Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
Bill.. Truly,.. Thank you very much... Your research is always impressive.
The numbers certainly seem there,.. and there is nothing like "Cash on the barrel" earnings to push a company higher. I've often been amazed how a company like BAS with it's core numbers (basically very solid) doesn't stay in the 20's even now..
Again, thanks for allowing me better perspectives on this. I'm always looking out for your commentary in general.
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
Hello Bill,
Regarding BAS... I took a look at their latest "info trickle" and wondered if you thought it's earnings would be closer to the $1.15 you'd mentioned.. or even lower.
I'm still stuck in it (bought at 16.63 (under the old price paradigm) and wondered if you were as well.
Where do you see the stock based on the latest news.. Is there any buying opportunity if it goes to 8.50... or is this a time to stay away.
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
Hello Bill,
A question came up and I immediately thought you were the person I would like to ask it.
Would this make any sense?...
I'm still in my position of BAS bought towards the bottom of the "Old Trading Range" $16.63. and I was content to hold.. in part because I think it will rebound,.. or perhaps because I'm also stupid and stubborn.
An old timer oil and gas guy told me yesterday I should consider buying more at the present level $11 soon as he felt it was poised for a sharp upward move...
He feels that hedge funds control large percentages of this stock and they were somehow going to push this upward.. (something about short positions coming due.)
While $11 would certainly lower my dollar cost average, I wondered is this a plausible strategy... or is BAS a mismanaged firm that is not up front with it's financials and will be in the doldrums for a long time forward.
My personal sentiments were that the market would be rocky and "shakeoutish" at least till July's end and start a move forward in August as the election season nears, and will float most boats higher.
If BHI moves BAS more than likely will as well.
So.. is now a time to add to BAS?
Please..feel free to knock holes in anything I've said.
I can’t say enough thanks for the data rich articles you’ve always been putting out.,.. and for keeping your ear to the rail road tracks for the rumblings of KOG.
I’m looking for an entry point.. like you are a re entry point and wondered if there was something of a timetable to consider as I wouldn’t want to miss it again..
We all saw it’s rise from October till January… and then take it’s new trading range.. Many of us want to be in this stock at some point as there is a reasonable chance of a buy out… and a good run..
While we’d love to see it dip to the 7’s I don’t know how likely this is,.. as even upon harsh earnings (somewhat expected) the stock really didn’t tank… at all.
What factors do you think will indicate that “NOW IS THE TIME TO GET IN” ? Perhaps during some early summer economic ripple ie Europe in trouble again.. or
Is it a time factor.. something to do before say,.. July of an Election Year?
I know you don’t have a perfect crystal ball but for someone who has long considered a position and put it off, ( I own none) what levels make some sense. … Low 8’s? or even now?
An Idea..... I think many of us would love “a list” of possible entry points /conditions for the names we like to follow.. KOG, SSN, TPLM, ROYL, ESTE, BDCO and BAS, FTK, ESPH etc
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
Bill,
Thanks again for the hard core metrics of a company that seems NOT to be indicating what's really going on in an upfront manner.
I hold more shares than I'd like in this situation (no surprise here) and was thinking I'd hold and hope for a rebound.
Should I be alert to anything else that would be a sign to bail at these or even lower levels.. ie share dilution.
I remember last October the stock touched 12.50 or so in the midst of it's last rush down... is that a possible bottom or could it easily break through that and be at 11 . Would you ever short some as a hedge?
Thanks in advance for your thoughts on all of this,
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
Hello Bill, I bought in BAS at 16.63 recently, only to see it plummet this time through it's usual trading range.
Now that earnings seem to have come in below estimates, does this significantly lower the value of the company to the extent of the fall?.. Or is this "Crowd Behavior" or Funds Exiting.
BAS seems to be better positioned than the price.. Last October it tumbled to the $12.50 levels.. Do you see it heading there in a similar sentimented decline?
Back Then I held and it recovered.... Am I missing something... is the ice thinner this time?
Mike Filloon once said to me, every time he buys BAS he gets stopped out... (Obviously due to it's volatile ranges)
. I'm inclined to hold again, watching it potentially sink more with the idea of recovery... Am I nuts... Are you still in? Any perspectives to ride this bronco are appreciated.
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
Bill.. Thanks again for rounding out and making sense of the oil patch data field.
Oh.. one other thing... I was wondering if BAS's announcement of filing to issue more shares would have a significant effect on stock prices.. was that surprising to you.. or somehow positioned to the upcoming earnings report? Any cause for concern...
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
Bill, I was wondering.. Regarding BAS and BHI I've always felt "Fundamentals Should Matter" even though Sometimes it Seems Earnings and "Economic Gravity" take a time out for a while..
BAS certainly traded higher even when the price of oil was lower.. BHI no doubt as well..
1.) I was wondering... If Oil fell to $98, what price levels for each would we possibly see.
2.) Do you think there will be a release or "Coordinated Release" of the Strategic Reserves here in the US and France, as has been tossed about.... or is this just "sabre rattling" to dampen speculation and upward momentum in the oil markets, Particularly now that an election year is upon us?
3.) Barring any Iranian Crisis..What price range do you sense for oil in these next months
While I'd never hold you to anything... I still honestly trust your crystal ball more than mine.
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
Bill... I've always read your commentary and have learned a lot from your understanding of "industry calculus" as well as the general tides. If it's you or Mike Filloon, my ears raise up like a german sheppards and I listen.
My Question is this.. I've noticed that it seems BAS also often follows BHI.. or so my novice eyes have noted. I've watched BAS bounce off lows of about 16.85 many times and then trade up towards high 18's -20
As someone who has swing traded this stuff, is the present BAS a possible buy at around 16.90 to 17.05 and sell it a day or two or more later for a 5% or 8% gain... or am I nuts, as something deeper is looming now that could cause these stocks to horribly tank out of their typical trading range.
Micheal,.. Thanks VERY MUCH... As always, you have a laser focus and finesse on the "industry calculus".. It helps myself and certainly others, learn, gauge and time, vital elements regarding their positions. I Wonder... After this confidence giving positive earnings report, Do you think it will stay as volatile as it's been? ( I try to range trade it)
Or is that characteristic of it movements, more the result of the industry, as well as outside forces (funds?) which trade it?
Mike.. Thanks tons once again.. I did buy in at $10.50 as it had bounced off that several times... then figured I'd put a stop in at 10.29 if bad new came, not realizing news would be after hours. News was good as earnings were 5cents ahead of predictions.
How high do you think it can go in this market with gas prices under such downward force?... I was thinking of selling in the 12-12.30 range.
Hello Michael, As always your insights are appreciated and well taken,... I'd truly appreciate your perspectives on this.
I sold out of FTK at 12 and was looking to buy back in around $10.20 to $10.40 but wondered if we were in a new gas price paradigm where even these numbers were too high for a FTK buy in. Where might you enter.. or should I just stay clear of it?
I realize that FTK is also in liquids but the market tends to beat these stocks if they even slightly serve gas.
Also.. with BAS,.. It seems on it's downward trend after it's cyclical rise to 21... Should I look for a reentry at 16.85 to 17.. or wait for an even lower range as gas again is so low in price. (possibly $15.85- $16.20)
Of course.. you might say.. forget these names for now and try something else.. All insight is appreciated...
2 Small Bakken Companies Turning The Corner [View article]
Hi Mike...
I was wondering,.. What level might be an exit for SSN in light of it's recent run up?.. Or do you think it's a long term hold based on T Boon's $125 a barrel oil prediction?
Hello Michael,. As always your perspective is honestly a bright spot.
I was wondering if the street is pricing in a potentially bad upcoming earnings report into the stock price of FTK.. I think from other writings you are no longer in FTK.. I realize it began to flirt with 10 and that was a signal you thought was a red flag.. I also see you are out of ESPH...
1).Is it just a bad time to be in service providers as opposed to oil producers. 2.) I'm still in FTK at 11.25.. any chance I should hold on for a rebound and get my money out.. or lick my wounds and get out now before huge huge losses.
Michael.. Thanks Truly Again.. I always learn from both your technical perspectives as well as your GUT sentiments. I was wondering.. How bad would the earnings release for FTK have to be, to cause a need to sell?..
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
The numbers certainly seem there,.. and there is nothing like
"Cash on the barrel" earnings to push a company higher.
I've often been amazed how a company like BAS with it's core numbers (basically very solid) doesn't stay in the 20's even now..
Again, thanks for allowing me better perspectives on this.
I'm always looking out for your commentary in general.
All The Best
Ted
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
Regarding BAS... I took a look at their latest "info trickle" and wondered if you thought it's earnings would be closer to the $1.15 you'd mentioned.. or even lower.
I'm still stuck in it (bought at 16.63 (under the old price paradigm) and wondered if you were as well.
Where do you see the stock based on the latest news..
Is there any buying opportunity if it goes to 8.50... or is this a time to stay away.
Thanks of course,.. even if the news is bad.
Ted
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
A question came up and I immediately thought you were the person I would like to ask it.
Would this make any sense?...
I'm still in my position of BAS bought towards the bottom of the "Old Trading Range" $16.63. and I was content to hold.. in part because I think it will rebound,.. or perhaps because I'm also stupid and stubborn.
An old timer oil and gas guy told me yesterday I should consider buying more at the present level $11 soon as he felt it was poised for a sharp upward move...
He feels that hedge funds control large percentages of this stock and they were somehow going to push this upward.. (something about short positions coming due.)
While $11 would certainly lower my dollar cost average,
I wondered is this a plausible strategy... or is BAS a mismanaged firm that is not up front with it's financials and will be in the doldrums for a long time forward.
My personal sentiments were that the market would be rocky and "shakeoutish" at least till July's end and start a move forward in August as the election season nears, and will float most boats higher.
If BHI moves BAS more than likely will as well.
So.. is now a time to add to BAS?
Please..feel free to knock holes in anything I've said.
Thanks as always,
Ted
Bakken Update: Q1 2012 Reported Earnings [View article]
I can’t say enough thanks for the data rich articles you’ve always been putting out.,.. and for keeping your ear to the rail road tracks for the rumblings of KOG.
I’m looking for an entry point.. like you are a re entry point and wondered if there was something of a timetable to consider as I wouldn’t want to miss it again..
We all saw it’s rise from October till January… and then take it’s new trading range.. Many of us want to be in this stock at some point as there is a reasonable chance of a buy out… and a good run..
While we’d love to see it dip to the 7’s I don’t know how likely this is,.. as even upon harsh earnings (somewhat expected) the stock really didn’t tank… at all.
What factors do you think will indicate that “NOW IS THE TIME TO GET IN” ?
Perhaps during some early summer economic ripple ie Europe in trouble again.. or
Is it a time factor.. something to do before say,.. July of an Election Year?
I know you don’t have a perfect crystal ball but for someone who has long considered a position and put it off, ( I own none) what levels make some sense. … Low 8’s? or even now?
An Idea..... I think many of us would love “a list” of possible entry points /conditions for the names we like to follow.. KOG, SSN, TPLM, ROYL, ESTE, BDCO and BAS, FTK, ESPH etc
The Filloon Index is what I’d call it!!
Michael,..Thanks as always,
Ted
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
Thanks again for the hard core metrics of a company that seems NOT to be indicating what's really going on in an upfront manner.
I hold more shares than I'd like in this situation (no surprise here) and was thinking I'd hold and hope for a rebound.
Should I be alert to anything else that would be a sign to bail at these or even lower levels.. ie share dilution.
I remember last October the stock touched 12.50 or so in the midst of it's last rush down... is that a possible bottom or could it easily break through that and be at 11
.
Would you ever short some as a hedge?
Thanks in advance for your thoughts on all of this,
Let's hope we are surprised by better directions,
Ted
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
I bought in BAS at 16.63 recently, only to see it plummet this time through it's usual trading range.
Now that earnings seem to have come in below estimates, does this significantly lower the value of the company to the extent of the fall?.. Or is this "Crowd Behavior" or Funds Exiting.
BAS seems to be better positioned than the price..
Last October it tumbled to the $12.50 levels.. Do you see it heading there in a similar sentimented decline?
Back Then I held and it recovered.... Am I missing something... is the ice thinner this time?
Mike Filloon once said to me, every time he buys BAS he gets stopped out... (Obviously due to it's volatile ranges)
. I'm inclined to hold again, watching it potentially sink more with the idea of recovery... Am I nuts... Are you still in?
Any perspectives to ride this bronco are appreciated.
Thanks again,
Ted
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
Oh.. one other thing... I was wondering if BAS's announcement of filing to issue more shares would have a significant effect on stock prices.. was that surprising to you.. or somehow positioned to the upcoming earnings report?
Any cause for concern...
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
I was wondering.. Regarding BAS and BHI
I've always felt "Fundamentals Should Matter" even though Sometimes it Seems Earnings and "Economic Gravity" take a time out for a while..
BAS certainly traded higher even when the price of oil was lower.. BHI no doubt as well..
1.) I was wondering... If Oil fell to $98, what price levels for each would we possibly see.
2.) Do you think there will be a release or "Coordinated Release" of the Strategic Reserves here in the US and France, as has been tossed about.... or is this just "sabre rattling" to dampen speculation and upward momentum in the oil markets,
Particularly now that an election year is upon us?
3.) Barring any Iranian Crisis..What price range do you sense for oil in these next months
While I'd never hold you to anything... I still honestly trust your crystal ball more than mine.
Thanks again,
Ted
Baker Hughes: A Great Bet On The North America Oil And Gas Industry [View article]
I've always read your commentary and have learned a lot from your understanding of "industry calculus" as well as the general tides.
If it's you or Mike Filloon, my ears raise up like a german sheppards and I listen.
My Question is this.. I've noticed that it seems BAS also often follows BHI.. or so my novice eyes have noted.
I've watched BAS bounce off lows of about 16.85 many times and then trade up towards high 18's -20
As someone who has swing traded this stuff, is the present BAS a possible buy at around 16.90 to 17.05 and sell it a day or two or more later for a 5% or 8% gain... or am I nuts, as something deeper is looming now that could cause these stocks to horribly tank out of their typical trading range.
Your insight is genuinely appreciated.
Thanks Ted
Update: What To Buy In The Bakken [View article]
As always, you have a laser focus and finesse on the "industry calculus"..
It helps myself and certainly others, learn, gauge and time, vital elements regarding their positions.
I Wonder... After this confidence giving positive earnings report, Do you think it will stay as volatile as it's been? ( I try to range trade it)
Or is that characteristic of it movements, more the result of the industry, as well as outside forces (funds?) which trade it?
Thanks again,
Ted
Update: What To Buy In The Bakken [View article]
I did buy in at $10.50 as it had bounced off that several times... then figured I'd put a stop in at 10.29 if bad new came, not realizing news would be after hours.
News was good as earnings were 5cents ahead of predictions.
How high do you think it can go in this market with gas prices under such downward force?... I was thinking of selling in the 12-12.30 range.
Update: What To Buy In The Bakken [View article]
As always your insights are appreciated and well taken,... I'd truly appreciate your perspectives on this.
I sold out of FTK at 12 and was looking to buy back in around $10.20 to $10.40 but wondered if we were in a new gas price paradigm where even these numbers were too high for a FTK buy in. Where might you enter.. or should I just stay clear of it?
I realize that FTK is also in liquids but the market tends to beat these stocks if they even slightly serve gas.
Also.. with BAS,.. It seems on it's downward trend after it's cyclical rise to 21... Should I look for a reentry at 16.85 to 17.. or wait for an even lower range as gas again is so low in price. (possibly $15.85- $16.20)
Of course.. you might say.. forget these names for now and try something else.. All insight is appreciated...
Thanks as always and god bless..
Ted
2 Small Bakken Companies Turning The Corner [View article]
I was wondering,.. What level might be an exit for SSN in light of it's recent run up?.. Or do you think it's a long term hold based on T Boon's $125 a barrel oil prediction?
Thanks as always
Ted
Update: What To Buy In The Bakken [View article]
I was wondering if the street is pricing in a potentially bad upcoming earnings report into the stock price of FTK..
I think from other writings you are no longer in FTK.. I realize it began to flirt with 10 and that was a signal you thought was a red flag..
I also see you are out of ESPH...
1).Is it just a bad time to be in service providers as opposed to oil producers.
2.) I'm still in FTK at 11.25.. any chance I should hold on for a rebound and get my money out.. or lick my wounds and get out now before huge huge losses.
Thanks again,
Ted
Update: What To Buy In The Bakken [View article]
I was wondering.. How bad would the earnings release for FTK have to be, to cause a need to sell?..