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Hammerhead411

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  • Rite Aid's Turnaround Story Remains On Course [View article]
    Popeye:

    I live in PA (RAD's wheelhouse) and I have yet to see or hear a Plenti ad for RiteAid. The RAD logo does appear briefly on the AT&T ad covering Plenti (which I've seen numerous times).

    I was thinking about you and customer service issues at RiteAid. I did a gluing project and needed some nail polish remover to clean the dried squeeze-out. My wife said we were out so I stopped at RAD to pick up a bottle. I have no idea where this product is in the store so I scan the aisle that has nail polish and 2 adjacent aisles and couldn't find it. There was only one worker at the front checkout but I ran into 2 folks "working" inside the store. One well-dressed woman was feather dusting the display. And another middle-aged guy in a nice suit was basically watching her. So I ask "do you folks work here?" and the woman says "oh, not for this store" so I know both are probably RAD corporate employees. And at no point did they ask what I needed and just continued dusting & watching. Really awkward. I eventually found the nail polish remover which was about 5 steps from the feather-duster. I had to laugh thinking how Popeye would not have liked this complete lack in customer service. Now I'm sure if I asked the woman at the register (when walking into the store) she would've directed me but I didn't think it would be a difficult item to locate. I find the folks at my local store very nice and helpful.
    Jul 13, 2015. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Rite Aid Stock Offer More Upside Potential In 2015? [View article]
    Popeye: Thanks for all your efforts and information sharing as it really helped me better understand RAD. I feel you may have helped influence some activist attention in the very near future. IMO, this company could have an easy $3/shr upside if the right folks get onboard (literally). I do worry about the CVS/TGT deal as that was a brilliant move which will hurt RAD. I also feel RAD has to sell itself as the growing CVS and WBA giants will eventually squeeze RAD out.

    I have one curious (personal) question that you may have already explained but I would love to hear. How/Why/When did you take such a large position in RAD?

    And lastly, as a dog lover/owner, I thank you for your kindness in helping the mistreated animals. You are a good man indeed!
    Jun 30, 2015. 07:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid's Turnaround Story Remains On Course [View article]
    John: Thanks. Your explanation covered this pgm better than the initial mailing or the info printed in the weekly circulars. I still say the pgm (by design) doesn't trigger impulse shopping and that negative impact has found its way into the May sales.

    Also, if I was a non-RAD Wellness+ customer, I'd have zero idea what the Plenti pgm is. From where I sit, I've seen no marketing (to non-Wellness+ consumers) introducing the benefits of the Plenti pgm. Perhaps RAD just doesn't have the marketing budget to do this. The only Plenti TV commercial was by AT&T. I would think the goal of the pgm is to not only retain current Wellness+ customers but also score a significant number of competitor customers. However, the way this pgm has rolled out it probably didn't add a single CVS or WBA convert customer.

    Again, thanks for the detailed description of the pgm.
    Jun 24, 2015. 11:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid's Turnaround Story Remains On Course [View article]
    I think RAD is scrambling over their lackluster Plenti relationship & rollout. The pgm's impact was evident in the May sales (and will probably continue into June & beyond) My wife did a shop for my daughter (going away for summer) and she mentioned she got some Plenti points. Just out of curiosity, I asked her if she knew the value or even how to redeem them. She said "not a clue" to both questions. My wife shops at RAD and enjoys the 20% off Rewards Plus and fully understood how Rewards+ worked. Now you have a loyal customer that is clueless to the workings of this new rewards pgm. Plenti kinda reminds me of a slightly modernized version of my long-deceased Grandmother's S&H Stamp books. Saving points for something nice. My guess is the majority of the points folks accumulate will just expire (just like my GM's filled S&H books were thrown away during her house cleanout). IMO, having a rewards pgm that is not clear to the customer is as bad (perhaps worse) than being waited on by a punk kid with a nose piercing and purple hair. Plenti (so far) has been a customer experience mistake and is showing in tedid front end sales. It will be interesting to see how the pgm evolves (or simply fades away). I'm hoping things improve as I want to see $10 to resume profit-taking.
    Jun 23, 2015. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: Is Downside Just Around The Corner? [View article]
    JB> I agree 100% with your comments/criticism of the Plenti pgm. It seems like everyone else simply believed it's some incredible pgm (either now or in the near future). One has even (laughably) commented that being the Plenti pharmacy participant will entice a BO by Walgreens. Clearly something hit font-end in May sales and I say it's Plenti. My own shopping at RAD has fallen off completely since the feeble Plenti launch (have only filled one AB script and purchased no frontend products). I get emails (every few days) from Plenti showing I have 0 points. IMO, it's a confusing dud of a pgm which probably won't be around very long. And I love adopting savings pgms being an active UPromise and Savingstar user. Those are so simple.....you get actual cash credit (either to a 529 college saving or to your own checking acct).
    Jun 18, 2015. 04:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid beats by $0.01, revenue in-line [View news story]
    Not the "exciting" news I was waiting to hear. This puts more pressure on the company to sell itself now. Cramer said don't worry about RAD as it is fine and is still a takeout candidate. Hope he's right.
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor Company Not A Bullish Stock As Auto Industry Moves Toward Cyclical Top [View article]
    I do remember the Visteon break but honestly I don't recall getting a penny from it. Perhaps I got Visteon shares and quickly sold em but don't recall it. The same for The Associates (I recall this being a financial arm) spin-off but I think that happened before I was a SH.

