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  • Understanding California's Solar Equation [View article]
    Great work,Hobo

    Is in the US a bidding price or a cost price a FIT (not in Europe)?
    Apr 13 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar Has Been Facing Cloudy Weather [View article]
    When we look at the past FSLR looks to be the best solar
    investment.
    When we look at their future FSLR will be one of the worst stocks

    In the past they had the lowest cost/W and the lowest ASP with very big profits.
    Most of what will be installed in '12 are older contracts
    In 2013 FSLR will have enormous problems

    Their actual cost of 0.7$/W and their ASP of 1$/W is to high to be competitive.
    Trina,Yingli,etc.. are actually selling at 0.85-0.9$/W and their modules have a 20-30% higher efficiency.

    Why should somebody pay more for less efficient modules with low quality and phenomenal Cadmium problems ?

    They can't remain a top installer for big projects because Memc, Sunpower and newcomers like GCL can install projects with better modules at a much lower price.

    Two years ago Q-cells was the nr 1 c-si cell producer,. Today they are bankrupt.
    FSLR can follow the same way
    Apr 10 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar: Strong Upside Potential This Year [View article]
    FSLR actually sells modules at prices higher than 1$/W
    Tier 1 C-si producers actually are selling at prices between 0.80 and 0.90$/W
    Bos costs for thin film are 30% higher (lower efficiency)

    FSLR is losing big market share (most of what they actually built are older contracts)
    To become enough new contracts they have to crash their prices below cost

    Big gross profits are history. Gross will go near zero.
    Their actual market capitalization is to high
    How is it possible that people still believes in one of the worst stocks ?


    Mar 29 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insights On The Solar Industry's Pricing Trends [View article]
    TSL,Jaso and Csiq will profit the most of GCL's low prices
    PA (price each quarter adjust below spot) contracts with GCL
    - Trina : 7500MW '11-'15
    - Jaso : 10000MW '11-'15 (a problem : obligation to high)
    - CSIQ : 5200MW '11-'15

    These 3 companies will benefit from their low wafer capacity (max 50% of their cell and module capacity)
    They can buy wafers at a lower price than their internal wafer cost

    The next quarters every c-si company will lose money. Some of them will have liquidity problems.
    It is extremely important to look at their financial position
    Trina and Jaso have the best balance sheet in this sector

    When we look at all the important factors the best c-si stock on the US stock market is Trina (GCL is listed in Hong Kong 3800.HK)
    Mar 27 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insights On The Solar Industry's Pricing Trends [View article]
    Thanks Hobo


    GCL's wafer cost at the end of 2011 was 0.232$/W
    With an actual 8GW wafer capacity and the lowest poly cost and the lowest wafer processing cost in the world, GCL dictates the next prices

    Wafers become smaller than 180 µ and the use of silicon will quickly go to 5g/W (use of diamond wires to cut)
    Cell processing cost will go down (copper instead of silver)

    Look at GCL's wafer cost in '11
    Q1 -- 0.352$/W (poly 0.122+ processing 0.23) poly 22.3$/kg 5.5g/W
    Q2-- 0.33 (0.12+0.21)
    q3---- 0.285 (0.115+0.17)
    q4---- 0.256 (0.106+0.15)
    end '11 0.232 (0.102+0.13) poly 18.6$/kg 5.5 g/W -- processing 0.13)

    A total wafer cost of 0.20$/W and an ASP of 0.25$/W at the end of 2012 is realistic
    A gross profit of 0.05$/W is insufficient for most companies
    With 10GW (my estimate) wafer capacity GCL will have a gross profit of 500m$
    Mar 27 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Aftermath Of Countervailing Duties Takes Priority Over Earnings Reports: American Equipment Makers May Lose The Most [View article]
    Thanks Robert,very good analysis like always.
    You aren't long GCL or OCI
    Don't you believe in these companies or is it because they aren't listed in the US ?
    Mar 26 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ramifications Of U.S. Commerce Department's Solar Anti-Subsidy Decision [View article]
    Hobo, very correct info . Thanks
    Mar 23 09:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Plant Development Is The Next Phase Of The Price War [View article]
    GCL's wafer cost/W in '11
    Q1 0.35 (poly 0.123+0.23 processing) poly 22.3$/kg à 5.5g/W
    Q2 0.33 (0.12+0.21)
    Q3 0.285 (0.115+0.17)
    Q4 0.256 (0.106+0.15)
    end Q4 0.232 (0.102+0.13) poly 18.6$/kg à 5.5g/W
    Mar 19 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Solar Plant Development Is The Next Phase Of The Price War [View article]
    Very good artcle Robert.

    Robert your estimate of 0.19$/W cost and ASP 0.25$/W at the end of '12 is a very good estimate

    A gross profit of only 0.06$/W will only benefit companies with a fenomenal capacity

    At the end of '12 GCL's wafer capacity will be at least 10GW
    With a production of 10GW in '13 their gross profit can be 600m$ (enough to remain break even)

    For large PV projects GCL will have the lowest all in cost in the world (cells and modules via low cost producer Foxconn). FSLR is no longer the lowest cost installer and will lose market share.

    The chinese government pushed c-si producers firms to consolidate (poly 50000MT and module 5GW)
    Daqo will be an ideal partner (poly capacity 8600MT this year with poly cost around 25$/kg)

    I am long Trina and GCL
    Mar 19 01:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Suntech Will Not Impress In 2012 While Jinko May Join Ranks Of The Ordinary [View article]
    Very good article, Robert

    Over the last two quarters CSIQ published the best quaterly changes (FSLR the worst)
    Hoku has a very bad financial position and will probably not survive. .
    Mar 12 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Canadian Solar's Way Of Mapping The Industry's Future [View article]
    Roberto,

    Advance to suppliers (prepayments) in balance sheet Q4/11
    - Trina 183.5 m$
    - Csiq 11.6m$

    So ,I believe the CSIQ 's LT contract with GCL isn't at fixed and quarterly adjusted prices.
    I believe CSIQ has to pay the spot price (advantage in precedent quarters but not a certitude for the future)

    PA (price adjusted) contacts are quarterly adjusted below average spot prices of the precedent quarter (disadvantage in precedent quarters when poly prices crashed)
    Mar 9 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Canadian Solar's Way Of Mapping The Industry's Future [View article]
    Excellent analysis Roberto

    In q3/11 GCL's wafer cost/W was 0.28$/W (lowest in the world)
    Poly cost 0.11$/W (20$/kg at 5.5g/W)
    Wafer processing cost 0.17$/W (end sept 0.164 lowest in world)

    A selling price of 0.30$/W isn't enough to cover opex and interest cost.
    I believe CSIQ is to optimistic with a prognoses of 0.55-0.60$/W
    The prognoses of Trina 0.70$/W is more realistic

    The 600MW wafer JV with GCL profits CSIQ
    Can they become wafers from GCL at better conditions than TSL (Jaso and Trina are the best clients of GCL) ?
    CSIQ has no LT contracts with GCL (no prepayments) and depends on the spot price

    GCL needs high cash flows to pay the planned expansions
    1) Poly capacity '12 65000 MT ('11 42000MT)
    2) Wafer capacity '12 10 GW ? ('11 6.5GW built in 2 years)
    3) They have the intension to become the largest and lowest cost solar installer in the world (contract with low cost producer foxconn to produce cells and modules)
    Mar 9 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daqo New Energy's Likely Dramatic Q4 Reversal Of Fortune [View article]
    A JV Daqo + Trina or Daqo+ Jinko could create one of the strongest solar suppliers in the world. It will benefit both firms.
    Mar 6 03:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Costs At First Solar No Longer Offer Advantage Over The Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
    Gebby,
    Total installations with c-si modules are 15 times higher than CaTe installations
    None of all the c-si players had to replace big quantities (nothing can be found in all the income statements I follow)

    I have 20 friends with at least 4 year old installations (rooftop)
    They all are very happy with their installations and told me that till today the created Wh electrity is 5-10% higher than promised

    And why should firms like Trina extend their warranty to 25 years instead of 20 years when they have such problems ?
    Mar 2 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manufacturing Costs At First Solar No Longer Offer Advantage Over The Chinese Solar Companies [View article]
    Thanks Robert
    This is one of the best (and accurate) articles on the internet.
    Your knowledge about this sector is fenomenal and your interpretation of the market is very correct

    With a 400m$ loan of the government Abound solar has built a new fab (they closed the oldest fab)

    I believe GCL Holdings will become the greatest competitor of FSLR in the utility market (their all in cost is much lower)
    Mar 2 10:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
186 Comments
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