Doug Roberts

Review: WSJ 2007 Forecasts

Hi Barry - Love the 2007 prediction, what's the 2008 prediction? - Doug

Land Holdings Review 2007 (Part II)

Hi - It looks like the author thinks that land is a good buy. The dead weight on all the homebuilders stocks is somehow a good deal if a non-homebuilder holds it. These should be sells. - Doug

Global Inflationary Pressures Likely If Yuan Unties From Dollar

Hi - Making claims like "Global inflationary pressures are likely if the Yuan unties from the Dollar" would be more acceptable if there were some reason explicitly supporting such a claim. - Doug

Dow 1 Million Before My Kid Retires

Hi - Using the period you put forward - 1928-2007 - then the Dow returned 5% - using the numbers you put forward - without dividends. That is substantially different than 8%. You left out any discussion of dividends.

Why Paulson Needn't Worry About Litigation Risk in His Mortgage Plan

Hi - The overwhelming message from this post is that no bond investors will sue when there are large numbers of bond investors losing $1 million each. Where is THAT from? - Doug

Nostalgic For ‘Morganization’ in Today's Market

This little history could do without the dig at the end against the Morgans: that they presided "over an era of great human misery in the working classes". Wow. What history book did that come from? The history has not begun to be written about our time. The old folks from my young years were from that time - they just shook their heads at our generation's spendthrift ways.

Can the November Market Predict the Election?

This guy is just flying his colors. Not only is there no apparent pattern in his table of data, but the reader has to guess his politics. 2000 was a "split decision"? The reader has to read to the end to find out that he differentiates between winning the election and winning the popular vote.

States Raise Taxes, Issue Bonds, Invent Non-Solutions

Hello Michael -
Love your columns. Thank you for the update on new taxes and bond offerings. The nit to pick is regarding a federal balanced budget. The country cannot refuse to go to a war simply because there is not enough money in the current budget. That said, I agree that funding Iraq without reducing other spending is just another bizarre quirk of modern America. Keep up the great columns! Doug

Eight Notes on a Distinctive Market Day

Hi - There is one especially insightful paragraph, but it is marred by an ambiguous sentence: "c) They are flagging the Fed funds rate changes any more by letting rates drift nearer the new target in the days before the meeting." What was that phrase supposed to say? - Thanks. Doug Roberts

Stagflation Investing Tips: Diversify!

Hi David - Love your posts. What is a good source for foreign currency bonds? There are lots of foreign stocks (albeit ADRs). What to do to get good quality foreign currency bonds? - Doug

Bernanke Actually Laid Out Monetary Policy in Berlin

Thank you Keith for pointing me to the Bernanke speech in Berlin on 9/11. It was very helpful for sensing Bernanke's priorities. Loved it.

Interactive Q&A: Adam Yan, CEO of e-Future Information Technology (EFUT)

I appreciate hearing that sales will be up 59% in 2007, but eps would be even more interesting. I saw that EFUT lost money in the first half of 2007. What is the goal for earnings in 2007?

Did the Elimination of the Uptick Rule Contribute To Recent Market Declines?

Futures traders don't have an uptick rule - they just trade. They have a tremendous effect on the markets. The uptick rule mattered when futures did not exist, but now the uptick rule is just an obsolete rule messing up efficient markets.

Anecdotal stories about volatile markets don't prove a valid association.

Doug

Excess Liquidity: Who's Left Holding The Bag?

Hi -
I just wish to thank you Michael for putting perspective on this arena. It is complicated enough that virtually nobody wants to take responsibility for it.
I look forward to finding out more about some of the key elements of derivatives: size of the market, the illiquidity and the extent to which this area can avalanche into other asset categories.

Again, my thanks.
Doug Roberts

David Fry's Daily Market Outlook

Hi David -
Your lines on the FXI imply that it will go lower. Everybody write about the contagion in China.

Let's be clear - the bottom of the Shanghai market was the first day it fell. Since that first day it has rallied more than 5%.

I suppose you know that FXI are all state-owned companies.

Doug