semperpax

Banking Sector: Worst Is Yet to Come

Who keeps electing the idiots in Washington? "The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves..."

Why This Rally Will Continue

How many long term investors are there today? I was a long-term investor a few years ago. Not any more.


On Aug 13 10:35 AM Nick36 wrote:

> I don't think this rally will continue because the earnings of companies
> are too low relative to their stock prices. And beating low-ball
> earnings estimates doesn't in any way make the P/E ratios of these
> companies any better.
>
> Perhaps short-term traders don't care about the actual earnings of
> companies. They only care if these earnings are better than expected
> or not. Because they don't hold their shares long enough to benefits
> from the dividends companies pay.
>
> But you can't say the same about long-term investors. Long-term investors
> do care about the actual earnings of companies in absolute sense.
> Because the reason why they invest is to take a share of their company
> profits.
>
> When it doesn't make sense for long-term investors to buy due to
> poor company profits in absolute sense. Then the stock market rally
> can't continue for long. Because by definition, short-term investors
> don't stay invested for long. Sooner or later they start selling.
> And that brings an end to the stock market rally.

Time to Take Profits?

If you're wrong, people who take your advice lose a whole lot of money. Can you live with that?

Oil Price Outlook: Steady as She Goes

Are you referring to the same Bernanke who said the sub-prime mortgage problems would be confined to sub-prime mortgages? What does he know? He's been wrong every time he's opened his mouth.

Conference Board Indicators: Recession Likely Over, Recovery Has Begun

Yes. The recovery has begun. Thank God ... or Obama or Paulson or Bernanke or Geithner or Congress. I can relax and start planning my next vacation and my next 9,000-square-foot house. Thank God.

Pennsylvania: Another State Descends into Financial Crisis

Yes. We must. But we won't.


On Jul 20 07:13 AM CautiousInvestor wrote:

> Throughout government we have managed to place ourselves in lose-lose
> positions, with only non-viable policy options at hand to redress
> the problems
>
> Medicare and Medicaid, both well intentioned programs, are the poster
> children for this impossible fiscal position in which the funding
> requirements of these and similar programs...... at all levels of
> government......were seriously underestimated and now outstrip what
> is available either through the current fiscal budgets or through
> borrowing. We have hit the wall and we are in a Catch 22.
>
> As dire as these options might be, I would argue that dismembering
> these utopian spending models, built upon generous instincts and
> much social engineering, and containing spending is a superior policy
> alternative to attempting to maintain the status quo through continued
> spending and borrowing.
>
> The latter will eventually lead to fiscal strangulation........a
> point at which debt service exceeds available revenues. Curtailment
> of spending, which may lead to a self reinforcing deflationary spending
> spiral, does not assure fiscal death while the former does.
>
> By postponing resolution of difficult problems we have allowed them
> to mature into crises through lack of political will, utopian ideals
> and constituency politics. We must now act.
>
>

Pennsylvania: Another State Descends into Financial Crisis

Who are those leaders going to be? And how will they be elected? I don't see anyone brave enough or smart enough to tell Americans they must do with less ... much less. Today's Americans don't want to hear, "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat."


On Jul 20 06:11 AM Leftfield wrote:

> You have laid out the facts. I don't see how a US public used to
> avoiding them can, this time. I don't see how critics can refute
> this. Somehow a recovery comes from this, 3rd quarter? Next year?
> With these irrefutable facts?
> We have a president who seems increasingly Carteresque. A figurehead,
> over his head. But, with Clinton's corruption. This may become more
> obvious as the public gets frustrated with policies that are sure
> to fail in an economy that badly needs real solutions.
> The incumbents are almost 100% awful and complicit in the sellout
> of the US as they are first in line with Wall St. and all other payoffs.
> No doubt it will take a continual hosing of incumbents to reach conscientious
> candidates who can, and wish to, actually help. Americans will have
> to awaken from their dream state which is a real-life nightmare now.
>
> The enemies of middle-class America are enriched and emboldened,
> we are impoverished and disempowered. Dangerous times and the hour
> is late. We have to take the steps one by one to empty the trash
> with each election to bring forth decent leadership. I only hope
> there is time and that Americans will now listen to real leaders.

California Comes to a Cowardly Compromise

Question: Why do we keep electing these fools to public office? It's our own fault for the mess we're in. You get what you pay for ... or in this case, vote for.

New Construction Growth: What Are They Smoking?

"These are the times that try men's souls." -- Thomas Paine

Moody’s Says More Stimulus, Foreclosure Aid Likely Needed

Does anyone pay any attention to what Moody's says? If anything, they're a contrarian indicator.

The Labor Market's Worse than We Think

Don't reform health care. Reform Congress.


On Jul 15 12:54 PM Pat C wrote:

> The job creation is coming from small businesses and guess who is
> getting screwed the most in the health care fiasco - labor intensive
> small businesses. This is insanity.

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

Mike, do you have to call everybody who disagrees with you fools? That simply transforms your argument from a thoughtful, logical statement to an emotional attack. You must watch too many politicians on TV. One of the reasons we can no longer compromise on issues is that everyone is engaged in personal attacks. It cheapens the debate.

Former Assistant Treasury Secretary: 'The Treasury Works for Goldman Sachs'

Republicans are not conservatives, just spend, spend, spend Democrats under another name. There's not a dime's worth of difference between them.

California's Gone Bust

Stupid.

The Mother of All Bubbles

We've got no one to blame but ourselves. We elected Obama and the criminals and idiots in Congress.