Seeking Alpha

anthonymaw

anthonymaw
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View anthonymaw's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Royal Bank Of Canada Raises Dividend 2.6% - Now What? [View article]
    You're better off to buy stock in the Canadian banks than to deposit your money with them. Buy RY and TD on the dips and you will do well in the long run....Better than giving them your money and paying their "wealth management fees" which account for a substantial amount of their revenue. I'd rather be on the dividend collecting side than the fee-paying side of the customer service counter any day!!!
    Jun 3, 2015. 11:25 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Petroleum - Time To Go Bottom Fishing? [View article]
    The capitalist markets collude with the popular media to release "disinformation" and combines that with large-scale market manipulation that misleads retail investors with the deliberate intention of screwing them out of as much money as possible. The collapse in the price of crude oil is the latest engineered market manipulation. Oil prices will rebound, possibly making new record highs, because too many rich Arabs and fat Big Oil Americans and Canadians are hurting right now. If anything the engineered oil price collapse was meant as a temporary punishment to the Russians and Syrians who feel the economic pain the most but the greedy Big Oil capital markets can't live on $50 to $60 oil forever - they just ain't used to that kind of austerity. Place your bets....PWT might not be a bad one to put your chips on.
    May 14, 2015. 06:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors flee oil sands after Alberta election [View news story]
    Election results are just "stirring the soup pot". The sell-off is a good buying opportunity to go long. No Alberta government will adversely affect that province's major income driver. It's the old (buy on rumor) and sell on news adage.
    May 7, 2015. 07:00 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Royal Bank Of Canada Is Still A Sell [View article]
    I think the Canadian government, specifically the Finance Minister, will do "what it takes" to maintain the Canadian housing bubble for one very simple reason: For the vast majority of voting Canadians have most if not all of their entire life savings vested in their bubble house prices. Furthermore anybody who's watched Canadian television or listened to Canadian radio ads are getting constantly pounded on heavy rotation by those reverse-mortgage lending companies trying to lure Canadians into using their inflated house values as ATMs to go on vacation, etc. Thus a major housing price correction would seriously mess up a lot of Canadian's standard of living the good bubble life. At the end of the day Canada IS dependent on natural resource exploitation maintain it's standard of living, fund Universal healthcare, etc. all of which is now looking more and more like it will be US-style endlessly deficit funded in the long run.
    Apr 23, 2015. 02:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy - The Bank Of Nova Scotia [View article]
    the major concern that I have with the Canadian banks is the enormous amount of debt that Canadian citizens have accrued. yes the analysts are saying the debt is well-managed, but I (and obviously a lot of other investors) are concerned with negative factors impacting the Canadian economy causing mortgage defaults that could stress Canadian banks. The most notable present issue is the severe decline in oil prices followed by the economic knock-on effect of Alberta oil sector layoffs. Already Calgary home sales are down. It does not take a genius to consider that a protracted slump in oil prices would be continual layoffs and those unemployed oil workers might have challenges maintaining their mortgage payments. Already the Canadian economy has been hit by declining demand and prices in other major commodity exports like coal, copper, iron ore and lumber with ensuing layoffs. Hyper inflated housing markets like Vancouver and Toronto further exacerbate the systemic risk to the Canadian banking sector that no amount of regulation can control. Yes the dividend is good. Yes Canadian banks are well regulated compared to the "wild-west" of the US banks. Buyer beware.
    Mar 23, 2015. 03:17 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CIBC: Weak Domestic Bank Is A Near-Term Drag [View article]
    Canada's Big Five Banks are among the most tightly regulated in the free-world. Stability trumps profitability, unlike the "wild west" banking system south of the border. It is notable that in 2010 the Canadian government forced Canadian banks to lower their capital ratios from 11:1 to 9:1 resulting in an across-the-board freeze in dividend increases for some two years in order for the banks to comply. Don't try that in the USA! Canadian banks never cut their dividend even at the bottom of the 2009 US-inspired stock market crash, and in hindsight they were absolute bargains at the time that would have done well for any investor. The housing market bubble and high personal-debt levels among Canadian citizens is a matter of concern though and would be felt should there be significant job losses in Canada as a result of their heavy dependency on slumping commodities exports as a major economic driver.
    Mar 2, 2015. 08:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank of Montreal's (BMO) CEO Bill Downe on Q1 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Canadian investors who want to avoid the gong-show of the US markets especially US banks should take a good look at the well-regulated Canadian banks for long-term buy-and-hold and dividend-income options.
    Feb 25, 2015. 12:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West Could Be Headed Towards CBCA Debt Restructuring If Oil Prices Remain Low [View article]
    The BIG problem is that NOBODY knows which way oil prices are going. Penn West is a leveraged oil play so the high volatility in stock price is to be expected as with any other fundamentally leveraged asset/investment. Some "analysts" and investors alike are calling the bottom, while others are calling for $30 or even $20. Who knows? At this point you probably have just as much chance with the "crystal ball" or maybe try to ask someone at the last Bilderberg meeting. We have seen this whole story play out before in 2008 when oil slumped to $35/barrel only to rocket up to $148 a year later, much to everyone's (except for futures traders) annoyance. If you bought PWE at $1.50 then take your money and run. If you're in the hole like me, I'm prepared to hold out. The stock market has a long record of screwing skittish investors out of as much money as possible....
    Feb 10, 2015. 02:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BCE pulls back from record high, down 5% [View news story]
    Screw the analysts and short-term traders...I'm just holding tight. Was tempted to put in a an overnight sell order to trip at market open like previous readers but resisted, Got in on BCE the low 40s back in 2011 been collecting a nice dividend since. It's gonna fluctuate but in the long run Canadians (myself included) are absolutely totally *addicted* to Bell's Internet, digital television and wireless communications services. Might add more on stronger pullbacks but this one's a core holding in my retirement dividend portfolio along with Telus.
    Feb 6, 2015. 09:19 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BCE's (BCE) CEO George Cope on Q4 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Canadians are one of the most wired-up and Internet connected countries in the world and BCE is one of the major telecommunications service providers along with Telus. The stock is rallying as investment capital goes defensive and favours stocks like BCE for the long-term dividend yield. If/when the Canadian resource sector turns around and speculative capital shifts interest, look for BCE to pull back, a bit but for now it's a good hold. The stock has done me well since I bought it in 2011 in the high 30s
    Feb 5, 2015. 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Continue To Avoid Bank Of Nova Scotia [View article]
    There is no question that the Canadian economy is in a massive housing bubble particularly in Vancouver and Toronto. Oil-patch city of Calgary recently saw new home purchase decline 25% as a result of uncertainty of oil field jobs.

