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Hammerhead411

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  • Ford's New F-150: Best-In-Class Fuel Economy Is All It Needs [View article]
    I was a bit disappointed with the released 2015 F-150 EPA results. Way too close to the steel bodied Dodge and Chevy and not enough bang after knocking off 700 lbs. Ford has got more design efficiency work to do to get highway mileage closer to 30 mpg. I think we'll also later learn that Ford is eating a larger chunk of the aluminum material costs which will cut into the profit margins and potential impact stock (could show later in 2015).

    A lot of anti-Navistar talk here. My BIL has a mint 2002 F-350 with the old 7.3 lt diesel and it's unstoppable (has turned down multiple $25K+ offers for his truck) . The 7.3 lt engine is also (I believe) an old International Harvester product that was killed off at/near 2002 because it wouldn't meet stricter emissions taking effect. The later Navistar 6.0 is a known POS. FoMoCo later attempts to produce a diesel product in-house have been much less than successful.
    Nov 25, 2014. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Earnings Decline For Ford But The Long-Term Prospects Remain Bright [View article]
    Amen brother!
    Oct 30, 2014. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Earnings Decline For Ford But The Long-Term Prospects Remain Bright [View article]
    Yes, I remember the 1980's Town car era for Lincoln. At that time, Cadillac was near dead leaving Lincoln as the only other option for American "luxury". Fast forward, and the competition for the luxury segment increased with Lexus, Acura, BMW,,,,,, The younger affluent buyers embraced these high-quality brands. The Lincoln brand has since lacked competitive products for the past 2 decades. Ford pumped billions and billions into the brand to keep it afloat.
    I'm not rooting for Lincoln's failure but IMO there is no financially successful outcome of keeping Lincoln alive (except for some amazing future success in China). This is a clear case of throwing good money at bad. I guess they are in so deep there's no getting out.
    I saw a funny bit on TV the other night. Matthew Mcconaughey was shown arriving at the airport in a Cadillac Escalade The pop asked him "where's your Lincoln?" and there was no response. LOL. No one wants a Lincoln product (except maybe the Chinese).
    Oct 29, 2014. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Earnings Decline For Ford But The Long-Term Prospects Remain Bright [View article]
    "If Ford can turn around Lincoln as GM turned around Cadillac, and add another billion or so in annual earnings from Lincoln, would it not be worthwhile?"

    No it isn't. Ford has been betting on the Lincoln revival for a decade-plus now and it's clear there's no chance they'll recreate a Cadillac type recovery. You're probably old enough to recall Cadillac as the pinnacle of American luxury and even coolness for several decades. The Lincoln brand NEVER had this status and can only be remembered as making a taxi/limo with a gigantic trunk. I laughed when I read the Continental product name is coming back. Seriously, what's the point?

    My gripe (other than the billions upon billions that have and are still being drained) is this is another engineering/resource distraction. Do they really think they'll get different results than the PAG fiasco? Ford core products suffered terribly back then because financial and engineering focus was diverted to PAG.

    The only rationale planning here is Lil Bill thinks Lincoln can sell big in China. Perhaps this is possible but the Lincoln brand will never be significant in NA. This continues to be a waste of resources.
    Oct 28, 2014. 08:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Earnings Decline For Ford But The Long-Term Prospects Remain Bright [View article]
    OMG Ford continues their colossal mistake of pumping the Lincoln Brand with multiple billions of life support funding. Mulally wanted to shut down Lincoln along with Mercury but L'il Bill and family insisted on keeping the brand. Billions and billions and billion are already down the drain and the faucet is running full bore. Shareholders should be ticked as everyone but Li'l Bill (& rest of Ford family) and Mark Fields have known for a decade that the Lincoln brand is a dead. What a waste of financial and engineering resources.
    Oct 27, 2014. 07:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford's Problems Appear To Be Short-Term [View article]
    LOL... spoken like a true UAW'er. Instead of being wiped out like GM bag holders, the UAW lost their Viagra coverage. Obama simply discarded 100 years of Corporate law to "save" the UAW and earn their vote. The whole process was a disgrace. Do you know how much the US taxpayer lost on the auto bailout?
    Oct 13, 2014. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford's Problems Appear To Be Short-Term [View article]
    Supplying vehicles to fed/state/local government agencies is not "taking a bailout" it's simply smart business. The same is true when one mentions Ford taking loans from the Fed for fuel efficiency R&D as "bailouts. These resources are used (by many) for development of future technologies and is no different than the massive federal tax breaks giving to big pharma. You eventual want to see a PU get 30 mpg or a cure for cancer or ebola then the gov't has to provide private industry and universities with resources for further study. It's a simple as that. I hate it when I keep hearing Ford's receipt of fuel/alt efficiency R&D loans as a "bailout".
    The Obamanation BAILOUT was given to GM, Chrysler and the UAW C/O the US taxpayer and GM bag holders. That was an entirely different tune.
    Oct 12, 2014. 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford's Problems Appear To Be Short-Term [View article]
    Ford is not "awesomely managed" without Mulally. Fields is clearly not up for this job and it has already begun showing. We can hope the Ford family has him on a short leash and will yank him before too much damage is done.

    I am a long-term Ford shareholder and had high hopes for this company's recovery. My last profit-taking was back in January 2011 @ $18.55. Back then, I thought Ford would be a $30 stock by this time which obviously was incorrect thinking. I've been saying for at least a year now that FoMoCo is an un-investable stock (which has been true). There's always some disaster in the works. Five plus years ago, it was the NA over capacity and poor product quality. Then it moved to the complete Europe mess (which continues to drag on). Then SA, Russia and now things in China don't look so rosy. And I predict new troubles will circle back around to NA in 2015 when I believe the UAW contract expires in the fall of 2015 (please correct me if I'm wrong). The writing on the wall is they want to end the two-tier pay structure plus add'l profit share. Add on top the bold move with the 2015 F-150. Any serious launch/product problems could easily send this stock back to $10.

