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Hammerhead411

Hammerhead411
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  • Ford: 2014 Downside Risks Are High And Mounting [View article]
    IMO, the high expected 2015 product launch expenses are already priced into the stock. If the WW launches go without massive problems then Ford should take-off around the 3rd Q 2014. Of course, the stock will retreat if roll-outs are failures or if the overall markets tank. Ford is also taking a gigantic gamble with the aluminum shelled F-150. Hopefully, quality, insurance, repair,,,, concerns don't make this the worst mistake in the company's history.
    Ford will also benefit in 2014 as a result of the GM fiasco. Seriously, folks are worried about putting a key into the ignition and lawyers are trying to get "park" orders for the millions of potentially dangerous vehicles already on the road. GM will get thru this but Ford should be a near-term beneficiary.
    I'm long Ford here and expect Ford to break $20 by this time next year.
    Mar 26 09:13 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor: On The Road To $25? [View article]
    I've been waiting for that $25 for several years now!
    Jun 23 09:21 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford's Upward Ride Continues [View article]
    Mark Fields is a joke among employees. I wouldn't even repeat some of the comments I heard about him. He might get the CEO nod but I seriously doubt the Ford family would make that mistake. IMO, the job eventually goes to the dude running Europe (at a loss for his name) as long as he can continue to turn that business around. If Europe turns then Ford is a $30 stock by late 2014.
    Sep 10 12:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comeback Stories: Groupon, Pandora And Rite Aid [View article]
    I picked up a spec position of RAD last summer @ $1.25. I've watched RAD for years and things have gotten much better since Mary Sammons finally stepped aside as COB (she was the disaster behind the brain-dead Eckerd deal). The $6B debt is bad but like how they've restructuring a decent amt at lower rates. I doubt there's ultimately room for 3 major box pharmacy players so RAD may get plucked. However, we still have the unknown implications of Obamacare and how many new prescriptions are gonna be pumped thru the system. RAD and the generics may do OK.
    Jul 14 06:06 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors Are Fine On Their Own [View article]
    Nice article. I've been a dividend fan for 30 years (even when it was unpopular in the tech go-go days). I used fee-free DRIP plans heavily to accumulate shares for about a 15 year period beginning in the late 80's. Now that commissions are so low, I haven't bought any Optional Cash DRIP shares in about 10 years but continue to use the dividend reinvestment option. One of my largest holdings happen to be Aqua America (was buying them when they were called Phila Suburban Water). One add'l bonus of their fee-free DRIP plan is they give you a 5% discount on all dividends reinvested. This is a nice deal offered by very few companies. 
    Feb 16 11:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Rite Aid - A More Compelling Buying Opportunity [View article]
    "and a reduction in interest expenses from paying down debt"

    Can someone summarize how much of RAD's debt has been paid down over the past 12 mos Vs merely refinanced out?

    The Einhorn news today was sort of expected yet still disturbing. This news combined with the relentless insider selling makes things look rather poor for RAD at least near-term.

    Not rooting for RAD to languish as I still hold some shares long. I just wish I had more sense to have sold more at $8. Oh well, I guess this is waht makes the market interesting.
    Jul 28 11:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Rite Aid A Good Investment? [View article]
    Today's news might prove to be the turning point that the easy money in RAD is done. I'm glad I lightened my position by nearly 25% between $7 and $8.40. Missed a 5% of holding sale yesterday by $0.02. Opps.

    I got a laugh at the $25 - $30 RAD prediction someone made in this discussion. That would be great but I wouldn't expect it in my lifetime. RAD is still a 3rd rate player in an already overcrowded arena. I hope they make it but I'm not comfortable with a Buy & Hope mentality on this on.
    Jun 5 01:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor: Should You Load Up The Truck At $15? [View article]
    IMO, Ford is heading to $20 by YE and possibly upper $20's by 2015 YE. They are executing nicely in both China and India. Europe is showing signs of improvement and who really cares about SA. NA continues to be strong and will be beneficiaries from the GM fiasco (especially if Barra gets caught in a lie regarding her knowledge about the ignition switch troubles).

    I got a kick out of reading the $12 to $10 Ford prediction. The only way that would happen is in a total market meltdown then who really cares cause everything else will plummet too. Ford is STRONG and it's getting close to a breakout.