    I do believe past performance can be somewhat useful for determining if an investor wants to participate in a stock. I'm generally an optimistic guy but have zero confidence that L'il Bill and Fieldsey will take the company back to $30. I do hope that they can get back to $20 where I'd bail out of all holdings.
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor Company Not A Bullish Stock As Auto Industry Moves Toward Cyclical Top [View article]
    Tdot: I'm 50 so I figure I have a good 30 years left in me. Considering Ford has not been above $30 since 2000 (15 YEARS AGO), I seriously doubt it's gonna happen any time soon.

    I've owned Ford since about '02 and it's always gonna happen (stock price recovery) as soon as one problem or geographic location gets straightened out. But they never seem to get all the ducks lined up. I have a cost basis just < $10 so I'll make some profit once I finally check out and gotta say I like the decent dividend (which I have not been re-invested for obvious reasons).

    It's an out-of-favor industry that will not get a strong multiple from the market. There is a growing WW automotive over-capacity with way too many brands competing (something has to give). Ford product quality is on the downside and it's alarming to see Hyundai (which I see now as a competitor to Ford) scoring higher ratings. Fast forward out 20 years or so we should see self-driving vehicles. At that point, there is no reason to have 3+ cars in your driveway when one or two can cover it all. You may not even need to own one and just use a car sharing service. Sales will dramatically drop when that happens for sure. Hence the concern about the current overcapacity WW.

    I wish I unloaded all (instead of just some profit-taking) back the last time it crossed $18.50. I know could've, would've & should've.
    Jun 17, 2015. 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor Company Not A Bullish Stock As Auto Industry Moves Toward Cyclical Top [View article]
    My point was if Ford wanted to go private it would not proceed like a "normal" public company where the board has to be convinced with a premium offer. The family decides (via class 'b') and the hand-picked board would probably go along with the action. I'm assuming this stock (from here) walks back to the low $14's (or even lower depending upon the UAW contract news). That's why I threw out $17. There wouldn't be a big premium applied by the family.

    So it looks like a BO to private might be the only way F reaches $25 - $30 in our lifetimes.
    Jun 17, 2015. 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sears Holdings: A Young Berkshire Hathaway? [View article]
    Too funny. I didn't continue past the article's title.
    Jun 16, 2015. 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor Company Not A Bullish Stock As Auto Industry Moves Toward Cyclical Top [View article]
    I only mentioned HNZ and Kraft simply because these recent deals happened simply because of the cheap money environment we're in. This is a once in a generation low interest environment that's not gonna continue much longer. Not trying to compare a bottle of Ketchup to a Fusion.
    Jun 16, 2015. 06:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor Company Not A Bullish Stock As Auto Industry Moves Toward Cyclical Top [View article]
    Buffet / 3G paid $23B for Ketchup (which is already reaping rewards) and recently $49B for Mayo and Mac & Cheese. We are in the later innings of a generational super cheap money period so the market is ripe for MONSTER deals. I think, without any doubt, the Ford family is considering this option now. Remember FoMoCo was a private company until the late 1950's when they hit rough times and had to take it to market. Also, there would be little premium required for this deal (if it was announced today it would be $17/shr) as the Family controls the voting rights. Common shareowners would basically have no say in the matter as the family's 40% "votes as one". There would be a period of SH litigation afterwards but they'd get thru it.

    I agree with Tdots comments about this last being a consideration back at $2/shr but the company/family was at the bitter end and only a lucky financing deal just before the credit market crash saved Ford.

    Just saying the idea of FoMoCo going private would be outrageous but it could happen with the right partners.
    Jun 16, 2015. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid higher after Credit Suisse chimes in on M&A potential [View news story]
    Yesterday's CVS news rendered RAD as a continuing independent (long-term) operator highly unlikely. I congratulate the brilliance of the CVS/TGT move. How simple....how smart. Just wait till that operation gets traction. Oh boy. It's clearly go-time for RAD to put out the For Sale sign.
    Jun 16, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor Company Not A Bullish Stock As Auto Industry Moves Toward Cyclical Top [View article]
    Tdot:

    What are your thoughts on a future Ford-Family initiated deal to take FoMoCo private again? The Family cannot do this on their own and would need to partner with someone who'd allow them to retain voting control of the company (I'm sure that would be a requirement). The market has negatively priced Ford for years and I don't think that will change anytime soon. I think the iron is hot (i.e. money is still super cheap) to take the company off the NYSE. I'm surprised that I haven't heard anyone bring this viable action up in discussion. I'd love to hear your opinion on this.
    Jun 16, 2015. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor Company Not A Bullish Stock As Auto Industry Moves Toward Cyclical Top [View article]
    Kirk Kerkorian passed away yesterday @ 98 YO. His rumored last words were "fuking Ford".
    Jun 16, 2015. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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