    Canadians borrowing at low interest rates are bidding up housing prices to the brink of their affordability, in some cases beyond, in speculative hopes that real estate prices will "go up forever" (where did we hear that before??).

    In the event of any kind of economic shock, like the current oil price crash that could trigger wide-ranging job losses, those same Canadians would go into default causing the Canadian banks some stress. Ask many "Canadians' what they think a good investment is and almost all of them will parrot out "real estate!".

    The Canadian Finance Minister is in the unenviable position of figuring out how to maintain that housing bubble lest a lot of Canadians heading into retirement lose a significant amount of their retirement income owing to their dependency on sky-high house values.

    All that being said, Canadian banks remain well regulated so there is predictability in their business practices, unlike US Banks.

    Canadian banks have a good track record of dividend increases, with the exception of 2010 to 2012 when Canadian government imposed banks to decrease their capital ratio from 11:1 to 9:1 to reduce systemic risk....Now that's what I call "a tightly regulated banking system"

    It would be a "cold day in hell" before that kind of thing ever happens in the United States of America!!!

    Disclaimer I'm long Canadian banks for dividend income but I don't hold BNS.
    Jan 23, 2015. 12:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toronto Dominion Will Continue To Perform In 2015 [View article]
    The underlying logic in investing in Canadian banks versus United States banks is the fact that Canadian banks are well-regulated compared to the "gong-show" of the US banking, and capital system in general. Witness that in 2008 most US banks would be out of business today if it were not for massive US government bailouts and while Canadian banks got dragged down they nevertheless remained solvent and despite the current consolidation still represent a 300% gain off the March 9th 2009 low AND CANADIAN BANKS NEVER CUT THEIR DIVIDEND during all that turmoil. With another recent round of US banking deregulation it's not if but when the US capital market's shenanigans will cause another self-destruct.
    Jan 15, 2015. 12:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy's 3.5% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Russia supposedly depends heavily on oil revenues for it's government spending so methinks the Bilderbergers are working in collusion with OPEC hold down oil prices over, despite their domestic shareholder pains (myself included) for many many years to punish the Vladimir Putin and make it difficult for Russia to finance it's military expansion goals.... So one wonders can Suncor and the other oil companies maintain dividend levels longer than Putin's Russia can chill out in Ukraine? Inside Job. Oswald didn't do it alone. We...are not alone...LOL, SOS....
    Dec 1, 2014. 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Suncor Energy: A True Value Investment Opportunity [View article]
    Suncor has never paid much of a dividend yield compared to other investments even when oil was over $100, so you'd only buy on speculation of capital gain. That being the case it's highly sensitive to oil prices and you'd expose yourself to volatility of the oil futures contracts speculators who have inexplicably exited the oil trade right now....unless you believe in conspiracy theories. And yes I'm a SU owner.
    Nov 21, 2014. 10:29 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taseko: Undervalued For Gibraltar Alone [View article]
    Taseko's share price is levered to the price of copper. When copper was reaching $4/lb Taseko was very profitable and nobody questioned Hallbauer's leadership. At the end of the day it was all about "Capitalism" pursuing the "China-story" and the (perceived) demand for copper in the economy with (claimed) double-digit annual GDP economic growth. Now that China growth has slid back, Europe economic growth remains uncertain and don't even ask about the USA... we now have copper commodity speculators shaken out, the price of copper eroding back down towards the nominal cost of production, and Taseko shares oversold. There is a pending court case in which they are suing the Canada Federal Government over the Prosperity permit rejection but that may be irrelevant since there may not be much copper demand to support the all-in startup costs. Having worked for Placer Dome Inc. which owned it in mothballed back in the 90s I can say that Gibraltar Mine has been a roller-coaster of startups and shutdowns over the decades. (Disclaimer: I worked for Taseko's parent management company for many years and still own a small position. At least give Hallbauer credit for trying....)
    Nov 6, 2014. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
52 Comments
85 Likes