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andrewavitan

andrewavitan
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  • Is It Time To Sell LinkedIn And Buy Facebook? [View article]
    $100 by the end of 2014 sounds about right. I hopped on at the most recent $36 and will hang on with $100 in mind, but keeping a close eye on earnings and trends in social.
    Oct 2 03:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Sell LinkedIn And Buy Facebook? [View article]
    Even at $250, LNKD's market cap is still only a quarter of FB's. LNKD's earnings growth also kills FB. Unless you expect FB's earnings growth to more than double and expect it to trade at a market cap larger than AAPL right now, you can't rationally expect it to follow the same trajectory as LNKD.
    Oct 2 03:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can LinkedIn Justify Its High Valuation? [View article]
    Perhaps you missed the part where earnings growth is shrinking only slowly from a whopping 81%.
    Oct 2 03:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Facebook Remains Undervalued [View article]
    That's not what they are saying. They are claiming the P/E ratio can lower in the long-term under the condition that price will rise and earnings will rise even faster, reverting the P/E as you say while remaining a good investment. Fine. While that is a legitimate point of view, I don't feel it's possible if ad revenue remains the only major source of income. You can point to Google to prove me wrong with regard to ad revenue, but they are diversifying like every day. Where does Facebook diversify? Unanswered question.
    Sep 23 08:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Facebook Remains Undervalued [View article]
    Amazon also happens to be diversified, and in an industry that isn't prone to complete collapse at the drop of a hat. I understand that a high P/E can be fine for a solid amount of time. But I also realize that in order to be labelled a "growth" company, you need to be able to see some kind of revenue diversification in the future that doesn't put the core business model at risk, as excessive ads most certainly have the potential to do.
    Sep 20 10:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cook defends 5C's pricing, analysts set weekend iPhone targets [View news story]
    They just released all new equipment and you're talking about the profits before we see the numbers for these releases. I would expect profits to be the least right before a new release, as they have captured most of the value of the previous releases.

    Perhaps BMW and Mercedes are not the best examples. But I never said Apple's products would suffer if they became "common." I merely suggested that a high price fits a high quality product.
    Sep 20 09:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Still Fans Of Google [View article]
    Facebook is not an appropriate comparable because it just went public two years ago, has a P/E ratio of 215, and is highly un-diversified. Explain to me how in any way the metrics of FB could possibly reflect a fair value with respect to Google. Yes, Google is highly ad revenue too, but that isn't the only thing to consider by a long shot, and it is also diversified into other areas including physical tech and software. Where do you think Android came from? Sure, they acquired it, but its still theirs.

    FB must be removed from the comp analysis. In a comp analysis, it would create a highly positive bias. LNKD is not a good choice either. I meant not to post that.
    Sep 20 09:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Facebook Remains Undervalued [View article]
    1. "video ads on a site with little video exposure to begin with."

    2. To answer your question succinctly, yes.

    3. Changes can still send users packing. And so can new networks. And yes, I'm referring to MySpace, Friendster, Six Degrees, etc. At least I have examples to back up my hypothesis. Your hypothesis just seems to be Facebook is invincible.

    4. If Facebook didn't introduce any ads, it would have no revenue. That doesn't mean you can just keep jam-packing ads into it and not expect negative results.

    5. Maybe I will short the stock at some point if they do take actions I believe to be mistakes. But for the time being, I'm long. But like I said, I think they need to find revenue from something other than ads. Frankly, I'd like to see them acquire their way into another industry. I would be much more satisfied with that.
    Sep 20 09:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Facebook Remains Undervalued [View article]
    YouTube can have video ads because it's a video website. Facebook has nothing to do with video, so what you're referring to are pop-up video ads on a site with little video exposure to begin with. That will be multiples more annoying, my friend. Don't pretend small changes can't send users to a new social hub. We've seen it happen several times already. And no, Google+ would not need to add video ads to their social network; They own YouTube already, and therefore don't need to do it out of necessity, like Facebook evidently does.
    Sep 20 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Still Fans Of Google [View article]
    How on earth do you figure FB a comparable? The differences are so vast I won't even bother getting into it. Should've used MSFT or AAPL, in my opinion. Both are WAY closer than FB, though still with their own noticeable differences of course.
    Sep 20 05:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We're Still Fans Of Google [View article]
    LNKD, too. At least it has more than one measly revenue stream.
    Sep 20 05:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Facebook Remains Undervalued [View article]
    The P/E today can only be justified if they manage to figure out a way to make money from something other than ads, even considering that remains as lucrative as it is currently. Unfortunately, as stated in the article, it appears your guess is as good as mine on that front. Frankly, I don't see anything.

    I also don't rest an ounce of hope in video ads, as you do. My opinion is that such a thing would send users packing in droves. First video ad a user sees will solidify in any user's mind that a Google+ (or other) is superior, and a Google+ will never have to introduce video ads because a company like Google already has diversified revenue streams enough.
    Sep 20 05:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cook defends 5C's pricing, analysts set weekend iPhone targets [View news story]
    Why doesn't Mercedes or BMW sell cheap cars? Question answered implicitly.
    Sep 20 01:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Blackberry, Even If No One Bids On It [View article]
    Forget the real effect, it's the message it sent to the market, which is that they need a buyer in the first place. Why do anything at all to indicate you want to sell? If a buyer wants it, whether it's up for sale or not isn't going to make a difference.
    Sep 20 01:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Will Icahn Cash Out Sooner Than Not? [View article]
    Do any of you honestly think Carl Icahn "believes" in this company? He's in it for the money and to spite Bill Ackman. That's real corruption, not just the perception of it, as some guy above states would be the case if the government just did "what some crybaby hedge guy wants them to do." The SEC should care absolutely zero in what anyone says and simply prosecute what needs to be prosecuted according to the law. Is that not simple enough?
    Sep 20 01:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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