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dreamagister

dreamagister
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  • CTC Media up 4.6% on Usmanov $200M bid for control [View news story]
    Little chance anyone will get involved since both current shareholders and the only bidder are Putin's friends. Only if another Putin's friend will dare to bid up :)

    What happened to CTCM is one case of Putin&Co vendetta against sanctions.
    Jul 27, 2015. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Pay launches in the U.K. [View news story]
    Don't get the wrong idea that it is Apple's accomplishment. Everything in the UK is contactless already for quite some time.
    Jul 14, 2015. 06:37 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CTC Media up 4.6% on Usmanov $200M bid for control [View news story]
    As per press release, UTH Russia wants to buy 75% of operating subsidiary. CTCM holders will own 200M cash and 25% share of operating subsidiary. As some CTCM holders are Russian residents, this will make company compliant with the law, which requires 80% "local" ownership.

    But the offer is completely speculative at the moment. As is anything that is related to meeting mr Putin (Usmanov met Putin last week and takeover of CTCM may have been one of small topics). The law probably to be cancelled as soon as Usmanov takes over.

    Good luck investing in Russia
    Jul 7, 2015. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Options For CTC Media To Mitigate The Russian Ownership Law [View article]
    As predicted...
    Jul 6, 2015. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CTC Media up 4.6% on Usmanov $200M bid for control [View news story]
    This thing got raided - as was easily predictable.
    Jul 6, 2015. 12:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russian Market Review: May [View article]
    Unfortunately, this article has little to do with reality. Not a single word about Ruble, which drives most swings in ADRs and GDRs priced in USD on RUB shares/assets.
    Jun 9, 2015. 02:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Options For CTC Media To Mitigate The Russian Ownership Law [View article]
    UBS didn't find a buyer. Will be sold to black knight (or black "raider"?), probably at discount.
    May 1, 2015. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Options For CTC Media To Mitigate The Russian Ownership Law [View article]
    Overall, balance sheet looks good, but we need to see the fair value of assets in the latest 10k. There should be a significant compression both in assets and revenues due to USDRUB changes.

    Also, Putin's friends are still major owners via sanctioned Telcrest Investments, and it is unclear how CTCM complies with media ownership law. Might turn ugly.
    Feb 3, 2015. 11:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Political Uncertainty Creating Two Deep Value Opportunities [View article]
    Putin just signed the law prohibiting foreign ownership in media companies (CTCM). Good luck investing in it.
    Oct 15, 2014. 04:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Options For CTC Media To Mitigate The Russian Ownership Law [View article]
    Looks like a takeover attempt (in Russian sense). Probably MTG was resistant to sell its stake, so now is punished by legislative power. Bear in mind one of the owners of Telcrest is Bank Russia (not central bank), which is owned by Kovalchuk, Putin's friend. Both Bank Russia and Kovalchuk are under sanctions. It was reported as recently as 22 Sept that Bank Russia increased stake in Telcrest from 10,46% to 37,18%.

    Good luck figuring out how this is going to play out.

    This is asset management Russian style. In Russia, government "manages" your assets.
    Oct 14, 2014. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Standard General Offers RadioShack Lifeline, Receives Equity At $0.29-$0.40 Per Share [View article]
    They would need to disclose additional shares if it was fee for the loan.

    I guess it works in the following way:
    Existing shareholders are offered 1 to 1 rights offering @.40 (I could not find confirmation of this ratio in news releases). If general shareholders don't participate, SG and others buy unsubscribed shares. Total S/O are now 100+100=200m (approx). Then RSH has $100 million of available cash from the offering, and SG can convert debt @.40 to get 300m additional shares.

    Thus, if existing shareholders do not participate they end up with existing 100m shares of 500m S/O (20%). Makes perfect sense to me.
    Oct 6, 2014. 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Standard General Offers RadioShack Lifeline, Receives Equity At $0.29-$0.40 Per Share [View article]
    Based on my logic, the equity is traded according to expectation of future events and cash flows of the company, including equity offering and debt conversion AND possibility of both happening. The stock can trade in various ways depending on many factors, both fundamental and speculative.

    However, you aim to present fundamental calculation of post restructuring price which is not based on corporate finance logic. As I mentioned, your calculations may only be correct if all the raised cash suddenly disappears (which might happen given historical cash burn). If it is your assumption, then you need to clearly state this assumption. In this case however, why not simply put a zero valuation on the company.

    The stock is down today because restructuring is dilutive for shareholders. I was expecting a much lower price after reading Friday's press release, but your estimates are way off the point.

    What is your opinion on why stock closed 411% higher than your 0.17 post offering estimate?
    Oct 6, 2014. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Standard General Offers RadioShack Lifeline, Receives Equity At $0.29-$0.40 Per Share [View article]
    Please read news releases carefully.

    [ii] What is laid out is: debt conversion at 0.40 after rights offering for existing shareholders at 0.40. All percentage numbers are given as a guide to what is likely composition if rights offering is successful or not.

    [iii] This is not how corporate finance works. Your assumption may only be valid if you assume that cash raised through rights offering is transferred directly into a black hole and disappears instantly. Similarly with debt, you assume that it is not written off during conversion, but stays in the liabilities as a ghost somehow casting its shadow on equity. When debt is converted, the amount of debt is subtracted from liabilities, thus increasing equity instantly.
    Oct 6, 2014. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Standard General Offers RadioShack Lifeline, Receives Equity At $0.29-$0.40 Per Share [View article]
    How do you arrive at these scenarios? News release clearly states that ABL to equity conversion happens at 0.40 AND after rights offering to existing shareholders. Also, both rights offering and debt conversion increase company's equity by the raised amount (size of rights offering and value of debt).

    Given that rights offering will not attract any money, company will have 400m S/O and 220m of equity (100 market cap on Friday + 120 debt conversion), which equates to 0.55 per share. Further dilution by rights offering will drive PPS closely to 0.4 offering price, so the final price PPS might be from 0.45 to 0.55.

    This is only relevant if you assume current 100m market cap holds (by pre-market indications its around 77m now) AND given that turnaround works and company stops burning cash at previous speeds.
    If current market cap equates to 40m (assume price will trade around 0.4 after open), the post-conversion PPS will be exactly 0.4.

    No doubt the equity offering will put downward pressure on price, but much depends how current shareholders evaluate company's survival given debt and rights offering cash infusion.
    Oct 6, 2014. 06:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citi: Leverage high-yield to get acceptable returns [View news story]
    What is the original title of this Citi paper?
    Sep 9, 2014. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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