Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View jerzee's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Investment Decisions Loom as a Budget Deal Emerges [View article]
    >>Provenge extends life for 4 months.<<
    uggghh ... survival trial data resulted in 25.8 months for Provenge vs 21.7 for placebo i.e. a 4.1 month MEDIAN survival advantage.
    There were 737 patients in 3 PIII trials of which 61 patients were PURE placebo while 155 were administered Frovenge and 521 Provenge.
    Additional data released by Dendreon demonstrated Frovenge patients survived 20 months after progression while on average pure placebo patients survived 9.8 months.
    Solving for post progression survival for pure placebo patients yields an average term of 14.4 months. Comparing that to the 25.8 months result from use of the active agent we see there is an 11.4 month MEDIAN advantage.
    Now what was that you were mumbling about "cost/benefit ratio"?
    Jul 21, 2011. 04:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Dendreon Will Power Ahead Now [View article]
    Doctor Ray ... agree with you wrt to 'loopholes' and this time may be no different though with a twist. Instead of objectionable or fault finding it is striking to note CMS has kept a door open by allowing independent agencies the option to cover non-label use at their discretion. Why? If we are thinking this is some spontaneous magnanimous humanitarian gesture on behalf of the agency (which it may to some extent well be) perhaps we ought to think about it again.
    Throughout the decade of Provenge development Dendreon management has pounded the table with an "earlier is better" mantra. If earlier is in fact better then this equates to ministering to a younger, healthier population subset. Attempting to move intervention to a pre-Medicare patient population rolls a portion of cost burden forward off CMS books and into the back seat of private Cadillac insurers. With CMS and FDA now hand holding as unlikely as it may seem, its actually possible these two agencies may now be conspiring with Dendreon as allies in order to expedite a label expansion. No matter how justly cynical we choose to be, a more robust efficacy outcome at a lower public cost burden spells win/win for all but the limousine makers.
    Apr 1, 2011. 03:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb: Ipilimumab Approval Brings Positive Surprises [View article]
    >>Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.<<

    Interesting! Does this mean you have closed your DNDN position?
    As recently as March 2, in your piece "A Look at Dendreon, Johnson & Johnson and Medivation Products for Prostate Cancer" you claimed to be long DNDN.

    Just wondering ...???

    Thanks ... jerzee
    Mar 29, 2011. 04:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dendreon: Fear is Our Friend [View instapost]
    A pointed and excellent investment analysis Mr. K! Where is it that one might find an opportunity to invest in a biotech that already has the binary risk of approval behind it, a readymade future market revenue generation probability of 1.25 to 2.5B in front of it, and to now be trading at a pre-approval top line data announced level?

    Assuredly most if not all who have read and agree with your commentary already have or are at least considering initiating a position. What they need to recognize beyond the financial concern however is that everyone everywhere irrespective of their opinion concerning this company already own a vested position with respect to course, magnitude, and speed research will be permitted to take from this point forward.

    Dendreon’s Active Cellular Immunotherapeutic (ACI) approach to cancer care is very much as you say is the “Holy Grail”. It represents a wholly paradigmatic shift in SOC cancer medicine. Gate keeping agencies such as CMS are all too often prove reluctant to grasp the concept of tomorrow. To anyone with a dollar invested and to everyone with a heartbeat, it is critical that at this juncture, with the window for comment still open, to visit the CMS comment page and express supportive concern for this humane treatment modality.

    An investment of a moment of your time may prove to be the most worthwhile one you will ever make. Write.

    Thank you Saul .... brilliant work!
    Jul 8, 2010. 09:46 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment