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Bman409

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  • Has Paul Krugman Gone Too Far This Time? [View article]
    Why is there a "fiscal cliff" to begin with? Ask yourself that question.
    Apparently, both sides feel that draconian measures are necessary, or they wouldn't have created the law to begin with. If everyone agrees that the fiscal cliff is a bad thing, just repeal the law that created it. No big deal.
    Nov 14 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Presidential Election 2012: The Economy And The Stock Market [View article]
    The invention of the 401(k) in the early 1980s greatly increased the importance of the stock market, to Presidential politics. Prior to the 401(k), the stock market was something most folks viewed from afar.. now its the cornerstone of their retirement. The entire baby boom generation watches the stock market very closely. The last 3 times the White House changed political parties (1992, 2000, and 2008), election day occurred during the midst of, or immediately preceded by a significant bear market. I'd say that the stock market is as important (or more important) to Presidential politics today, than Social Security policy.
    Sep 14 10:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Presidential Election 2012: The Economy And The Stock Market [View article]
    I take issue with your statement that the stock market rose in 1992, prior to the election.

    The truth is, the Dow Industrials peaked at around 3410 in early June of 1992, and then began a 5 month bear market, which bottomed around the 1st week of October at around 3140.. about 8% below the June peak.. It is true that it began rising in mid October and by election day it was back up to about 3250, but still well below the June peak. Certainly the trend leading up to the election was a bear market and I'm sure that is what made the difference between GHW Bush winning and losing.
    Sep 14 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "The Fed has crossed a bright line," writes the University of Chicago's John Cochrane in the WSJ. It's moved from open-market operations into fiscal policy and the allocation of credit to specific markets and institutions, buying assets, and using its gargantuan regulatory power to advance policy goals. As such, the Fed "cannot stay independent of elected, and accountable, officials." [View news story]
    Romney may have tipped the election to Obama by recently promising not to reappoint Bernanke. That means he has tied Bernanke's employment in the most powerful economic position in the world, to Obama's reelection. This means that Bernanke has motivation to act in the short term rather than over the longer term. I think all of the recent talk about QE3, even with the economy growing, is designed specifically to boost stocks (and 401ks) throught November.. just enough to make the difference in a tight race. The Fed in 100% tied to politics... if it wasn't before, it certainly is now
    Sep 3 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The recent drop in the VIX to below 15 is about the 5th time at that level in the last 2 years, notes MarketTech, and the other instances have indeed coincided with market tops. The pullback in the S&P 500 on the other 4 occasions tended to last for about 2 months and range from 6-19%. [View news story]
    This time it's different!!!
    Aug 16 08:41 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The eurozone's crisis has shifted focus away from the U.S.'s enormous debt load and has lifted foreign demand for Treasurys. Once global factors cede the spotlight, and eventually they will, and as the Fed starts to remove itself as a buyer, Treasurys may be poised for some pain.  [View news story]
    exactly.

    btw, I don't like the current system. I hate the Fed and I support Ron Paul

    that said, as long as we are under the Federal Reserve system, I would suggest learning how it operates. I used to be one of those guys that thought the Austrian monetary school was correct.. .that more borrowing lead to higher interest, etc.. but the facts were not supported by the theory... then I figured it out. That only applies if you have a FINITE money supply. Supply and demand doesn't work when supply is infinite
    Feb 20 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The eurozone's crisis has shifted focus away from the U.S.'s enormous debt load and has lifted foreign demand for Treasurys. Once global factors cede the spotlight, and eventually they will, and as the Fed starts to remove itself as a buyer, Treasurys may be poised for some pain.  [View news story]
    always has been.

    Can you live beyond your means forever?? Probably not.. but as the Romans proved, you can do it for at least 1000 years, if you're big and bad enough
    Feb 20 04:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The eurozone's crisis has shifted focus away from the U.S.'s enormous debt load and has lifted foreign demand for Treasurys. Once global factors cede the spotlight, and eventually they will, and as the Fed starts to remove itself as a buyer, Treasurys may be poised for some pain.  [View news story]
    I think that the problem here is that many of you still act (and think) as if we are on a hard money system, like the gold standard. We are not. We are on a fiat monetary system, which provides the gov't the ability to print and spend, LITERALLY, an infinite amount of money, so long as the dollar is accepted by everyone as a legitimate currency, as it is now. In fact, you can buy anything, almost anywhere in the world with US dollars. They're more accepted than gold. And that isn't going to change, until/unless the US is no longer the dominant global military power. We control the sea, period. You control the sea, you control trade.. you can do what you want with your currency. You folks need to study up on Modern Monetary Theory.. I'd recommend googling some articles by Warren Mosler, or Cullen Roche. Good luck!
    Feb 20 02:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The eurozone's crisis has shifted focus away from the U.S.'s enormous debt load and has lifted foreign demand for Treasurys. Once global factors cede the spotlight, and eventually they will, and as the Fed starts to remove itself as a buyer, Treasurys may be poised for some pain.  [View news story]
    Not at all. Show me where I'm wrong. Are my figures incorrect? Is it not true that Japan has 200% debt to GDP, compared to 100% debt to GDP in the US, and Japan's economy is weaker than the US economy? Finally, is it inaccurate to say that Japan pays the lowest interest rates of anyone in the world? If all of those are true, how would you explain it? Clearly a nation can carry a MUCH higher debt to GDP than the US does, and can do it for long periods of time (decades or more), AS long as they are willing to print money (as Japan has) to support the economy.
    Feb 20 01:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The eurozone's crisis has shifted focus away from the U.S.'s enormous debt load and has lifted foreign demand for Treasurys. Once global factors cede the spotlight, and eventually they will, and as the Fed starts to remove itself as a buyer, Treasurys may be poised for some pain.  [View news story]
    US debt load can literally go up forever. Even at 100% of GDP, that's only half of what Japan carries, and they pay even LOWER interest rates than we do. As long as there is no inflation (which therer won't be unless we have job growth.. something we haven't had in decades), they can literally borrow ANY amount they want, and print money to pay it back. It is literally a free lunch.
    Feb 20 01:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The low yields on U.S. Treasurys send a "clear and unequivocal" message, asserts Cazenove's Robin Griffiths: The U.S. is in a depression, not just a recession. To fix it, we need to be on a different course than the one we're on right now, he says. "We need small government, low taxes, and low regulation, but what we have is big government, big taxes, and big regulation, which is not going to work." (Video).  [View news story]
    we may have big government, and big regulation, but "big taxes"? Hardly. Almost everyone alive today pays lower tax rates now then they ever have before. Taxes as a percent of GDP are at 75 year lows
    Sep 19 06:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shaken: 10 Economic Disasters Threatening Global Financial Markets [View article]
    Libya isn't even close to being the largest producer of oil in Africa. That would be Nigeria. Elections coming up there in April. I would expect turmoil.. perhaps even civil war. That would be a big one
    Mar 22 08:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using the NYT as his soapbox, Warren Buffett pens a thank you letter to the U.S. government. It makes for an interesting read.  [View news story]
    "a billionaire thanking taxpayers for bailing out his company"


    EXACTLY my thoughts!

    all that was missing was

    "We were afraid we might have to cancel Christmas in Aspen this year, but thanks to you we'll be there with bells on!"
    Nov 17 09:14 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Most Undervalued Gold Stocks [View article]
    Check out recent IPO Golden Minerals, which is actually more of a silver miner than gold. The company has the old assets from Apex Silver, which went in to reorganization. Anyway, share price is around $27, with an analyst target of $104 , which can be viewed here

    www.scribd.com/doc/385...
    Oct 29 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The key to an economic turnaround could be housing - yes, housing, according to Patrick Doherty and Christopher Leinberger, who argue that consumers are demanding "walkable urban" real estate that would provide a huge stimulus by slashing transportation costs from the prevailing suburban lifestyle.  [View news story]
    A good portion of that hypothesis rests on the idea that the Millenials who are getting married and putting down roots are likely to "force local government to fix the urban schools" rather than flee with to the suburbs once they have kids.

    Fat chance. If it was simply a matter of someone "forcing the government" to fix the urban schools, it would have been done long ago.

    Bottom line: Urban schools are a failure, in just about every major city in the US. Parents look out for their children, and that means moving to the suburbs.. a trend that isn't likely to change.

    The Millenials will have far more success getting local government to extend mass transportation to the suburbs, than they will getting the local government to "fix the urban schools"
    Oct 25 02:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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