Seeking Alpha

herbinsky

herbinsky
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View herbinsky's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Monster Beverage Q3 2013 Recap [View article]
    None of this is any surprise. What is surprising is investors' patience with this stock. Given its lackluster history and prospects, the valuation of this company should be half of where it is trading today.
    Nov 12 01:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Continues To Disappoint Shorts [View article]
    Yup--that's exactly what they want in India, an energy drink. And you can do line extension of some flavor or another in one color or another until the cows come home. Unless you are building the market or the brand's presence, its just more cost. You throw everything including the kitchen sink into the mix, but when it is all said and done, it still will be the bottom of an outhouse. Face it, the market for energy drinks is mature and MNST's share gains may be history. If this were anything other than a Bernanke Bubble Market this stock would be half as high as it is today.
    Jul 2 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Monster Beverage (MNST +3.3%) get a boost of energy from a BMO upgrade to Outperform. The firm doesn't beat around the bush on Monster, saying ""incessant negative media coverage...has created a compelling entry point." [View news story]
    Like I have said before, regulation or not, the energy biz is slowing and will slow further, competition will continue to increase, and profitability will erode. Its just a question of the pace. This is yesterday's story and I take my hat off to those who rode it--but tomorrow the story will read differently. And, oh by the way, insiders don't disagree with me--just take a look at their sales/holdings.
    May 22 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Beverage Has A 40% Potential Gain In Next 12 Months [View article]
    40% upside from what level. I have warned you MNST bulls to watch out for slowing growth and lower margins. They are hitting the inevitable wall that every growth company hits, sooner or later.
    May 8 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Beverage - Even If Takeover Dreams Do Not Come True [View article]
    Like i said, the category is growing more slowly (and at risk of turning negative as the health nazis do their pontificating) and margins are unders pressure (net income increased a mere 5% in the quarter). EPS looked better only because of reduced shares out.
    Feb 27 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Beverage - Even If Takeover Dreams Do Not Come True [View article]
    Goldman Sachs? Please! Only the most conflicted broker on the Streeet! You will see the category growth continues to slow, competition continues to intensify and margins are under pressure. The question that will be answered today is to what extent we will see these dynamics in their numbers.
    Feb 27 09:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sachs thinks the long-term potential for Buy-rated Monster Beverage (MNST +0.7%) is enticing as it calls out shares to see $90 within two years. The company's promising pipeline in an under-penetrated category should keep growth rates high, according to the firm. Regulatory issues have bogged down shares so far in 2013, MNST down 5.2% YTD. [View news story]
    I wouldn't follow Goldman into a cat-house.
    Feb 20 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
    Just to be clear. I have no GMCR position---but I was short at the time when it collapsed from 115ish to 26 where i covered (on the way down). Here is how i look at the company. Single serve adoption rates are slowing and will decline at some point. Competition is increasing, putting the company's brewers and captive/parrtner brands on the defensive. Margins will be pressured and earnings will turn down. The only questions is how fast this all comes into play. This is yesterday's story and it was a decent one for awhile---it could have been managed better and management's unethical behavior stains their efforts, but they did well for themselves by selling massive amounts of stock at high prices knowing that the collapse was coming.

    My judgement is that it will prove costly for investors who hang around looking for this story to resurrect itself again. I will be looking for a new entry point.
    Feb 8 09:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster: Current Affairs [View article]
    You have it right---the tailwind has become a headwind and the category is slowing and perhaps turning down. There is nothing fraudulent about the company and the company's balance sheet strength and free cash flow is solid. The question you have not answered is..."what do you pay for a company in a category whose growth is slowing, where competition is markedly stronger and everywhere trying to get its share of the "energy phenom" , margins under pressure and management selling stock with every opening of the legal window?"
    Jan 25 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Beverage (MNST -4.7%) slips lower on persisting concerns over the impact of energy drinks. Three members of Congress have sent letters to companies in the industry requesting more information on their products and advertising claims, according to the WSJ. A rumor is also circulating around that the company could be Einhorned. [View news story]
    Einhorn or not, the stock is due for a hit. No tree grows to the sky even if it is an energy driven tree. The category was bound to slow or worse, for one reason or another sooner or later (and it is now later), and its leading share possibly vulnerable to competitive incursions as management and other resources were being thrown at its other strategies. Also margins in my view are unsustainable.
    Jan 18 02:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Moving Forward [View article]
    What was, is not necessarily what will be. You might want to measure the number of facing in your stores, because they are going to decrease. The Health-Nazis are seeking publicity to drive energy drink consumption down and it can't be good for Monster or any of the others that have prospered in this segment in the past. Investors have to lower their expectations, possibly dramatically.
    Jan 18 11:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain's Comeback [View article]
    The 4Q results and investor reaction notwithstanding. The facts are the facts. Single serve as a category will slow and competition is heating up. What that means is slowing growth and lower margins. The marketing/management genius from KO may be incrementally helpful, but do not expect miracles from him. The fact of the matter is that GMCR is not much more than a food delivery system, which was innovative for awhile, but no longer. As important, its fortunes are tied to the strength of its relationships which have proven questionable.
    Nov 29 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On A Trip To Jos A. Bank [View article]
    Sandy, or no Sandy, you can go into Joe's just about anytime and everywhere and shoot a cannon and not hit anyone but a salesman. Their business model, if you can call it that, is simply stock the shelves with mediocre merchandise, price it high in case you catch a browser asleep and promote everything, other than accessories, down 70% or buy one and get seven free. How they get away with this is beyond me, but long-term its tiresome to the customer and is not sustainable.
    Nov 28 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond's Restatement Opens The Door To Many Options, Including A Buyout [View article]
    A buyout!! Are you kidding. The company is unprofitable, its balance sheet is highly leveraged, its market share is under seige, management is untested, and its ability to SOURCE walnuts because of its criminal dealing with the growers is highly suspect. A buyout...in your dreams, perhaps.
    Nov 16 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond Foods: Investing Now Would Be Nuts [View article]
    Seems to me the risk is on the downside. They have not been investing in their business the past couple of years and their market shares have eroded. Margins, when they report tomorrow, have to be materially lower than what investors have seen. And stockholders' equity is lower with debt higher and interest costs similarly higher. Earnng power is lower as well. Got to sit this one out.
    Nov 13 05:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
73 Comments
38 Likes