.

    Prices has not come to the point where greed will dominate the fear. I think that point is ~$18 (Strictly my opinion). I will start selling before that. To this date JCP is still one of the most shorted stock. Stock price is still way below what it was three months ago.

    A few things to consider:
    1) JCP boasts one of the largest hedge fund position.
    2) End of the year holiday season is a boon for retail and JCP is well prepared for that.
    3) JCP started disclosing monthly sales data. Why?? Because they know they are beating past estimates thumbs down. Definitely in November and December.
    4) CEO just bought ~$1 million common stock. He is one of the most experienced CEOs in retail industry.
    5) $2 billion liquidity at the end of the year.

    I can tell you my personal experience. Macy's, Khol's and JCP, all have their fixed customer base who shop with the store credit cards. I have both Khol's and JCP's credit card. In the last 2 year I only went to Khol's for shopping but recently I switched back to JCP as they brought back the discount coupons. It would be interesting if someone can dig out the information if customers actually cancelled their credit card in the RJ era. I doubt if they did as people usually don't do that. Simply not going to shop is much easier. JCP did not have to do much to bring back their customers. Just restart the coupons. Khol's quarterly result call and their guidance indicate that shift.

    One thing RJ did good was to renovate the store. I was stunned when I went there 2 months back. Since then I have been there thrice for shopping. In future CapEx will go down and D&A will increase, helping the balance sheet.

    I highly appreciate your fundamental analysis but unfortunately you can't look at the past and extrapolate it to predict the future. If that would be the case, every professor at MBA schools would be a billionaire.
    Nov 28 10:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Financial And Capital Diligence Is Required In The Coal Business [View article]
    Good article. However, I don't see a reason why only BTU will perform better going forward. I agree that BTU is in a better position financially to weather any downturn. I started buying coal in the last 1-3 months. I am long BTU, ACI, ANR, CLF, VALE. Already sold WLT at ~25% gain.

    Electricity generation by coal has already increased this year as natural gas is much higher compared to the last year. Once the dust is settled, coal has nowhere to go but up. IMO it is once in a lifetime opportunity to buy coal at such depressed level.
    Aug 20 08:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Could Be The Winter Natural Gas Bulls Have Been Waiting For [View article]
    You forgot to mention that Dr. Abdussamatov does not believe in global warming caused by increasing carbon footprint. That itself raises the a big question mark on credibility of your entire thesis and assumption.

    Predicting stock seems to be easier than predicting weather. every year people assumed that coming winter would be much colder.. and lost tons of money. What if the entire calculation is off by 1-2 year? Given the long cycle time it is a valid assumption. In most cases a mild winter is always followed by a mild summer. I am long KWK but for the same reason mentioned by the author.
    Aug 20 08:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carl Icahn looks to be out for blood, disclosing late today that he's bought 14M shares, representing a 13% stake in battered Herbalife (HLF). According to the SEC filing, Icahn claims to "have conducted significant analysis," and "concluded that the company has a legitimate business model, with favorable long-term opportunities for growth." The disclosure further adds that he intends to have discussions with management regarding the business and strategic alternatives to enhance shareholder value, such as a recapitalization or going-private. Shares +20% AH. [View news story]
    Yes. same with me. I am going to sell 1/3rd of my position tomorrow at 55% gain.
    Feb 14 07:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy GE And Capture A Good Dividend? [View article]
    GE revenue is going down every quarter. Do you think dividend high? Look at the dividend by Siemens.

    It has lot of cash but do look at the mountain to debt it has.

    High order but margin is squeezed. Almost every analysts have lowered EPS for the next year.

    Energy is a drag due to economy. A big portion of revenue comes from EU.

    Production tax credit (PTC) for wind is expiring next year. If it is not renewed, wind business is set to fall off the cliff. This is highly likely considering political gridlock and anemic economic condition.

    Stock is not even doing better compared to S&P500. How is it compared with its peers (Siemens, UTX)? Rest all are doing better in terms of stock value, revenue and profitability. Pratt & Whiteny's PurePower is winning the market. Siemens's turbines and MRI are better in technology winning over GE's. The biggest problem with GE is that management is conservative and slow in responding to the challenges. It is no longer a technology company. It is led by people who does not know anything about engineering & technology.

    GE appliances is another drag. Housing is still weak and appliance is heavily dependent on that. Now it decided to go into the solar and battery business when these sectors are extremely competitive and suffering from over supply and squeezed margin. The only reason for this move is to take advantage of 30% investment tax credit. This is how it manages to pay zero tax. It will be proved to be another drag.

    GE was able to manage bumper 4th quarter last year. Can it replicate the same this 4th quarter? No way.

    Despite all these I believe GE is better positioned and set to grow in a long term. I will wait for the 4th quarter to see where market moves. If Italy and Spain goes down then buckle up for another march 2009.
    Nov 22 10:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walter Energy - A Massively Leveraged Option On A Recovery On Met Coal Prices [View article]
    Dante, Glad to hear from you on WLT. After JCP I recently went long WLT. I think met coal has better chance of recovery. I see a new wave of spending on infrastructure..
    May 31 12:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: The Illusion Of Cheapness [View article]
    Another upgrade.

    I know many will say they don't care or analysis is biased. My point is that sentiment and response has been positive recently. BTW, JCP is down 3.4% today.
    Apr 10 07:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Back By Popular Demand [View article]
    I completely agree. I don't think many people appreciate the stability that JCP stock has seen in the last one month. Low volume and low volatility will force short and option traders to cover. I am really happy to see JCP holding up at times when overall market is behaving the other way. Hope the momentum continues...
    Apr 7 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: A Ray Of Hope, But Be Careful Of Being Blinded [View article]
    Hi EA. Thanks for the article. I always like your analysis. In one of your comment you said "If JCP goes much higher though, the risk reward model tilts back the other way". Can you please help us understand at what price point you think the risk reward would tilt the other way?

    So far I am happy with the liquidity and BK off the table in the near term. I am hoping that some bullish momentum and short covering can push the stock to $9+ by the end of this quarter?
    Feb 27 02:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment