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I'm fascinated about the market. It's completely unpredictable, at least for me it is - like a drama-filled soap opera that is on 6.5 hours a day, 5 days a week and still leaves you wondering what will happen next.
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  • Why $0.25 EPS Is All I Want For Q1F2014

    What's so significant about $0.25 EPS? Is it too much to ask for when the consensus estimate is $0.05-$0.07?

    Let's go back to Q4F2013...

    CEO Thorsten Heins said "We have implemented numerous changes at BlackBerry over the past year and those changes have resulted in the Company returning to profitability in the fourth quarter. Including the anticipated 50% sequential increase in marketing spending, the Company believes it will approach breakeven financial results in the first quarter based on its lower cost base, more efficient supply chain, and improved hardware margins."

    Regarding the outlook for this quarter, the company said, "including the anticipated 50% sequential increase in marketing spending, the Company believes it will approach break-even financial results in the first quarter based on its lower cost base, more efficient supply chain, and improved hardware margins."

    blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/0.../

    What does that mean to you? To me at the time, I thought it meant to break-even for Q1F2014. What confused me more was that BlackBerry registered $0.19 EPS on 1 million Z10 sales in Q4F2013. So how could you not break-even in Q1 with an expected 3-4 million Z10+Q10 sales?

    Perhaps Heins wasn't targeting an EPS break-even goal for Q1F2014, but rather for the company to break-even on the EPS TTM! Why $0.25 or maybe even $0.24? Let's look at the previous 3 quarters' EPS:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/financials/?q=BB-T

    Q2F2013 = ($0.45)

    Q3F2013 = $0.02

    Q4F2013 = $0.19

    In order for the EPS TTM to reach break-even we would need $0.24, to be profitable we need $0.25.

    Why is a positive EPS TTM important? It could be important because there may still be a lot of money on the sidelines undecided about the next step. These monies belong to pension funds, mutual funds, 401(K)s, and the retail public, and they may be governed by rules restricting them from investing in BlackBerry. With $0.25 EPS, BlackBerry will be officially profitable and out of the doghouse; hopefully by removing those restrictions, Blackberry could welcome new investors.

    In the long-term, BlackBerry is setting up quite nicely. With growing earnings and future growth prospects (new product launches with 6 in total this year, BBM multi-platform crossover and monetization via BBM Money, BBM Channels, BES10.1.1 implementation, and BB10/QNX licensing e.g. the most recent being with Garmin and their K2 system wardsauto.com/politics/garmin-official-n...), there's no where for BlackBerry to go, but up.

    Special thanks all my friends that I've had the honour of meeting while 'longing' BlackBerry. Not only are you guys a great team, but more importantly a great family. I also want to thank oneinfiniteloop for providing me the idea for writing this article. I am also greatly appreciative for the support and knowledge that I've received from the fine folks here at Seeking Alpha, from Stockhouse as well as Stocktwits. And thanks to BlackBerry support sites such as Crackberry.com, N4BB.com, blackberryos.com, rapidberry.net, nerdberry.net and many others. Thank you all. May we all be prosperous and successful in the future.

    Disclosure: I am long BBRY.

    Tags: BBRY
    Jun 27 8:11 PM | Link | 11 Comments
  • BlackBerry In Japan Via Sony?

    Hi SeekingAlpha,

    I have an interesting read for you all. all ideas are just opinions and are not proven facts...yet.

    Today came 2 pieces of news that came out that had me wondering why they were released.

    the first news

    BlackBerry strengthens board with wireless industry veterans, Richard Lynch, a former long-serving executive at US wireless carrier Verizon Communications and Bert Nordberg, a former CEO of Sony Ericsson.

    [url]www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/07/us-bl...[/url]

    cool, i thought. i wonder what they would bring to the table.

    the second news came out and had a much more muted affected

    BlackBerry to stop selling handsets in Japan, citing market share in Japan has shrunk to 0.3 percent from 5 percent, and that they cannot justify the cost of modifying its operating system to accommodate the Japanese language.

    [url]www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/07/us-bl...[/url]

    that completely puzzled me as to why they would announce that. Japan is a huge market for smartphones and surely they might be able to claw some of that back. The language part was a bit off too, b/c they tout the BlackBerry z10 as one of the best phones when it comes to language inputs.

    why these 2 announcements why now? you may have already figured it out.

    my opinion, but i believe BlackBerry picked up the ex-CEO of Sony Ericsson, Bert Nordberg in order to bridge a relationship between BlackBerry and Sony. Some found it sad that Blackberry won't be selling in Japan, but with this connection we might see this relationship extend to having BB10 OS on Sony phones for the Japanese and Global Market.

    The partnership, via a licensing deal, makes perfect sense. Sony has it's struggles too. Sony makes good phones, but they're not popular when everyone else is getting a Samsung or an LG or any of the chinese makers.

    this would be a synergistic deal that would benefit both parties.

    [B]update 02/11/2013[/B]

    dated 01/28/2013

    1. RIM names multiple BlackBerry 10 music, video partners - RIM has gathered a number of big-name music and video partners for its BlackBerry 10 storefront, ranging from Walt Disney Studios and Sony Pictures to Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group.

    may 8th 2012

    2. RIM continues the executive shuffle with new COO and CMO

    [url]www.engadget.com/2012/05/08/rim-continue.../[/url]

    "Changes are afoot at Research in Motion. The Canadian smartphone maker today announced the addition of two new names to top executive slots. Former Sony Mobile Communications executive VP Kristian Tear will be taking on the role of the company's chief operating officer. RIM's new chief marketing officer Frank Boulben, meanwhile, comes over from Lightsquared, after having worked for the likes of Vodafone, Vivendi and Orange. The news comes on the heels of word that new CEO Thorsten Heins has been "clearing house" at the ailing phone company."

    Aug 2nd 2012

    3. Licensing is an option

    Heins is keenly aware that he must get cheaper devices into the mainstream. "We don't have the economy of scale to compete against the guys who crank out 60 handsets a year. We have to differentiate and have a focused platform. To deliver BB10 we may need to look at licensing it to someone who can do this at a way better cost proposition than I can do it. There's different options we could do that we're currently investigating."

    That raises the prospect of a BlackBerry phone that is made by, say, Samsung or Sony. "You could think about us building a reference system, and then basically licensing that reference design, have others build the hardware around it - either it's a BlackBerry or it's something else being built on the BlackBerry platform. We're investigating this and it's way too early to get into any details. We have to also model this from a finance perspective - that's why we're working with the financial advisers to see if we do this where would it take the company. Either we do it ourselves or we do it with a partner. But we will not abandon the subscriber base."

    02/14/2013

    BlackBerry is considering licensing its smartphone software to other phone manufacturers in an attempt to get low-cost devices running its new BlackBerry 10 mobile operating system.

    "We are looking into licensing [for lower-cost devices]," BlackBerry chief executive Thorsten Heins told Fairfax Media on Thursday during an international media briefing at the company's headquarters in Waterloo, Canada.

    (thanks 'aaaaaargh')

    4. Alicia Keys record label is with RCA ([url]en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alicia_Keys);[/url] and RCA is the flagship recording label of Sony Music Entertainment. ([url]en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RCA_Records[/url]) Thanks 'FSeverino.'

    special thanks goes out to "SHALLITELLUYOURCRAZY", Yasch22 and many countless other for their help and research.

    Update 03/30/2013

    Sony's next upcoming phone is code-named 'Odin' ...father of 'Thor'

    Disclosure: I am long BBRY.

    Tags: BBRY, SNE, SSNLF, AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, NOK
    Feb 07 9:35 PM | Link | 9 Comments
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