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UndiversifyBC

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  • Is Mosaic A Good Stock To Buy? [View article]
    Mosaic isn't as interesting as it was before the run-up, but it's still interesting.

    Sector seems to be rationalizing itself pretty well and I'm giving a Uralkali/Belaruskali reconcilement a 60% to 70% chance of happening which will probably bump the shares.

    On the other hand, next few quarters results might be a little messy.

    FYI, long MOS.
    Feb 23 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Range Resources May Be A Good Pick For 2014 [View article]
    I've been pretty skeptical of RRC for awhile and am short the stock. Those interested might want to review COG's latest release and their Marcellus action.
    Feb 23 10:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldcorp: Buy Low Now And Sell High When Investors Love Gold Miners Again [View article]
    It would appear picking the bottom or top in gold prices is extremely difficult. Since most of the buying is based on psychology rather than physical use, even hard demand in the Chinese and Indian markets isn't for mfg for the most part, it's easy to see why.

    That being said, the miners all appear to be taking the necessary steps to survive the downturn and prosper in better times. I basically watch op cash flow related to cap ex and on that basis things are getting better. I don't follow GG but did pick up some NEM recently and am eyeing adding to KGC. Which admittedly is a hold over from happier gold days.
    Feb 23 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aeropostale: A Beaten-Up Retail Stock That May Hold Opportunity For Contrarian Investors [View article]
    I agree ARO has some potential upside. Any sort of decent same-store number will probably produce a dc-bounce but longer term its up to fashion, which is difficult to call.

    For now the Urban Outfitter style seems to be in, while Abercrombie, American Eagle, and ARO happens to be less popular.

    That being said it might not be a bad bet that ARO's offerings will meet up with what happens to be fashionable, eventually.
    Nov 8 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Definitive Proof That QE Doesn't Create Jobs [View article]
    While I'm pretty skeptical on the headline jobs report numbers, I'm very skeptical on any real long-lasting economic benefit from our extended QE.

    Evidence might be found in the puzzling Table A-7 numbers from the BLS jobs report. This info is the non-seasonally adjusted labor force compared to population numbers for those over the age of 16.

    Looking over the historical, though it looks like the population rose roughly 2.5 million from Aug12 to Oct13, which makes sense, the labor force numbers have been basically flat. Far different than what the headlines would indicate.

    Anybody know a reason why the diff ?
    Nov 8 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Perfect Storm Coming For The Muni Market? [View article]
    I generally agree with your thesis. Eventually muni's are going to suffer but when it happens to more than some outliers is a question.

    The problem is that since government issuers first priority is to keeping their gig going, which means access to borrowing, and servicing the citizenry comes in way down the line. The governments have a lot of leeway to stick it to the citizens so that the books are balanced.

    I'm guessing that in Jeff County and as I heard in Detroit, the citizens were pretty much on their own by the time the munis had to declare bankruptcy.

    Munis will increasingly be in trouble but unfortunately we the people will probably have to endure significantly more service cuts before the troubles become common place.
    Aug 20 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EBay As An Investment: Not The Worst, But Still Bad [View article]
    In general, the subtracting net cash for operating profit type valuation purposes isn't best. Assuming they maybe use something like 80% of the cash for a buyback probably gives you a more accurate take on valuation.

    If you're looking at some type of LBO valuation where you want to see what a leveraged up company might get taken out at, then net cash straight up is probably a valid component.
    Aug 20 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Happens When You Tell Indians To Stop Buying Gold? [View article]
    A great topic. It might be likely the Indian government will take further steps against gold if the country goes deeper into crisis.

    But they can't temper gold demand indefinitely, just like prohibition in the US, not being able to get it makes people want it even more.

    I'd think this pent up demand, plus restrained production in the industry can only help support pricing in the future.
    Aug 20 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • EBay As An Investment: Not The Worst, But Still Bad [View article]
    I generally agree with the article and I'm short Ebay.

