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  • Philip Morris International: A Great Dividend Buy Today  [View article]
    All complete fabrication. Just havin' a little fun...
    Feb 11, 2014. 11:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris International: A Great Dividend Buy Today  [View article]
    Analysts at SocGen announce that since smoking is “bad for you”, everyone will stop smoking sooner or later, pointing to the Surgeon Generals similar claim that “All bleeding stops.” (which it does…)
    The analysts also stated that given the roaring successes of Prohibition and the War on Drugs over the past century, governments everywhere are going to start the wholesale banning of and illegalization of cigarettes, offering a trade–”We will legalize Marijuana, if you stop smoking cigarettes.”
    Plus, according to SocGen, cigarette companies are “mean”, inevitably forcing revenues down.
    Further, the analysts point towards the emergence of e-cigarettes as defiinitive evidence that consumers are becoming “more and more health-conscious.” They point to teenagers sipping Red Bull and puffing on e-cigs as further proof that “times are changing–”there is no way those kids are going to ever pick up a real cigarette…”
    One well-regarded analyst claimed: “We predict that global population growth is going to stop, which, along with the declining percentage of smokers in the Western world is going to deal a death-blow to the tobacco industry.” “We view the popularity of smoking in emerging economies as nothing more than a blip..”
    Finally, when asked about the decades-long outperformance of Philip Morris as an investment, one analyst explained it this way–”The price of the stock reflects the ratio of the money that wants to own the stock divided by the money that is told to sell by spouses, children, and public opinion. That results in chronic downward pressure on the stock price because of outside factors that have nothing to do with the financials of the company. That tends to keep the yield high. Plus the stock price supression from always losing the popularity-contest makes the company buy-back strategy all that much more effective, magnifying gains for long-term holders. But we think this is a blip too…”
    Feb 11, 2014. 10:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva reconsiders layoffs amid outcry  [View news story]
    It is always amusing to observe the tumultuous interface between upswelling populism and capitalism. While capitalist greed and profits power the engine that inevitably leads to improved global standards of living (through competition and continuous product improvements and efficiency gains), those same ultimate beneficiaries clamor to "share the wealth" and gleefully vilify the leaders of industry as they seek to undermine and eliminate the profit motive. Income inequality is the motive force that powers high achievement that ultimately benefits all...
    Oct 16, 2013. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Dump Apple And Buy Amazon  [View article]
    Ditto the above. In fact, in this toppy market, a long AAPL, short AMZN pairs trade seems like a good idea...
    Mar 15, 2013. 01:50 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Teva Pharmaceuticals: Beaten, Bludgeoned And Brutalized - It's A Buy  [View article]
    Nice thesis. I am also long TEVA.
    Jan 31, 2013. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Finally - Reality Is About To Hit Amazon Shareholders  [View article]
    Right now we have the perfect storm of optimism as regards AMZN and the market in general, leading to the crazy sustained multiples. While the VIX remains low, watching VXX, there is some instability creeping into the market over the past 2 days. Now with the crescendo of Buy AMZN recommendations hitting the market post earnings today from all the majors, there could not possibly be a better sell signal. Only "greater fools" buying now. Went short big time today. Gonna ride this pup down...
    Jan 30, 2013. 01:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard Company - Shareholder/Analyst Call  [View article]
    After reading Whitman, it seems to me as though HP has the benefit of clear-thinking, decisive, and bold leadership. Hopefully the despairing troops on the ground will become inspired and start pulling this great company together. This could become a great turnaround story...

    (disclosure#1--I am long HP and woozy from the downward lurch of the stock price, but still hopeful...)

    (disclosure #2--I have appreciated the company ever since my very first HP 11c uber-geek Polish calculator, which nobody ever asked to borrow twice, but I loved...)
    Oct 4, 2012. 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The FTC yesterday said pharmaceutical companies are delaying generic competition by making patent settlement agreements in which they pledge not to launch their own copycat medicines. The FTC made the comments in a case involving CVS and Rite Aid (RAD), which are suing Pfizer (PFE) and TEVA for conspiring to keep generic versions of the antidepressant Effexor XR out of stores.  [View news story]
    It has the same effect as price collusion and involves a quid pro quo. Clear anticompetitive behavior. Big antitrust beat-down coming...
    Aug 14, 2012. 09:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Almost 2012, Start Interpreting P/E Ratios Properly  [View article]
    Shorted 200 amzn the other day (of course it went up 5% yesterday.) Doh! Their PE of 105 just seems too darned high given their low margin business model, even allowing for good consumer numbers and the beginning of an economic recovery. State governments are still broke. What happens when other states jump on the CA-TN train and start taxing sales? I want to short some more, but as has been said, "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
    Oct 15, 2011. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case for a Correction in Gold: Update  [View article]
    I just bought 10 gld dec 125 puts, seeing the top of the parabola for the near future. Long-term, who knows? When even my next-door neighbor (a teacher) is giddy about gold, it is time to hedge for the downside....
    Sep 27, 2010. 01:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment