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valuationiskey77

valuationiskey77
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  • Will Icahn Finally Push For A Takeover Of Chesapeake? [View article]
    Warren Buffet has managed to EARN a multiple of Karls 20B of plunder and he's done so by actually learning about businesses that earn attractive long term returns and then giving them capital and letting them grow. Karl on the other hand chooses the lazy form of investing. Use borrowed money to make short-term (short-sighted) investments in companies across industries that he has absolutely no understanding of in the slightest, force management to make short-sighted shareholder rewards most often at the expense of long-term financial success and then take to CNBC, Twitter and whatever other carnival barking media form that will have him to create enough liquidity so that he can exit. The world will be a better place once he's just a wikipedia page entry in a few years.
    Mar 2 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Icahn Finally Push For A Takeover Of Chesapeake? [View article]
    Just like he forced that sale of CVR? Never seen someone step in $#it like that. He is like one of those people playing 8 games of chess at once only he doesn't really know how to play he just hopes people will get rattled and make a mistake.
    Feb 27 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Icahn Finally Push For A Takeover Of Chesapeake? [View article]
    like saying I'd be president if I get elected
    Feb 26 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Icahn Finally Push For A Takeover Of Chesapeake? [View article]
    Watch the balance sheet debt level....hasn't come down even though they've had an enormous operating environment with high netbacks due to sustained high crude prices (Fed/Other central bank fueled not based on supply/demand). What happens when and if crude prices trade off? CHK still has massively under-reported liabilities to drill future wells for 3rd parties that they sold VPPs to and they have long since p!ssed away the cash they got for them. This market is way lopsided with sellers at this point so there is no point for any company to make a bid for CHK as a company. Several mid size E&Ps have remarked how the XOM/XTO acquisition was a big lesson for the majors...that the two styels of companies don't really mix well. This is why they have kept the option to spin back out XTO...and I GUARANTEE YOU we see this. So Shell, Chevron, etc. are probably not buyers. Perhaps you see the large independents like APA, DVN, NBL, EOG make corporate acquisitions but there is no way they will wreck their balance sheet with CHK. Dream on, and keep shorting CHK until the debt gets below $7.5B...i.e. forever
    Feb 14 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Icahn Finally Push For A Takeover Of Chesapeake? [View article]
    Will never happen because of the massive on and off balance sheet debt obligations that still remain at CHK that would make any economic bid much lower than the current share price and thus impossible to sell to shareholders. CHK is cutting spending and predicting meager growth in 2014. Look at what happened to the likes of XCO and KWK when they cut capex, production tanks and you begin the death spiral. THIS is why CHK has not brought debt down, because they can't afford to cut capex even further to do this because production will go down even faster. CHK may be better off than it was under Aubrey, but it is still a long long way away from fixed and will not fetch a bid from any major oil and gas company. Maybe an asset or two but not the debt laden franchise
    Feb 13 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dead Social Networks And The Value Of History [View article]
    You nailed it. Fondu, disco, Facebook, Linked In....all will still exist in some form in another decade, but more as things that had their place in time and still attract some following, but not one that commands hundreds of billions of market capitalization. These venues have become parodies of their original formats by integrating ads, canned motivational speeches, etc. Most people use FB and LNKD as a distraction. They go to GOOG to buy things, learn things or find things. That is why GOOG will still be growing and FB and LNKD will top out and begin to shrink (time, users) in the coming years.
    Oct 1 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: New Highs As Shorts Have Riskiest Position [View article]
    painful short but basically inverse-Schumpeterian thesis of creative destruction is getting better all the time....each beat is weaker than the last, each rally is on lower volume..the stock is wayyy overowned by the big momo mutual funds...the TAM is now a multiple of the global population because after all, every birth is a future professional who a) will want a premium subcription and b) also may work in HR some day and NEED to pay a $#itload to look at a bunch of losers who list their resumes online in the vain hope that someone gives an F what they do
    Aug 2 08:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK): Q1 EPS of $0.30 beats by $0.05. Revenue of $3.42B beats by $0.57B. (PR[View news story]
    and debt goes up yet again...burned more cash
    May 1 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We're Staying Far Away From LinkedIn [View article]
    serenity now...valuation can get out of whack for a while, but thats why you have to have the liquidity to ride it out....market making new highs on Fed pumping QE...each time with lesser effect...each time on lower volume. Only uptick in volume was on a massive down day....LNKD is unliked by no one, is massively over-owned by large cap momentum players, who have nice gains to realize to offset their AAPL losses. Insiders sell at every window, share count increasing massively because it is how they shade their huge SG&A costs. It is scary how reminiscent of 1998-1999 the LNKD story is. I will sit on my short
    Feb 28 08:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • We're Staying Far Away From LinkedIn [View article]
    momentum cuts both ways. Even if the lofty revenue projections are realized, what company trades at 16x its SALES? Their earnings are great if you don't factor in stock compensation....watch their share count double every year as insiders continue to sell. Only thing missing here is the subscription sales acounting fraud claim which so often happens with "one-off" product companies. Its been a painful short, but the valuation will ultimatelyring true.
    Feb 14 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Still Uneasy About Chesapeake Energy [View article]
    The race is on at CHK to sell assets faster than their decline in production. Given that they bought in very late to the oil game and they're still heavily in NGLs (in heavy oversupply in US and getting a smaller and smaller % of WTI price realization) vs. actual crude. So while many peers are experiencing the benefits of pad drilling which can maintain or increase production at lower drilling costs, CHK is still drilling to hold acreage which is very expensive. Their production is guided at flat for 2013...I think it is laughable that the Board thinks they can maintain production while drastically cutting drilling costs. Don't forget too that CHK has sold forward large amounts of its production through VPPs and that is not reflected as debt on their balance sheet. So even if they are successful to lop off a few billion dollars in bond debt with asset sales, they are still just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. Icahn is great at making headlines, but usually knows very little about the underlying businesses he puts his money behind. He is very good at finding companies that have way too much overhead and perks and at slashing costs, but he doesn't really understand the effects of slashing a drilling budget on a shale company. He also doesn't have a very long investment horizon. I think CHK has had a brief stay of execution here, but as they said last week Chesapeake's strategy has not changed.
    Feb 10 01:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy In 2013: Bankruptcy Risk Is Non-Existent [View article]
    I'd be a buyer of 1-year CHK credit default swaps in here.It's a fairly cheap option on CHK going to the brink yet again. The whole credit complex has rallied on the asset sales, but as expected they came in light and late and the company is still projected to be FCF short by the tune of $3-4B if not more. The equity is clearly massively overvalued at current levels given the negative annuity of free cash...and with CHK having already levered many of its other big plays at the operating company level and now selling everything they can sell to stop the bleeding the holding company debt is rapidly losing asset coverage. I am short the stock and the credit looks mispriced in here
    Dec 31 10:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon Should Forget Iraq And Take Out Chesapeake Energy [View article]
    This article's premise is absurd.

    Completely agree with above comment that XOM will not pay anything for CHK's equity when they can simply wait for CHK to burn a $3-5B hole in their balance sheet and come begging to sell assets at discounts to NAV. As far as XOM getting "burned" by XTO I would say the world of '12-'13 is light years away from the world of '10. In 2010 XOM bought XTO because asset packages like that simply rarely came up for sale. These days there are assets galore for sale in North Amerian gas. CHK's myriad (pyramid) of JV's, VPPs, massive on balance sheet debt (and who knows what lurks off balance sheet) make it probably the least likely takeover candidate in the North American E&P space. That said, they're compiling one hell of a tax loss carryforward for someone like DVN who has $Bs sitting offshore with a bias toward North American land produciton. That's my only outlier threat in being short CHK. If I can keep the current management in place for a while, I'm happy to ride this pig into the dust
    Dec 21 01:04 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: Another Step In The Right Direction [View article]
    Even if "Net Debt" does get near their $9.5B target with some cash from asset sales, they are 0%!!!!! hedged on gas and their "liquids" shift is really a significant portion NGLs whose prices are highly depressed due to massive inventories in the US. They continue to outspend cash flow by massive amounts and they continue to "unlock" value. The equity markets are coming to their senses about CHK's marginal equity value given long-term gas forward prices. I'm short CHK stock.
    Dec 14 09:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK) agrees to sell a substantial majority of its remaining midstream assets to Access Midstream Partners (ACMP) for ~$2.16B; the assets are located primarily in the Marcellus, Utica, Eagle Ford, Haynesville and Niobrara shale plays. CHK also anticipates completing the sale of its remaining midstream assets by the end of Q1 2013 for ~$425M. CHK +0.3% AH. [View news story]
    vs. $2.7B originally expected...but they claim the roughly $600mm in additional midstream asset sales are coming. So is Christmas.
    Dec 11 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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