    Mainly because of its valuation and its increased reliance on the "Bill Me Later" initiative. It seems ripe for pushing growth now but, no pun intended, paying later.
    Aug 20 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exploding The Natural Gas Supply Myth: An Interview With Bill Powers [View article]
    Mr. Powers is probably right longer term but over the short term (at least three years) there is plenty of nat gas ready to come on line when certain infrastructure is built or prices rise even moderately.

    Check out the Statoil Conf Call here at SA, they stated they have a lot of Marcellus pads ready to go when the time is right. There is also a very good chance that as many frac oil reserves deplete those operators might want to sell the stuff. I believe either Kodiak or Northern mentioned something like that from the Bakken

    Eventually nat gas will be a lot more expensive as demand picks up and cheap supply is depleted but I don't see it for awhile.
    Jul 17 12:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • With Haswell Faltering, Baytrail Is Make Or Break For Intel [View article]
    INTC has to be looked at in a forward manner. The only thing relevant about the legacy PC business is the cash flow to support new initiatives.

    The mobile battle is going to be in the next evolution of the tablet and smartphone. These things are already so commoditized that the producers are falling all over themselves to discount them and that's only going to get worse.

    I just bought an all-in-one PC where they stuck all the computer innards into the monitor. In essence it's a heavy tablet on a stand with a keyboard. As they continue to shrink sizes, it'll eventually become more a powerful tablet. A lot more useful than the tablets offered now.

    Then the key is marketing by the mfgs like Dell & Lenovo etc. The all-in-one cost about $450. If they can package that future smaller, probably mobile but still powerful all-in-one with a cheapo integrated throw away tablet for $550 or less someday. It's not hard to believe that both could have a lot of INTC involved. Add in the possibility of an integrated smartphone added to the package and it looks like a lot of potential may be out there.
    Jul 15 09:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Major Gold Miner Go Broke? [View article]
    Thinking further on the concept.

    A voucher for a certain % of the companies inventory of gold instead of a cash dividend might work. It would save cash for the company and the value of the voucher would increase if the price of gold rises. For example, if the voucher was worth 1 oz at $1200/per, the shareholder would be pretty happy holding the 1 oz voucher if gold went to $1500/per.

    The company would probably put in some sort of buyback provision and minimum physical delivery language but the idea seems to be workable

    Of course if the company goes out of business, the vouchers become worthless but in that case shareholders probably have more concerns than their div voucher.
    Jul 15 12:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AMD: Overvalued And May Raise Equity Capital [View article]
    I don't really follow AMD so I'll defer to the more knowing there but I think AMD's success in the game box space and their ARM server moves are going to be good for them and INTC, which I follow, and more a detriment to other chipmakers.

    If, and it might be a big if, AMD and/or INTC hold the server space, dominate the game box space and make inroads into mobile, it doesn't seem inconceivable that they could be the ones battling again for premier position in chips and put incredible pressure on the QCOM's and NVDA's etc. eventually.
    Jul 14 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will A Major Gold Miner Go Broke? [View article]
    Koge,

    Gold/ Silver as a dividend. That's a really interesting and creative idea. I haven't thought it through but on its face, I like it.
    Jul 14 11:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Not A Ponzi Scheme; Not Even 'Ponzi-Like' [View article]
    Again, as in the other article, I urge caution and learning as much about this company as possible rather than rely on either this bullish article or the negative ones for guidance.

    I think the gist of both articles which seems to deal with aspects of the financial engineering going on in the company rather than any real business advantage or disadvantage shows how tricky this situation could be. Did either article even mention oil?

    For instance, if one looked a little closer at the footnote after the asset/liability graphic demonstrated above but in the latest 10-Q, it mentioned that the realized and unrealized loss on the net spread of the derivatives was around $100 million for the quarter. That's a reduction of roughly 25% of the positive asset spread.

    I didn't look at it closely but the $100 million unrealized & realized loss vs. a $2 million gain in the prior year quarter at least implies an underlying financial engineering volatility that probably should encourage caution and knowledge even more.
    Jul 14 11:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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