    As an investor, I usually buy on dips but even as Ford slips back into the $13's, I've stayed away. I've been on this Ford road for a long time and it is a hard ride. All I wanted (4 years ago) was $20 and I would've exited completely. Instead, I hung around and it's feeling like we're back in the bad old days of Ford. I'm not rooting for Ford failure as I have a lot riding on this position.

    Oct 10, 2014. 10:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Consumers Accept An Aluminum Ford F-Series? [View article]
    Tdot: I was thinking of replacing my 2002 PU and have been looking at dealer inventory (via fordvehicles.com) for the past year (really waiting for a juicy rebate). What I found (at least around me) was 95% of F-150 in inventory have prices above $30K. Almost all are 4WD. My PU is just a 3rd vehicle and I do not need it to be fully loaded or equipped with 4WD. I will be buying via "A-Plan" which doesn't work with a dealer swaps. The vehicle I purchase must be bought or special ordered by the dealership I am buying from. This is an A-Plan restriction which goes back to FoMoCo providing dealer "roll back" to offset their financing costs (or something like that). The fixed A-Plan price (indicated on back of invoice card is set below the factory invoice price) along with all applicable rebates add up to one terrific deal. I paid $22K (with sales tax) for my 2010 Edge with had an MSRP of just under $30K. There were $5000 of glove box stuffing rebates when I bought this vehicle. Cha Ching.
    Oct 5, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Consumers Accept An Aluminum Ford F-Series? [View article]
    Generally, if you want the base F-150 "Terminix" model you'll have to special order from your dealer. In my area, you won't see the low end model on the lot (nothing under $30K). Someone suggested a cool idea years ago that Ford bring back a simple F-100 model. You know for the guys who want a full-size bed but don't need heavy hauling/towing or extended seating capabilities. Ford should be able to produce a basic $20K PU but guess they never will for fear of cannibalizing their cash-cow product.
    Oct 4, 2014. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Consumers Accept An Aluminum Ford F-Series? [View article]
    The 2015 F-150 announced MSRP price increases came in lower than expected. The thought here is Ford is eating a big chunk of the add'l material costs for fear of scaring customers away. If this is true then earnings will later show it. Of course, the F-150 product is their cash cow providing up to $8K profit per unit. However, investors will be affected if the 2015 F-150 profit drops by $1K+ per unit. Perhaps the difference can be made up in volume. Also, the material costs may decrease as more production capacity occurs to meet the increasing demand.
    Oct 3, 2014. 09:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Consumers Accept An Aluminum Ford F-Series? [View article]
    One mention that I suspect some folks don't realize is Ford has been using aluminum body parts (at least hoods and trunk decks) for many years. I think the F-150 hood went to aluminum back in 2004 simply for weight reduction benefits. If you are a Ford follower then you also realize there has been many unexpected corrosion problems associated with the older aluminum F-150 hoods. I'm not an engineer but it's basically caused via improper connections between aluminum and a corrosive metal (like steel). The same idea as when you find corrosion holes in you aluminum rain gutters. Supposedly, Ford engineers have worked out the issues to better protect the aluminum panels from corrosion. This is an issue only time will tell. I am thinking about upgrading my 2002 Ford PU (3rd vehicle) and absolutely will wait for the 2015. The idea of getting 25 mpg Vs 17 is intriguing.
    Oct 2, 2014. 10:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford - I'm Backing Up The Truck [View article]
    Never said Ford was making a mistake with the 2015 F-150 but rather it creates a lot of new worries for investors. I've said for years that the F-150 needed to lose 500 lbs (and they took off 700). If a full-size PU can achieve 27 MPG on highway that'll be a big selling plus and the F-150 will continue to be the best selling product on the planet. Chevy and Ram are right behind Ford and feel Ford is correct bringing this more efficient product to market first.
    However, blindly thinking Ford will always to the "very best thing" you have to remember this is the same company that bought Volvo/LR/Jaguar and semi-recently developed a product that no one wanted in the Five Hundred. IMO, keeping Lincoln on financial life support is an on-going colossal mistake (but I could be wrong if they succeed in China). If someone tried to document the blatant decision, product, quality mistakes made by Ford over the past 15 years, the list would almost be infinite. Not trying to dog Ford cause this is an extremely complicated business.
    I have a substantial long position in Ford but am not overly optimistic that this stock will get anywhere near $20 in the foreseeable future. I'd love to be wrong. I guess it just hits a raw nerve when multiple folks declare it's time to "back up the truck" and buy Ford stock.
    Oct 2, 2014. 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford - I'm Backing Up The Truck [View article]
    So you're saying if god Jack was still running GE the collapse wouldn't have happened? I say, if anything, it would've been bigger. IMO, it would've been an AIG type of collapse with asset liquidation. I think Immelt has done a decent job dealing with the mess he inherited. Look at all the "great" minds that missed the complete financial collapse. I am a long-time GE shareholder as I built up a large DRIP position over 25 years. I just feel Jack is a guy who should just fade away and stop being worshipped by so many lemmings.
    Oct 1, 2014. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford - I'm Backing Up The Truck [View article]
    Vistor: you sound like my long lost twin brother! I agree with everything you wrote. It's laughable to read people here defending Fields as a talented Plan Master. Even funnier when people mention shareholders voting which we both know is meaningless in this dual-class company (owned and fully controlled by the Ford family Class B shares votes as 1 along with their board positions). It's casino time and Ford put all their chips on the aluminum F-150. Hope it works as I'm holding a sizeable amount of F stock. Oh Alan, why'd you leave so soon?
    Oct 1, 2014. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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