    The only worries/concerns..... (1) 2015 and beyond WW product launches, (2) all aluminum F-150 (insurance, repairability, quality,,,,all TBD), (3) Mulally's replacement (Fields is being groomed but not sure he's the guy to take the reigns).
    Apr 12 09:43 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: Back On Track? [View article]
    Again, it is the excessive debt load that prevents any TO interest. RAD (with a current market cap of only $5.4B) has $6B+ in debt. I agree with an earlier comment that RAD is more likely to offer a secondary to reduce the debt. The incremental sales/profit improvements they've been showing will never eliminate this load.
    Nov 30 08:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla - Reality Is Beginning To Set In [View article]
    My gripe with Tesla is why are the US taxpayers subsidizing a $60K+ car? A lot of folks made a bundle on this company but it's clearly in a bubble (still is after the fire's pullback). No way anyone can defend the current valuation(not even Musk). I originally thought recall problems would be the first real test for Tesla (cause it will happen no matter how good their product is). I also thought fires were gonna happen in peoples garage's while recharging and not because someone drove over a small piece of metal in the roadway. I hope Tesla survives cause it is a real job generator for the US and will also force big auto to up their game.
    Nov 12 03:36 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Still Buy Ford At $17 Per Share? [View article]
    I hold Ford but have some concerns including Mulally's eventual departure to MSFT (is this already priced in?), declining initial product quality and predicted reliability rankings (are they going back to their old ways?) and Europe (still a big issue).

    The last time I sold Ford was at $18.50 but re-loaded (and more) when it quickly fell back towards $10. I'd love to lighten my position but was originally hoping to do this around $19 before YE 2013 (which is no longer realistic). I do expect an increase in the common dividend by 1st Q 2014. I'd love another $.05 but it will probably be in the $.02 to $.03 range (which would still be very good).
    Nov 12 09:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid Does Things Right, Keeps Moving [View article]
    He didn't BUY the options for $1 but rather they are awarded to him and other execs/directors at a strike price (just to taxation). I usually have an issue with public companies adding to the float (at the Shareholder's expense) just to reward executives/directors. However, in the case of RAD, it's a smart tool to attract and retrain executive talent. I think the current team is doing a fine turnaround job compared with prior inept management. I'm in @ $1.25 and probably won't look to sell any till $6 cause that's where (IMO) this puppy is heading over the next year.
    I enjoyed the chatter about the "mainline". I went to Villanova U and lived in Bryn Mawr for many years. I even proposed to my wife at the fountain in Suburban Square.
    Oct 31 02:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Merck Still A Good Buy? [View article]
    Merck is a mess. Their product pipeline is dry. The Sherring-Plough merger was a total fiasco. Merck's troubles stem from a string of terrible CEO's beginning with Gil Martin. Dick Clark was a transition guy basically hanging at the company for 30+ years (production background). Now they've got Ken Frazer (a lawyer) running the show and was given this job as a Thank You for leading the Vioxx defense. He lacks the skills to run a phama company and everyone knows this. Perhaps they shouldn't be firing 15K workers and should first clean house at the top.
    Oct 14 05:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid Is Looking Solid In Battle With Stronger Rivals [View article]
    Good piece. I picked up some RAD last year for a $1 as a speculative play and worried that their last Q profit was a one-time blip. Nice to see some continued improvement and the possibility they are pulling themselves off the mat. Getting rid of Mary Sammons was a turning point for this company. She (and her pathetic team) put the company in a death spiral after that brain dead buy of Eckerd's. The $6B of debt is still a real big worry for the long-term recovery of this company. I still think shedding their west-cost operation to Walgreens may be their only way out of that debt. I also don't think long term there is room for 3 big players in the retail drugstore business. A breakup may produce a $5+/shr value.
    Apr 12 04:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: Take Advantage Of An Unwarranted Pullback [View article]
    IMO, the premium for the tax inversion was fully priced into WAG stock. This WAG punishment felt today was that premium being released and not some delayed reaction to their sub-par Q.
    I agree with you that in most cases the US public doesn't care about these details. The closest example I can think of was the buyout of All-American Anheuser Busch by Belgium InBev. I was a longtime BUD shareholder and wasn't in favor of the BO simply because I didn't want the resulting tax hit. There was a small initial uproar when it was announced but that passed quickly. However, with WAG, you have to consider how much of their total revenue is sourced directly or indirectly thru the US gov't pgms. Although the tax inversion makes complete sense for the company, it crosses the moral and even creepy line. The media would've made a circus out of this by stirring up the normally uninvolved US consumer. It would've been entertaining to watch play out. Of course, if Congress doesn't get their act together, we can assume this and many other tax inversions may be considered in the near future.
    I'm thinking we're getting really close to a near-term bottom in RAD. I had predicted $5's before $8 and we might just get there. If I were thinking about starting or adding to a RAD position, today might not be a bad time around $6.10 (considering it's down almost 30% from the 52-week high).
    Aug 6 01:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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