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oiletftrader
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I trade oil futures etfs. I use a trading system based on basic technical analysis to achieve gains. I don't rehash news, I don't predict the unpredictable, I don't pretend to be a genius, I try to educate and share observations with other traders, and I do say when and why I make a trade.
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oil etf trader
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  • OIL ETFS- DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS-JAN 17/12


    HOU Volume  2.04M
    HOU  Avg 1 month 2.10M
    HOU Avg 3 month  2.37M
    Volume is stabilising but the 3 month has really plunged. This tells us there hasn't been a major entry or exit in a while.

    Oscillators:
    This is a still a very sideways market. This is where oscillators are most reliable. MFI , Ult Osc, and Slo Sto are displaying some support for these prices. I put on a chart with the ADX along with the more traditional RSI and MACD oscillators to emphasis the extraordinary sideways quality of this ETF trade. The very low  ADX tells us  the  oscillators are more reliable than ever, especially Slo Sto. However this is a very narrow range. We will have to see  what the 50 day SMA does as it approaches the 200 day SMA. 

    Market Indicators:
    NYMO   and  10% INDEX both stay north  past midlines today  . We will have to watch to see if this overall market bullishness is maintained. 
    VIX: 25.61   Interesting to watch. Volatility a bit higher as Eurozone issues and their accompanying contradictory barrage of headlines return.

     
     
    Conclusion:
    Bulls and bears are evenly matched for the time being. Recent US dollar strength will be affected by Eurozone headlines and will in turn have an effect on oil. Eurozone and Iran issues have the ability to move markets if major developments occur. Right now it requires great patience as we are not getting any overbought or oversold signals. 

     Note :UCO (US) and LOIL (UK)  move almost exactly with HOU.to.(Canada)

     If you have any comments, questions, or suggestions please leave a comment. Thank you for reading today.

    Ken

    If you are reading on iPhone you can add a shortcut icon to your homescreen by going to the bottom of your screen, tap the icon of the arrow in a box pointing right, and select  the "add to home screen" option for quick app-like access.

    Buy/Sell:                                                        
    2011 Q2                                                       2012
    April 11/11 Buy  HOD $5.18                             No trades as of yet
    April 12/11 Sell  HOD $5.76       +11.20%
     May 3/11  Buy   HOD $5.12
     May 4/11  Sell   HOD $5.40      +5.47%
     May 9/11   Buy   HOU $7.69
    May 10/11 Sell   HOU $8.25      +7.28%

    2011 Q3
    Aug 5/11 Buy HOU $5.61
    Sep 23/11 Buy HOU $4.37

    2011 Q4
    Oct 19/11 Sell HOU $5.30         +6.21%

     Total cumulative percentage gross gain 2011:  33.63%
     Note the net percentage will be less due to trading fees etc

    Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

     
     
     
     
     
    Tags: UCO, Canada USO UCO LOIL Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bull Plus HOU.to oil price
    Jan 17 6:20 PM | Link | Comment!
  • 2X OIL ETFS-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS-JAN13/12
    The short words are best, and the old words are the best of all.
    Winston Churchill
     

    HOU Volume  2.46M
    HOU  Avg 1 month 2.08M
    HOU Avg 3 month  2.43M
    Modest volume day.

    Oscillators:
    This is a still a very sideways market. This is where oscillators are most reliable. Here we see some southward movement but not enough for a significant oversold signal but enough to at least indicate some support at current prices.

    Market Indicators:
    NYMO   and  10% INDEX both stay north  past midlines today  but a southward turn . We will have to watch to see if this is a momentary downturn or the start of a bearish move.
    VIX: 20.91   Interesting to watch.

     
     
     
     

     

    Conclusion:
    Today Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit ratings of nine euro- zone countries, pushing prices down early in the day.  An strengthing  US dollar also working against oil bulls. The bull camp had a setback with the Iran embargo delays but the Iran issue is still a strong factor. Bulls can still count on Nigerian issues and US economic optimism. Bears have Eurozone issues and decreasing US demand to counter. The stubborness at these prices can now allow for the possibility these prices maybe firming but Eurozone issues will linger well into 2012. 
     Recent events that are oil price specific like the iran issue have started a slow decoupling from the close positive correlation with the equity markets we have seen over the last few months.By months end when Eurozone headlines heat up again  things  will get more interesting and compelling.
    Let's not forget to watch the Eurozone news impact on the dollar and in turn any effect on oil prices in turn.Traders have seen just about everything in the last while and it will take a lot to shake traders for the next while.
     
     
     Prices seem wedged in a narrow range and will need a major headline kick to get things moving again.We can just watch and wait for the next move. We will have to watch for the next trend.  As always Oscillators are the key for this volatile ETF and they are not giving us definitive oversold or overbought signals for a while now. 

     Note :UCO (US) and LOIL (UK)  move almost exactly with HOU.to.(Canada)

     If you have any comments, questions, or suggestions please leave a comment. Thank you for reading today.

    Ken

    If you are reading on iPhone you can add a shortcut icon to your homescreen by going to the bottom of your screen, tap the icon of the arrow in a box pointing right, and select  the "add to home screen" option for quick app-like access.

    Buy/Sell:                                                        
    2011 Q2                                                       2012
    April 11/11 Buy  HOD $5.18                             No trades as of yet
    April 12/11 Sell  HOD $5.76       +11.20%
     May 3/11  Buy   HOD $5.12
     May 4/11  Sell   HOD $5.40      +5.47%
     May 9/11   Buy   HOU $7.69
    May 10/11 Sell   HOU $8.25      +7.28%

    2011 Q3
    Aug 5/11 Buy HOU $5.61
    Sep 23/11 Buy HOU $4.37

    2011 Q4
    Oct 19/11 Sell HOU $5.30         +6.21%

     Total cumulative percentage gross gain 2011:  33.63%
     Note the net percentage will be less due to trading fees etc

    Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

     
     
     
    Tags: USO, UCO, OIL, Canada LOIL NYMEX Crude Oil Bull Plus HOU.to Horizons BetaPro USO UCO oil price
    Jan 14 1:04 AM | Link | Comment!
  • 2X OIL ETFS- TECHNICAL ANALYSIS- JAN.11/12







    HOU Volume  2.12M
    HOU  Avg 1 month 2.05M
    HOU Avg 3 month  2.45M
      There really is nothing new here since the new year. Slighty increased  volume numbers again. A fresh crop of headlines may have bulls and bears jostling around but prices remain sideways.  Looking at  a 1 year chart we see major oversold entries are usually accompanied by volumes of close to 10M or more. Considerably more than where we are at now.Today I put on the Slo Sto as a short term indicator it shows prices in a resistance area.
    Oscillators:
    Technically with MACD  bullish and the 5 day SMA above the 15 day SMA (both not shown) it should be a bullish market but MFI is still bouncing around  and Ult Osc is quite high indicating resistance also.
     



    Market Indicators:
    NYMO   and      10% INDEX both stay north  past midlines today . Continuing bullish behavior brought in with the new year.
    VIX: 21.05   Interesting to watch.

     
     

     
     
     

     
     




    Conclusion:
    Volume is the only indicator telling us a story and it is one of hesitation. Just when it seems oil will head south, bubbles of support appear to keep it pressed up against the $100 dollar area. The stubborness at these prices can now allow for the possibility these prices maybe firming but Eurozone issues will linger into 2012.

    Oil markets held in suspension by what if scenarios of a Eurozone recession and Iran military action. Closer to home, increasing signs of waning demand counter US recovery optimism as US markets take on a quiet bullish tone as we can see on the NYMO.
    By months end when Eurozone headlines heat up again and when the impact of  planned sanctions start is when things  will get more interesting and compelling.Let's not forget to watch the Eurozone news impact on the dollar and in turn any effect on oil prices in turn.Traders have seen just about everything in the last while and it will take a lot to shake traders for the next while.

    For Interest's sake:
     
     This chart was in Der Speigel showing break even prices. If this is accurate any plunge below $80 would bring countering actions by the Saudis.





     Prices seem wedged in a narrow range and will need a major headline kick to get things moving again.We can just watch and wait for the next move.  As always Oscillators are the key for this volatile ETF and they are not giving us definitive oversold or overbought signals for a while now. 

     Note :UCO (US) and LOIL (UK)  move almost exactly with HOU.to.(Canada)

     If you have any comments, questions, or suggestions please leave a comment. Thank you for reading today.

    Ken

    If you are reading on iPhone you can add a shortcut icon to your homescreen by going to the bottom of your screen, tap the icon of the arrow in a box pointing right, and select  the "add to home screen" option for quick app-like access.

    Buy/Sell:                                                        
    2011 Q2                                                       2012
    April 11/11 Buy  HOD $5.18                             No trades as of yet
    April 12/11 Sell  HOD $5.76       +11.20%
     May 3/11  Buy   HOD $5.12
     May 4/11  Sell   HOD $5.40      +5.47%
     May 9/11   Buy   HOU $7.69
    May 10/11 Sell   HOU $8.25      +7.28%

    2011 Q3
    Aug 5/11 Buy HOU $5.61
    Sep 23/11 Buy HOU $4.37

    2011 Q4
    Oct 19/11 Sell HOU $5.30         +6.21%

     Total cumulative percentage gross gain 2011:  33.63%
     Note the net percentage will be less due to trading fees etc

    Risk disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

     





     
    Posted 2 minutes ago by k
      
    Tags: USO, UCO, LOIL HOU.to USO : Canada UCO oil price Horizons BetaPro NYMEX Crude Oil Bull Plus
    Jan 11 5:59 PM | Link | Comment!
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